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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Housing credit channels directly impact housing inventory channels. Home prices escalated out of control after 2020 and when we look at why that happened, we can see that housing credit mattered more to inventory data than most people realize. This matters because inventory was already heading toward all-time lows before COVID-19.

Inventory 502
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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 498
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Inventory is 19% higher than a year ago: Altos

Housing Wire

And as a result, as inventory builds , the sales growth trend shows signs of slowing. We know that these higher mortgage rates are deterring buyers, and inventory is building. Will higher rates keep a cap on inventory like it did a year ago? Inventory is up in lock step. But will rates deter sellers also?

Inventory 477
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Why is housing inventory growing with higher mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 532
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Tight credit, high rates and low inventory add to buyers’ affordability struggles 

Housing Wire

Tightening credit availability, elevated rates, inventory shortages and strengthening home prices are adding to affordability challenges, the report notes. One key contributor to the affordability challenges is dwindling inventory nationwide. Since the start of 2023, inventory has deteriorated in 95% of major markets, the report notes.

Inventory 393
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What will lower mortgage rates do to spring housing inventory?

Housing Wire

However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 534
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How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024?

Housing Wire

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

Inventory 513