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One reason that home prices have stayed elevated is that inventory nationally is still restricted. But if current trends continue, the inventory shortage will be effectively gone by next spring. In fact, while home prices are higher than a year ago, inventory has increased at the rate price appreciation has decreased.
Could the loss of jobs in the government sector and the withdrawal of funding from the economy significantly increase the unemployment rate and a surge in jobless claims? However, if we focus on government workers and government contractors, it’s likely that the unemployment rate will rise in 2025. 26 in Dallas.
As mortgage rates rose, homebuyer demand slowed and inventory grew. Were only two months into the new government policies. Is it pent up shadow inventory for people whove delayed moving for three years? This inventory increase is from the new listings. Today, home sales still remain super slow. Is it economic vibes?
is being closely watched amid widespread layoffs of federal government workers. Sweeping cuts by Elon Musks DOGE agency have sent many government employees packing, while other staff need to find housing in the area to comply with return-to-work mandates. Will inventory levels skyrocket as federal workers leave? Lets dive in.
Weekly pending sales The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Weekly pending contracts for the past week over the past several years: 2025: 323,456 2024: 334,017 2023: 314,696 We have a better day on purchase applications but pending home sales, nothing of note.
Inventory of unsold homes on the market ticked down fractionally this week. Its not uncommon for January to have a little up and down in the inventory numbers. If inventory were jumping each week, that would be notable, but its not. At this time, of year theres new inventory and new buyers are shopping. is basically zero.
Weekly housing inventory continues upward Is inventory in the D.C This week’s inventory data gives us a vantage point into this weeks market dynamics. Inventory for single-family homes in the D.C ’s inventory level compared to 2024. Data and common sense show that federal job cuts are stressing D.C’s
“Buyers remained active in the purchase market , helped by gradually improving inventory conditions and a more positive outlook on the economy and job market. Meanwhile, government loan activity increased across all loan types, excluding U.S. The refinance share of all mortgage activity sank by 10 basis points (bps) to 46.7%.
Application activity was slightly weaker, primarily because of a 7% decline in refinancing across both conventional and government loans, said Joel Kan, MBAs vice president and deputy chief economist. Purchase activity decreased slightly, but applications for FHA purchase loans were a bright spot, increasing by 2%. from 16.5% the week prior.
In addition to lower rates, purchase activity continues to be supported by sustained housing demand and inventory that continues to grow gradually in many markets,” Kan added. Government loan activity saw a slight jump. MBA’s report also examined the average contract interest rates for several loan types.
Auction.com , the nation’s largest online platform for distressed real estate sales, recently reported that demand for homes sold at auction began to decline late in the second quarter of 2024 even as the available supply of foreclosed homes also contracted.
No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers. “I According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.
Last weeks level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3% increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2%, said Joel Kan , MBAs vice president and deputy chief economist. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 6.04% from 5.89%.
Tight housing inventory, obstacles to a faster rate of new construction, and rapidly rising home prices continue to hold back purchase activity,” Kan said. “The government purchase index declined to its lowest level in over a year and has now decreased year over year for five straight weeks.
However, the government refinance index decreased for the first time in a month, driven by a slowdown in VA refinance activity,” Kan said. Furthermore, housing inventory shortages have pushed national home prices considerably higher on an annual basis,” Kan said. Nevertheless, refis remained 80% higher than the same time a year ago.
Refinance activity dropped to its slowest pace since September 2020 – down a full 5% – with declines in both conventional and government applications, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. Inadequate housing inventory continues to put upward pressure on home prices,” Kan said.
MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting Joel Kan called last week’s mortgage activity “a mixed bag,” between rates , loan sizes, and government purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase applications declined, but average loan sizes increased for each loan type.
Year-over-year, contract signings increased by 16.4%. “The latest monthly decline is largely due to the shortage of inventory and fast-rising home prices,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. pending home sales slid for the third consecutive month in November, dropping 2.6% Presented by: WFG.
For now, though, the low inventory means housing starts have legs to move higher. Existing home inventory is also at all-time lows. Existing home inventory is also at all-time lows. Unsold inventory sits at an all-time-low 2.5-month Keep this rule of thumb in mind for the future, below 4.3 Existing Home Supply.
. “The one-week reversal in the recent upswing in rates drove an increase in both conventional and government refinance activity, as borrowers continue to lock in these historically low rates,” Kan said. ” The FHA share of total mortgage applications decreased to 9.1% the week prior. from 12.4% the week prior.
The housing market in early 2021 continues to be constrained by low inventory and higher prices. Conventional and government applications to buy a home declined last week, but purchase activity overall is still strong – up 15% from last year,” Kand said.
“Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, along with still-low inventory, means that new pending sales were down more than 20% from a year ago, and were lower even compared to 2019 levels.” An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Regionally, the Midwest (78.4), South (99.6), and West (62.2)
With spring approaching – signaling the start of a busy buying season – the purchase market sported its strongest showing in four weeks, with gains in both conventional and government applications, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. from 12.3% the week prior.
