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Housing inventory fell last week. Have sellers called it quits?

Housing Wire

Since mid-2022 when mortgage rates headed higher , two facts have been apparent: new listings data has been trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history and inventory has been able to grow from record low levels thanks to mortgage rates staying elevated. As you can see, we have made progress in inventory growth year after year.

Inventory 494
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Altos: Housing inventory could grow 40% this year

Housing Wire

Last fall when people were still expecting mortgage rates to be falling this year, it was common to assume rates would be in the low 6s or 5s this year and people asked me if lower rates would bring a flood of inventory. The only way inventory would grow in 2024 is if mortgage rates climbed. But the evidence is the opposite.

Inventory 513
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Inventory is 19% higher than a year ago: Altos

Housing Wire

At HousingWire , we have a debate about whether home sellers will freeze up again this year as mortgage rates stay stubbornly high. We’ve had seller growth for 18 weeks in a row. More sellers means more sales. And as a result, as inventory builds , the sales growth trend shows signs of slowing. So that rule holds.

Inventory 490
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More home sellers are withdrawing listings

Housing Wire

While inventory of unsold homes in the housing market in each of the last two years headed higher during September and October due to mortgage rate spikes, we’re seeing a more normal seasonal pattern now with inventory beginning to decline. We’re also seeing more home sellers withdrawing their listings to try again next year.

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Unsold inventory is rising across the country

Housing Wire

It’s the end of May and unsold inventory on the market is increasing across the U.S. Every state in the country has more homes on the market now than a year ago and, in many places, new construction is being completed and added to inventory, so it’s not just resale inventory that’s growing. Higher rates create more inventory.

Inventory 515
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Home sellers are returning to the market

Housing Wire

It’s still April, so there could be as many as eight more weeks of seller growth in the spring housing market. And seller growth is happening pretty much everywhere across the country, with Florida and Texas leading the way. The bearish take is that there are many more sellers than buyers and inventory is rising.

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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 510