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Mortgage rates moved massively lower last week without any Federal Reserve rate cuts, primarily because the labor market is getting softer. Can mortgage rates go even lower? As we can see below, when the market priced economic weakness earlier in 2024, it took the 10-year yield down toward 3.80% but didn’t break that level. So, after a softer jobs report, the question is: Can this level break and head back down to the key line in the sand I call the Gandalf line at 3.37%?
Need help highlighting value in a buyer-broker presentation? Jimmy Burgess talks with Andrew Undem, who shares his "8 pillars of value" strategy for showcasing client benefits.
The Federal Reserve won’t pivot on rates until the labor market breaks and it will keep financial conditions as tight as possible until that happens — this has been my theme since 2022. Friday’s jobs report had one number which got people talking about a possible recession: the 4.3% unemployment rate. Now, historically speaking, that is a low unemployment rate, but it has moved up from the recent lows of 3.5%.
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