“Despite the jump in rates, refinances also increased for the second consecutive week, pushed higher by a 4% bump in conventional refinance applications,” Kan said, “Government purchase applications drove most of last week’s increase, which also contributed to a slightly lower overall average purchase loan size.”. the previous week.
An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Pending home sales, like new home sales, are based on contract signings. Yun also expressed concern about a possible government shutdown, which could worsen the conditions in the housing market. “It Existing home sales also fell in August, down 15.3%
The index plunged from record highs seen in late 2019 after the COVID-19 pandemic caused the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression. while the Jumbo MCAI measuring high-balance loans rose 2.2%, and the Conventional MCAI that measures loans not backed by the government rose 4.8%.
“Purchase activities continued to show impressive year-over-year gains, with both the conventional and government segments of the market posting another week of growth,” Kan said. Housing demand remains strong, and despite extremely tight inventory and rising prices, home sales are running at their strongest pace in over a decade.”.
3, driven by a surge in government refinancings according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey published on Wednesday. The trade group estimates the average contract 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.30%, one basis point down from the previous week.
Lower rates led to an increase in refinance applications, with government loan applications jumping 10 percent to the highest level since May 2021.” ” Kan also noted that purchase applications for both conventional and government loans increased on the week that ended Aug. of total applications. the week prior.
The trade group estimates that the average contract 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans ($548,250 or less) remained unchanged at 3.30%. decline in applications for government loans. Would-be homebuyers are finding it hard to compete with FHA and VA loans in a purchase market defined by low inventory.
The point of the editorial seemed to be to scaremonger over government programs to help home buyers and student loan borrowers. New contracts dipped as affordability is out of reach for so many. Inventory is very low and just inching up now week over week late in the summer. That’s blatantly wrong. housing market now.
Only government refinances saw a slight increase last week,” Kan said. The purchase market has suffered from persistently low housing inventory and the jump in mortgage rates over the past two months. In May, the inventory of homes for sale rose 8%, marking the first rebound since June 2019. year over year. .
Conventional loan refinances, which tend to have larger balances than government loans and hence are more responsive for a given change in mortgage rates, fell to a greater extent over the week.” The largest constraint for many prospective homebuyers over the past year had been the lack of inventory. For the week ending Oct.
“Both conventional and government loan applications increased, and the average loan size for a purchase loan was at $407,200, continuing its ongoing 2021 run of being mostly above $400,000,” Kan said. year-over-year, and purchase apps decreased 6% in the same period, a symptom of even lower levels of inventory.
Existing home sales have been largely in line with the ESR Group’s recent forecast of further gradual declines throughout the year, which were expected due to affordability constraints and tight existing home sales inventory of existing homes for sale. government on its debt obligations.
The seasonally adjusted purchase index dropped 2% compared to the previous week and was 16% lower than it was a year ago, largely due to soaring prices and paltry inventory. Even with a slight increase, purchase activity hit its highest level since early July, as applications for conventional and government loans increased.”
The MBA’s survey showed the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate conforming loans (balances of $766,550 or less) decreased to 6.55% during the week ending Aug. HousingWire ’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that the average 30-year conforming loan rate was 6.77% on Wednesday, down from 7.01% a week earlier.
Mortgage credit availability dropped in May, a consequence of a tougher mortgage landscape that has resulted in lender consolidation as well as high rates and limited inventory that has stretched consumer budgets. The monthly Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell by 3.1% last month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. ” Contract signings on new homes increased 13.1% ” Contract signings on new homes increased 13.1% year over year. .
Borrowers’ demand increased for conventional and government loans, up 4.50% and 1.20% from one week earlier, respectively. Both conventional and government home purchase applications increased last week. Altos Research data shows that inventory rose from 405,468 to 414,010 from April 14 to 21. Mortgage apps also rose 4.7%
trillion the following year, according to the government-sponsored enterprise. In addition, the unsold existing homes inventory has slipped for three consecutive months, ending October at 1.22 The latest forecast also projects that total mortgage origination activity is slightly increased at $2.34 trillion in 2022. year over year.
“Purchase applications increased but were still 27 percent lower than a year ago, as elevated mortgage rates and tight housing inventory continue to weigh on home-buying activity,” Kan added. Government refinance applications dropped more than 10% last week. Also noteworthy, a 7.9% Lastly, the U.S. a week prior.
“In a sign that borrowers are increasingly more sensitive to higher rates, large declines in government purchase applications and refinance applications pulled overall activity lower,” Kan said. All other mortgage rates in the survey posted a decline. The FHA share of total mortgage applications increased to 9.4% the week prior.
trillion in 2023, according to the government-sponsored enterprise. annualized in the third quarter of 2022 due to strong net export and inventory investment activity, before contracting 0.7% contraction in real GDP in 2023. The latest forecast also projects total mortgage origination activity at $1.6
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