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The three years in the post-pandemic housing market have been marked by very few sellers 60,000 newlistings in a given week vs. 80,000 in years’ past. Inventory continues to contract There are now 651,000 single-family homes unsold on the market across the U.S. These are unsold newlistings.
Newcontracts for home purchases are coming in very low this month. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. When will that be? I have no idea.
The median price of the homes that went into contract this week — these are the new purchase offers with contracts pending — is now 6% greater than last year. Florida had an uptick in inventory with a bit of a rebound in newlistings now that the storms are over. Home prices ticked up this week.
Newlistings ticked up by 21% in February compared to last year, according to Zillow ’s February report. Newlistings rose 20% from January, and each of the 50 largest U.S. metros experienced an increase in newlistings. Texas and Florida saw the biggest jump in newlistings, year over year.
The New Years week was expected to be slow, so it’s no surprise that newlistings and sales are down. The Christmas and New Year’s holidays fell on Wednesdays this year, which messes up two full weeks in terms of getting home sales done and tracking the numbers. Those will start rebounding in next weeks data.
There were 45,000 newlistings for single-family homes across the country this week, which is a big jump. Newlistings jump The supply story in real estate must take into account the new sellers each week. I do not expect a flood of new sellers, but we do see growth.
Newlistings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. The moves haven’t been significant and our weekly pending contracts data picked up this week. But, we need to see more growth in newlistings data just to grow from 2023 levels.
This week, we count 14% more homes in the contract pending stage now than a year ago. Another tricky part of communicating this news is that home sales aren’t suddenly great. Newlistings rise There were just under 61,000 newlistings unsold this week. For whatever reason, the trend seems to be holding now.
Newlistings on trend Nationally, there were just 31,000 newlistings for single-family homes from the last week which included Thanksgiving weekend. Hard to say, but like the slight growth in newlistings, seeing a slight growth in home sales is an optimistic view of the housing market. is $384,900 now.
Newlistings Slightly fewer newlistings hit the market this week — 69,000 single-family homes that are newly listed, plus another 20,000 listed that are already under contract. That’s actually 3% fewer newlistings than last week. Altos Research is measuring fewer days under contract.
If we look at the housing market right now, sales are down, newlistings are down and prices are decelerating. Home prices and newlistings dipped too. On the pricing side, last week had the first negative print on year-over-year price for newlistings. Is it darkest before the dawn?
At least, that’s what the data seems to suggest as inventory grows and newlistings decline at a less aggressive rate than last year. Newlistings decline isn’t as steep as a year ago There were only 53,000 newlistings (single-family homes) unsold this week, plus 10,000 more newlistings that are already in contract.
You also know that newlistings are up over last year, too. Newlistings volume is up, too. There were 58,000 newlistings this week, with 10,000 of those homes already under contract as immediate sales. We had 52,000 new pending sales this week. Short on time?
This growth is a positive housing story in 2024, something I talked about on Yahoo Finance this morning. One difference between 2023 and 2024 is that this year the pending contract data shows small but steady year-over-year sales growth. I love that newlistings data is growing yearly, but it’s been too light for me.
Newlistings at the peak for the year There are two reasons that inventory is probably around the peak for the year. We can see that the newlistings rate continues to be restricted. For every two homes going into contract each week, there’s a third withdrawn for lack of an offer.
The number of homes under contract across the country has risen for the last few weeks. Pending home sales climb There are 362,000 single-family homes under contract. We’re showing 6% more homes in contract now than last year. Homes stay under contract for 30 to 40 days. The rate of home sales is picking up!
Newlistings ticked down Most of the total inventory fluctuations have been demand-driven this year. When we look at the newlistings pace, there’s no sign of a plethora of sellers are reaching the market. When we look at the newlistings pace, there’s no sign of a plethora of sellers are reaching the market.
More newlistings could help boost sales We saw 58,000 newlistings added to the housing inventory this week, with 9,000 of those already under contract. That’s more new sellers this year than the same week a year ago, signaling a tiny improvement in our supply-starved housing market. What does that mean?
Newlistings and home sales remain low this week while available inventory of unsold homes is finally falling across the country after rising with mortgage rates late into November. Home prices will also be up and we have more homes under contract than we did at the end of 2022. We want newlistings volume to show growth.
There were only 57,000 newlistings of single-family homes unsold again this week. Housing supply shows no signs of easing There were 325,000 single-family homes in the contract-pending stage, or 6% fewer home sales than last year. Meanwhile, we saw 55,000 newcontracts for single-family homes this week.
Additionally, there are 62,000 newlistings this week, with 9,000 of those already under contract. Transaction volume no longer decreasing YoY Pending contracts saw fewer sales compared to last year until October. If rates fall, inventory will also come down again.
