Housing Wire

JULY 15, 2024

If we look at the housing market right now, sales are down, new listings are down and prices are decelerating. Good inflation data came in last week, the bond market rallied and mortgage rates took a notable dip below 7% for the first time in months. Maybe we’re finally past the peak of mortgage rates ?

Housing Market 497

Housing Market New Listings Marketing Mortgage 497

Housing Wire

APRIL 9, 2023

The housing market welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and new listing data is trending at all-time lows.

Housing Market 540

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 540

Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2024

Since May 29, we’ve witnessed a decline in the 10-year yield, which has been favorable for mortgage rates. 10-year yield and mortgage rates After the intense jobs week data , we ran straight into CPI and PPI inflation week, with a Fed meeting thrown in! Once mortgage rates began rising in 2024, some demand was removed.

Mortgage 508

Mortgage Inventory Marketing New Listings 508

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2024

Mortgage rates kept sliding toward 7% as HousingWire ’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans at 7.25% on Tuesday, below the rate of 7.34% one week ago. During the same period, there were 72,329 new listings, according to Altos Research data.

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Mortgage Marketing Inventory New Listings 475

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2024

In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. Mortgage spreads Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%.

Mortgage 514

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Contracts 514

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 476

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Despite initial concerns that tariffs would push mortgage rates up to 8% and reduce housing demand, this week has brought some encouraging news. The 10-year yield has remained stable at a crucial technical level and even reversed direction, resulting in improved mortgage rates. This is what happened in the last two years.

Mortgage 518

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 518

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Ironically, a strong employment situation in the country drives the bond market to higher rates. After the recent lows with mortgage rates this week, the 30-year fixed rate jumped back up over 6.5%. The purchase market is slower to respond, and the data now is still showing the positive impact of lower rates of recent weeks.

Housing Market 476

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Contracts 476

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2023

housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. This got tested in 2023 with 8% mortgage rates ; not only did that not happen, but the new listing data was very stable, meaning it was forming a bottom.

Housing Market 538

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 538

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2024

This is precisely what the doctor ordered for the housing market. In March of 2022, we only had 240,000 active single-family homes available for sale, leading me to call the housing market savagely unhealthy as we simply had too many people chasing too few homes. Let’s take a half-time look at the inventory levels in America today.

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Housing Market Mortgage Inventory Marketing 476

Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2024

reaches its peak homebuying season, mortgage rates continue to ease week over week. HousingWire ’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans at 7.45% on Tuesday, below the rate of 7.51% one week ago. Since the softer labor reports happened, mortgage pricing has improved. As the U.S.

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Mortgage New Listings Inventory Sellers 532

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. Mortgage rates went from a low of 2.5%

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Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 544

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Mortgage rates started the week off at 6.61% and ended at 6.66%, so a calm week on the rate front.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

JANUARY 1, 2024

The 2023 housing market faced one of the same roadblocks we saw in 2022: mortgage rates were too high for home sales growth. Every Saturday I publish a weekly housing market tracker with forward-looking data and insights so you can adjust quickly to market conditions. If the 10-year yield gets above 4.25%, the U.S.

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Housing Market Marketing New Listings Construction 531

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? While the Fed can be old and slow, the bond market, thankfully, is doing a lot of the heavy lifting and has already priced in a lot of Fed easing policy.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 533

Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls, and the price-cut percentage grows.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 521

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

What will the housing market look like in 2025? We already see many signals for what to expect, including last week’s data on inventory , new listings and price reductions, which I analyze below. For a more comprehensive look, read our 2025 Housing Market Forecast covering home prices, home sales volumes and more.

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Housing Market New Listings Marketing Inventory 448

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week, but the 10-year yield rose even though inflation data was tamer than expected, and we had a weaker retail sales report number.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 539

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 536

Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2024

Mortgage rates moved massively lower last week without any Federal Reserve rate cuts, primarily because the labor market is getting softer. Can mortgage rates go even lower? As we can see below, when the market priced economic weakness earlier in 2024, it took the 10-year yield down toward 3.80% but didn’t break that level.

Mortgage 518

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 518

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. This isn’t saying too much since 2023 had the lowest recorded level of new listings ever, but it’s still a plus in my book. The mortgage spread data got worse last week. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 514

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 514

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 501

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. Also, the volume of active listings was higher in 2022 this week, even though we were working from a lower level.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 525

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 535

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 535

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 525

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 525

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2024

Given last week’s surprising jobs report, how much longer will we have to deal with higher mortgage rates ? It’s essential to track the labor data along with inflation because the key to getting lower mortgage rates for longer lies with the labor data more than inflation. Still, the labor market hasn’t broken yet.

Mortgage 508

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 508

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. Here is a quick rundown of the last week: Purchase application data was down 6% weekly.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 513

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

It was a wild ride for the housing market last week! The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Mortgage rates rose last week as we started the week at 6.55% but ended at 6.90%.

Housing Market 511

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 511

Housing Wire

JUNE 1, 2024

Mortgage rates have been a bit more volatile recently due to hawkish Federal Reserve statements and inflation data, which has impacted some of the recent movement in the 10-year yield. So, what does this all mean for the housing market and the future of mortgage rates? But now we have the big jobs week coming up!

Mortgage 520

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 520

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 541

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541

Housing Wire

JANUARY 8, 2024

These are very clear trends as we start the new year. 2023 started with recovery, but slowed down in Q3 as mortgage rates hit 8%. Could the housing market change and slow again in 2024? The data does not show any slowing on any of the active market metrics. of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.

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Real Estate Marketing Inventory New Listings 508

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

Housing Market 511

Housing Market Inventory Marketing New Listings 511

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

An often misguided premise I see on social media is that lower mortgage rates are doing nothing for housing demand. Purchase application data First, purchase apps is the fastest way to look for positive or negative data at higher or lower mortgage rates. That’s ok — very few people are looking at the data without an agenda.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 521

Housing Wire

JULY 29, 2024

Any sales growth momentum in the real estate market we might have had early in the year is gone. New home sales contracts are coming in pretty consistently fewer than last year — 4.9% Our Immediate sales measure of homes that get listed, take offers and go into contract in a few days is also notably lower than last year.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 456

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. However, as mortgage rates have fallen recently , I haven’t been able to hit my targets, which isn’t a surprise.

Inventory 538

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 538