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Originations forecast through 2026 ‘dampened’ by inflation, GDP and labor market growth

Housing Wire

Persistent economic trends that include inflation, a strong labor market and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will continue to “dampen” mortgage origination activity through at least the end of 2026, according to the newest U.S. mortgage originations outlook from financial services forecasting and advisory company iEmergent.

Marketing 448
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What rising inventory means for the 2025 housing market

Housing Wire

As the year draws to a close, available unsold inventory of homes on the market is nearly 27% greater than a year ago. Ten states have more inventory unsold than in 2019, which was the last sort of normal year before the pandemic. Inventory is still very tight in places like Chicago and New England, but it is rising in these markets.

Inventory 369
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Pending Home Sales Climb to Highest Level Since March

Appraisal Buzz

“Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR. Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”

Contracts 418
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Home Price Growth to Decelerate Over the Next 24 Months

Appraisal Buzz

for 2026, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI). The largest group, which represents roughly 80% of respondents, expects home price growth to decelerate, citing continued high mortgage rates, rising for-sale housing inventory, and slower wage growth as the main drivers. in 2025 and 3.6% for 2024, 3.1%

Inventory 394
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What Fed rate cuts in 2024 will mean for homebuyers

Housing Wire

For 2026, Fed officials projected rates to fall below 3% by the end of 2026 through three more quarter percentage point reductions. While mortgage rates are expected to decrease, high home prices combined with low inventory still pose a challenge for potential homebuyers. “We in 2025, indicating four more 25 bps cuts.

Inventory 488
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The average retail mortgage lender lost $645 per loan in Q1 2024 — but that’s actually a good thing

Housing Wire

Housing inventory has also climbed from the low poitns of last year , although it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. trillion in 2026. in 2026, according to Fratantoni’s forecast. Fratantoni expects a major rebound for the mortgage market over the next two years. Mortgage rates should fall to 5.9% in 2025 and 5.7%

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How HousingWire’s 2025 market forecast compares to others

Housing Wire

With this assumption — in addition to ongoing affordability issues and low inventory — HousingWire’s analysts foresee home-price appreciation of 3.5%, less than the 5% growth seen in typical years. This growth is in line with upward trends in inventory that began in 2022, when available homes for sale tanked to roughly 250,000.

Marketing 360