Pending home sales continue to climb There are 362,000 single-family homes under contract. This is measuring the total count of homes that are under contract now. We’re showing 6% more homes under contract now than last year. Homes stay under contract for 30 to 40 days. It was just under a 1% increase this week.
Additionally, last week added only 55,000 newlistings for single-family homes, down 8.5% With the Easter holiday last week, data for housing inventory , newlistings and the pace of newcontracts started all took a breather from their growth pace,” Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research , wrote on Monday.
Now that this technical level has been broken, 2024 is going to be a lot more interesting, something I discussed in an interview with Yahoo Finance. Some will say that bonds rallied ahead of the pending war news on Friday, but we will get a better answer Sunday night with bond market trading.
This probably reflects seller discouragement in a low-demand market, pulling their listings to wait until next year. It also reflects that most homeowners in the country have cheap financing , so they can afford not to sell in unfavorable environments. Or do they simply not discount and just withdraw the listing to try again later?
18-Aug 25): Inventory rose from 497,361 to 503,924 The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497 The yearly inventory peak for 2024 is this week at 704,744 For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,215,873 Newlistings data Newlisting data is experiencing its traditional seasonal decline.
Newlisting numbers are low There were just 59,000 newlistings unsold this week for single-family homes. There were another 10,000 newlistings that immediately sold. Pending home sales stay the same There were 64,000 newcontracts pending this week for single-family homes.
Some of this week’s inventory decline was helped by western Florida, which had a lot of withdrawn listings and very few newlistings due to the two hurricanes. Newlistings tick up Newlistings ticked up to 63,000 plus 10,000 more immediate sales. So that’s compressing now each week. That’s down 1.5%
There are only 358,000 single family homes in contract pending now. We saw 64,000 newly pending contracts last week for single family home sales which is 7% fewer than last year. This week is a holiday week so new sales will tick down win next week’s data. So we have 11% fewer total contracts but only 7% fewer newcontracts.
While I didn’t get my minimum target of 80,000 newlistings during the peak seasonal weeks this year, it was good to see growth. Weekly inventory change (July 26-Aug. 2): Inventory grew from 677,246 to 683,728 The same week last year (July 27-Aug. The seasonal decline we see now is very normal.
However, I missed my 2024 forecast of at least 80,000 newlistings per week this year during the seasonal peak months by roughly 5,000. However, I missed my 2024 forecast of at least 80,000 newlistings per week this year during the seasonal peak months by roughly 5,000. Weekly inventory change (Sept.
Newlistings To watch whether supply and demand might get out of balance with higher mortgage rates, keep an eye on the newlistings volume this spring, not just the total inventory. There were 59,000 newlistings unsold this week. The median price of the newly listed cohort this week is $420,000.
25 -Sept 1): Inventory rose from 503,924 to 509,562 The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497 The yearly inventory peak for 2024 was last week at 704,744 For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,204,810 Newlistings data Newlisting data is experiencing its traditional seasonal decline.
Newlistings come at slow rate On the newlistings side, we’ve covered the slow rate of sellers now for two full years. This week was no different with 67,000 newlistings of single-family homes. Home sales down a teeny bit There are 366,000 single-family homes under contract.
“I never know how my day is going to go, because when a newlisting comes on the market in Knoxville, the race is on. You set your appointments the night before, and when you get there that morning, they might already be under contract.” Generally, they go under contract in a day or two.”
The Case-Shiller index measures repeat sales data and reflects a three-month moving average, meaning that it tracks homes that went into contract in July, August and September. Simultaneously, newlisting volume is up at the end of November, which might cool home prices down.
Homes typically go under contract a month or two before the closing, which means the October data largely reflects purchase decisions made in August and September. At the same time, existing inventory has likely already bottomed out and newlistings are keeping steady despite normal seasonal declines.
There is nothing there right now that really scares us; buyers just have the opportunity to be a bit more sensible with their offers and don’t have to worry about waiving inspections or financing contingencies, which is a good thing.” in early March to 25, 20 and 11 in late June.
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The chart (below) puts it in sharp focus: Except for the pandemic year of 2020 when there were 2559 newlistings that April, last month was the slowest April since at least 2008 when easy access to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data became available. Where are all the sellers? You can’t buy what’s not for sale!
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fewer newlistings, the rate of sales rose 1.7% Two data points stood out from the latest report by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service: The aforementioned newlistings for all homes in the county – 2684 – is at a low not seen for an August since records were shared with brokers (like me) dating back to the mid-1990s.
“Cold water” comes from the central bank’s intent to maintain high financing costs for banks that borrow from other financial institutions. Despite a challenging financing environment, the Seattle/King County housing market is moving forward. More on this in a moment.) However, we are missing the typical boost of sellers.
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