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2025 labor market holds key for mortgage rates

Housing Wire

This gives us a glimpse of what may happen over the next 10 months for mortgage rates, especially since, since Jan. However, there is a limit to the downside on mortgage rates until the labor market breaks, or we get more than 1% rate cuts from the Fed. Let’s put a framework for 2025 in play.

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All those 2025 mortgage rates forecasts are now wrong

Housing Wire

Its late December so all the 2025 mortgage rate forecasts have been published. Most housing market analysts expect mortgage rates to spend the year with a 6 handle. The most optimistic predictions assume 2025 will see mostly low 6s for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Unfortunately, all of them are already wrong.

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Better mortgage spreads are capping rates in 2025

Housing Wire

Another jobs week has come to an end, and amid the chaotic headlines about job numbers, tariffs , and the leadership of the Treasury , mortgage rates remained calm. Better mortgage spreads are limiting how high rates can rise in 2025. Today, I want to explain why this topic is essential as we look ahead to the rest of 2025.

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The two big housing market trends to watch in 2025

Housing Wire

However, there are two big trends that stand out as we launch into 2025 affordability and sellers in the market. Home prices finished 2024 up a few percent nationally and mortgage rates are at their highest level in seven months back over 7% as we head into January. In 2025, housing affordability in the U.S.

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What Percentage of Commercial Mortgage Balances Will Mature in 2025?

Appraisal Buzz

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), approximately 20% ($957 billion) of $4.8 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2025, a 3% increase from the $929 billion that matured in 2024. The post What Percentage of Commercial Mortgage Balances Will Mature in 2025?

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2025 could be the last year of inventory shortage

Housing Wire

Home prices in 2025 are a couple percentage points above where they were last year at this time. Mortgage rates are a big variable here. In 2024, we saw a notable increase in buyer demand when mortgage rates got close to 6%. However, mortgage rates were climbing to their highest level of the year at this time in 2024.

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The homebuilders’ 2025 supply and demand problem

Housing Wire

When mortgage rates decline, sales improve, but it becomes more challenging for builders and buyers when rates rise. This situation poses a risk to construction labor in 2025. As mortgage rates keep increasing along with supply, this doesnt bode well for housing starts growing meaningfully.