Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

Both existing housing inventory and home prices have been rising together year over year, which might seem odd at first glance since existing home sales are trending near all-time lows. When you connect the dots, this is a short and simple answer to why housing inventory and home prices are both rising. Sales descended 2.8%

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 482

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. Since 2020, the seasonal inventory bump has happened later than usual — not until March or April.

Inventory 525

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 525

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 All this is happening while housing permits have fallen noticeably from the recent peak.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 545

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. Total housing inventory fell in this report, the third report in a row that shows total inventory has decreased.

Inventory 493

Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 493

Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2021

Home prices continue to increase as national inventory levels remain low heading into August. But relief for buyers could be coming in the next 12 months. gain by this time next year, as ongoing affordability challenges deter potential buyers — as well as an uptick in new for sale listings. Home prices increased 2.3%

Buyers 514

Buyers Inventory Realtors Contracts 514

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. Housing inventory.

Housing Market 546

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 546

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. This is because the biggest buyers of homes are mortgage buyers.

Housing Market 482

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 482

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. Traditionally, inventory levels have been between 2 million to 2.5

New Listings 508

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 508

Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month However, negative year-over-year inventory is not what we want to see.

Housing Market 542

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 542

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

In addition, this is the fourth straight month of inventory declining, while days on the market are growingl! Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.” ” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well.

Inventory 531

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Sellers 531

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2020

No, this is not a new home sales housing bubble as we are far from total new home sales being where they were in 2005. The monthly supply of new homes was mostly higher every month in the previous expansion (2008-2019) than any period from 1996-2005. At that time, the new home sales sector got so bad that I put it in the penalty box.

Inventory 532

Inventory Buyers Housing Market Mortgage 532

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 544

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. million listings.

Inventory 397

Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 10, 2024

Ive been doing this since 2005 and I tell clients that Ive never seen a market like this, so we have to navigate it together. According to data from Altos Research, for-sale inventory has risen from 1,864 on a 90-day rolling basis in May to 3,019 today. Its unpredictable, said Teena Jackson, a Redfin agent in Cincinnati.

Housing Market 370

Housing Market Marketing New Listings Sellers 370

Housing Wire

JUNE 22, 2023

I first used the term savagely unhealthy in March of 2022 because we had solid demand while inventory was at all-time lows. Credit channels and inventory channels both changed after 2010 because of the qualified mortgage laws and the 2005 bankruptcy reform laws. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month million units, up 3.8%

Housing Market 526

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Law 526

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much. It’s also driven more by mortgage buyers who tend to be older and make more money than the new-home buyers. First, total home sales should be 6.2

Mortgage 505

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. If we had a massive credit boom-to-bust, inventory would have skyrocketed in 2022. NAR Total Inventory Data going back to 1982. housing credit channels have changed.

Housing Market 539

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 539

Housing Wire

JULY 24, 2024

Active inventory above pre-COVID-19 levels The new home sales market doesn’t provide millions of active completed homes for sale, but we are currently back above the pre-COVID-19 levels. months For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 476,000.

Construction 488

Construction Inventory Mortgage Marketing 488

Housing Wire

JULY 1, 2021

“Although low and stable mortgage rates have kept the housing market booming over recent months, a deterioration in affordability and for-sale inventory has led to a market slowdown.”. Even Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said this came as surprise given the number of would-be buyers getting priced out in numerous markets.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Housing Market Realtors Inventory 511

Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. “Buyers are still lining up a feverish pace,” Yun said. ” Contract signings on new homes increased 13.1%

Supply Chain 448

Supply Chain Inventory Buyers Realtors 448

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

This can lead to home prices getting out of control , especially when total inventory gets to all-time lows. The National Association of Realtors’ total Inventory data shows that historically we have between 2 to 2.5 million homes for sale, but in 2022 we got as low as 870,000 in total inventory.

Inventory 544

Inventory Law Housing Market Design 544

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month a record low in the series dating back to 1963, while the share of homes sold-but-not-yet-started was at a level only seen during the housing bubble in 2005.” The West came in second at a 17.3%

Construction 438

Construction Inventory Buyers Marketing 438

Housing Wire

MARCH 21, 2023

We simply don’t have enough products for homebuyers, creating forced bidding in a low-inventory environment. Look at the Inventory data below. From NAR: Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January & up 15.3% Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Housing Market Inventory Law 511

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. Housing demand has been stable for the past few years; we have never had a credit boom in demand since 2002-2005. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month

Housing Market 505

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

They don’t ever have to have the conversation about how low their total payment is in the new home they’re buying, unlike some of their buyers (which explains higher cancellation rates). If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. This represents a supply of 7.9

Inventory 501

Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 501

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Inventory, which has been falling for years, broke to all-time lows in 2020. We didn’t have a seasonal push in inventory in 2020, and things worsened in 2021. Of course, this has brought back some inventory, as demand weakness always creates inventory through accumulation. million active listings, but at just 1.28

Sellers 514

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 514

Housing Wire

APRIL 1, 2021

“This is confirmation that while purchase demand remains strong, the marginal buyer is feeling the affordability squeeze resulting from the increases in mortgage rates and home prices we’ve experienced in recent months.”. The housing market is in desperate need of more inventory to cool price growth and preserve affordability.

Mortgage 448

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Marketing 448

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. We were told that population growth is slowing, we were told that Americans would panic sell and that massive inventory would hit the marketplace once rates got to 4%. Wait, what? I use the 1.52-1.93

Housing Market 528

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 528

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. This means new homes — with all the bells and whistles — can peel some buyers from the existing home sales market, especially if they pay down mortgage rates. Now on to the report. This represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate.

Construction 516

Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 516

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2022

2012: What they said: Shadow inventory will cause prices to fall. The reality: Inventory broke down in 2012, and the monthly supply data got below 6.0 The “shadow inventory” was not an issue as it took years to get rid of the distressed supply from the housing bubble years. million of inventory is normal.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

“In a still-competitive housing market, more well-off home buyers were able to have their bids accepted by offering larger down payments and even by paying cash.” However, a significant majority of buyers (80%) financed their home purchase in 2023, up from 78% in 2022 but still down from 87% two years ago, according to the survey.

Real Estate Agent 435

Real Estate Agent Real Estate Agents Sellers 435

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2021

Low mortgage rates and incredible buyer demand won out over pressure from soaring lumber prices in March as single-family new home sales rose 20.7% With so many buyers snatching up new homes at the ready, inventory fell to 3.6 With so many buyers snatching up new homes at the ready, inventory fell to 3.6

Buyers 505

Buyers Housing Market Marketing Inventory 505

Housing Wire

JULY 29, 2021

Though the desire for buyers to purchase a new home remains strong, skyrocketing prices are putting the dream out of reach for some buyers, economists in the housing industry said. May’s 8% increase was the highest jump for that month since 2005, according to NAR. The overall pending home sales index fell 1.9% in 2022. .

Marketing 468

Marketing Buyers Realtors Real Estate 468

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. Homeowner tenure is projected to remain flat, but a larger share of homeowners remaining in place is also contributing to an inventory shortage, according to the report. years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

Property Taxes 488

Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 488

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

The home-price growth from 2020 through 2022 has been so unhealthy that I’ve labeled this a savagely unhealthy housing market as inventory has once again collapsed on a year-over-year basis in 2022. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data. 2014 was the very last year total housing inventory grew in America.

Housing Market 511

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 511