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There were 45,000 newlistings for single-family homes across the country this week, which is a big jump. That’s 12% more sellers than a year ago. It seems more sellers are coming out every week and that will keep inventory pushing upward. Mortgage rates pushed this week close to 7.25%.
It has been almost two months since mortgage rates spiked again, and my initial thought was this would tank housing demand. We had a positive 18-week period with purchase applications before mortgage rates started rising in September. Initially, the data showed more robust performance as mortgage rates approached 6%.
However, there are two big trends that stand out as we launch into 2025 affordability and sellers in the market. Home prices finished 2024 up a few percent nationally and mortgage rates are at their highest level in seven months back over 7% as we head into January. These are unsold newlistings.
Potential home sellers notice weak demand, fewer offers and price reductions, prompting them to back away from the market. If potential sellers avoid the market, this will keep a lid on supply growth. Newlistings are hitting the market Last year was an environment with 5% to 10% more sellers each week than a year prior.
Both the weekly new contracts and all the homes in the contract pending stage are below last year. This housing market is on hold until mortgage rates come down. We knew that mortgage rates over 7% were possible for the year, and here we are. In fact, it seems like the high mortgage rates are holding back newlistings, too.
As inventory builds and, as there are fewer offers from homebuyers , more sellers feel the need to reduce the asking price of the homes for sale. Sellers who dont get an offer may choose to cut their price. There are few offers being made right now, so more sellers are finding the need to reduce their asking price. There are 27.7%
According to the Realtor.com January Monthly Housing Report, January saw a positive shift in seller activity despite recent hikes in mortgage rates, with the number of newly listed homes increasing 37.5% The uptick is likely due to some residual benefit from falls lower mortgage rates, which could fade. month-over-month.
Mortgage rates are a big variable here. In 2024, we saw a notable increase in buyer demand when mortgage rates got close to 6%. However, mortgage rates were climbing to their highest level of the year at this time in 2024. Mortgage rates now are lower than they were a year ago. Unsold newlistings amount to 4.8%
But if buyers and sellers were compelled to transcribe their inaction, it would read like a sociopaths diary entry: We could have watched you grow up, but your grandpa and me werent willing to give up our 2.875% rate to move closer to you. Buyers and sellers are ready to step away from the spreadsheet and get on with living their lives.
Given the unrelenting mortgage costs, generally weak homebuyer demand, and the year’s rising supply of unsold homes, I’ve been expecting home prices to recede a bit in the second half of this year. Florida had an uptick in inventory with a bit of a rebound in newlistings now that the storms are over. They have not.
We already see many signals for what to expect, including last week’s data on inventory , newlistings and price reductions, which I analyze below. Mortgage rates continue to move higher and that’s impacting buyers. Last week there were 52,000 newlistings for single-family homes unsold. of the homes on the market.
The 30-year fixed mortgage has followed suit, recently falling as low as 6.75%, the lowest level since mid-December. Its quite obvious that stubbornly high mortgage rates slowed down early season homebuyers in the first quarter of 2025. So, mortgage rates have been declining for several weeks now. Thats a pretty notable swing.
The New Years week was expected to be slow, so it’s no surprise that newlistings and sales are down. The Christmas and New Year’s holidays fell on Wednesdays this year, which messes up two full weeks in terms of getting home sales done and tracking the numbers. Those will start rebounding in next weeks data.
One of my critical forecasts for 2024 was the growth of newlistings data and active inventory, even with higher mortgage rates. However, the newlistings data has slightly disappointed me. Newlistings data I am pleased that we’ve seen newlistings data grow year over year — it’s a big step forward.
Another tricky part of communicating this news is that home sales aren’t suddenly great. Last year was weak as mortgage rates were hitting 8%. Mortgage rates were super high and inventory was building. That difference can be attributed to mortgage rates staying higher for longer through September.
According to a recent Redfin study, housing prices and mortgage rates are still high, and home sales are at their weakest pace since the pandemic began. Now its pretty clear that sellers arent slashing asking prices and mortgage rates arent plummeting, so mindsets are shifting. Median asking price $407,225 5.2%
Newlistings volume is trying to grow with its biggest week since September. List prices inched up for the week, though sales prices did not advance. Last year at this time, mortgage rates were heading higher to peak in May at 7.5%. These active market listing prices lead the sales prices so theyre very valuable to track.
Weekly housing inventory data Four weeks ago was the best week of inventory growth in 2024, as we hit my model range without higher mortgage rates : I gave it the chef’s kiss. Remember that 2023 had the lowest newlistings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. National data: Weekly inventory change (Oct.
The housing market got some much needed relief in the fall when mortgage rates began to drop, but it was short lived. Despite two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates rose again and remain stubbornly high. Its a symptom of a market thats transitioning away from sellers.
While inventory of unsold homes in the housing market in each of the last two years headed higher during September and October due to mortgage rate spikes, we’re seeing a more normal seasonal pattern now with inventory beginning to decline. We’re also seeing more home sellers withdrawing their listings to try again next year.
The weekly volume of newlistings is now higher than at anytime last year. It’s still April, so there could be as many as eight more weeks of seller growth in the spring housing market. And seller growth is happening pretty much everywhere across the country, with Florida and Texas leading the way. orate further?
The MBAs mortgage applications data has been surprisingly strong. During that time, mortgage rates continually moved lower. Supply growth could also come from more sellers, such as investors or distressed borrowers unloading. However, in most of the country, we have no growth from the seller side. That’s normal.
Mortgage interest rates above 6% continued to impact potential homebuyers’ purchase power, while also contributing to a lock-in effect among would-be home sellers who bought their homes years ago with a mortgage rate of 3% to 4.5%,” the association explained in an announcement.
The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly newlisting data is key. Newlisting data is growing year over year, but it will be the second-lowest newlisting data ever recorded in history. For the fifth time this year, inventory hit my target level with elevated mortgage rates.
Data from Altos Research shows an area with expensive housing, rising inventory and conditions that lean favorable to sellers. LAs housing market has largely stabilized after the turbulence of the post-pandemic years and the rapid rise of mortgage rates beginning in 2022. The current median home price is $1.47 million, $3.9
In recent weeks, home sales also faltered in the face of 7% mortgage rates. Now some of them are sliding below the year prior, which is driven by relentlessly high mortgage rates. This market is at a standstill as long as mortgage rates are above 7%. Home sellers and listing agents know where demand is for homes.
The recent CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Insights report for Q3 shows a continued positive trend of a lack of underwater mortgages in America today. Underwater mortgages where borrowers owe more on their home than what it is worth pose a risk of foreclosure and hinder people from selling their homes, something that was rampant after 2008.
There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. To top it all off, we started 2022 at all-time lows, forcing bidding action everywhere until mortgage rates rose. And we aren’t talking about your grandfather’s mortgage rates rising; we went from 2.5% Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.).
Newlistings hit the highest level since July 2022, increasing 1.9% Redfin cited a number of reasons for this dip in housing sales, including: Mortgage rates hit an eight-month high: As the third quarter brought with it a drop in mortgage rates, 2024 closed with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate edging toward the 7% mark.
Newlistings each week, which were record few last year, are growing now. There are still notably not a lot of sellers. But home sellers are gradually easing back into this housing market. There were 66,000 newlistings this week, of which 14,000 are already in contract. It’s not a ton of sellers.
Sellers can just wait it out, and it looks like the U.S. I think it’s worth examining if sellers will indeed just wait it out now. If mortgage rates jump in late summer, we would see another boost in unsold inventory. Newlistings unchanged You can see the continuation of that theme with the newlistings volume each week.
. “Although it is still too early to tell the extent to which layoffs will impact the regions housing market, Bright MLS weekly market tracker shows signs of a bump in newlisting activity in the Washington D.C. area at the end of February,” Sturtevant noted. ”
Home sellers are returning to the market, but buyers are hesitant, according to a recent Zillow market report. In May, new property listings exceeded sales, allowing buyer competition and price rise to slow—and more price relief is expected. The largest drops were in New Orleans (-5.9%), Austin (-4.1%), and San Antonio (-2.2%).
In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. Mortgage spreads Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%.
There have only been two months in the last decade with fewer home sales: October 2023, when mortgage rates reached a 23-year high, and May 2020, when the pandemic brought the housing market to a halt and home sales to an all-time low. Experts predict sales may increase later this year if mortgage rates gradually fall as projected.
The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of newlistings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.
in February of previous year, indicating that sellers are becoming more accustomed to the present market conditions. The number of newly listed homes grew 4.2% over the previous year, making 2019 February the most active month for sellers since 2021. Key Findings: Newly listed homes increase 4.2% Newlistings +4.2% -13.7%
Newlistings remain low as owners lock in Altos’s data for newlistings accounts for single-family homes that come to market without an immediate or pending contract. Newlistings for single-family homes or condos are key indicators of seller behavior and newlistings ramped up during the week of Feb.
A few more buyers are out there for a number of reasons: High mortgage rates have been accepted by some; the daily average rates reached a seven-month high this week and are not expected to drop much anytime soon. Newlistings are down 2.5% The post New Year New Home? To read the full report, click here.
reaches its peak homebuying season, mortgage rates continue to ease week over week. HousingWire ’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans at 7.45% on Tuesday, below the rate of 7.51% one week ago. Since the softer labor reports happened, mortgage pricing has improved. As the U.S.
Price reductions ticked up this week for the first time since November in the face of rising mortgage rates. We can see the impact of higher mortgage rates slowing homebuyer demand. Now, mortgage rates are 100 basis points higher. We still see more sellers than last year. The pace of sales inched down, too.
This is an excerpt of a HousingWire Research report titled: What Everyone Needs to Know about Mortgage Rate Lock-in, by Altos President Mike Simonsen. housing market saw dramatic changes in affordability as mortgage rates skyrocketed 500 basis points. That’s a swing of 17% fewer sellers in just a matter of days.
metro areas, Miami (45.4%), San Diego (42.4%), and Denver (41.9%) had the biggest annual rise in active listings. of sellers lowering their prices in Decemberup just a little from 12.7% in December 2023the percentage of listings with price reductions was basically unchanged from the previous year. Active listings +22.0% -15.7%
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
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