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Home prices in 2025 are a couple percentage points above where they were last year at this time. One reason that home prices have stayed elevated is that inventory nationally is still restricted. But if current trends continue, the inventory shortage will be effectively gone by next spring. is more like 5% per year.
However, there are two big trends that stand out as we launch into 2025 affordability and sellers in the market. In 2025, housing affordability in the U.S. That growth is in jeopardy if we stay at the high end of the mortgage rate range into the first quarter 2025. The elephant in the room is affordability.
As the year draws to a close, available unsold inventory of homes on the market is nearly 27% greater than a year ago. Ten states have more inventory unsold than in 2019, which was the last sort of normal year before the pandemic. Inventory is still very tight in places like Chicago and New England, but it is rising in these markets.
Better mortgage spreads are limiting how high rates can rise in 2025. Today, I want to explain why this topic is essential as we look ahead to the rest of 2025. However, spreads have improved in 2024 and 2025, which is helping to limit how high mortgage rates can go this year. In 2023, spreads reached as high as 3.10%.
Rising housing inventory levels in 2024 may not be the positive sign of market health that they appear to be. High inventory levels contribute to another problem as active listings are remaining unsold for longer periods. Redfin refers to these listings as “stale inventory.” ” According to the report, 54.5%
What will the housing market look like in 2025? We already see many signals for what to expect, including last week’s data on inventory , new listings and price reductions, which I analyze below. For a more comprehensive look, read our 2025 Housing Market Forecast covering home prices, home sales volumes and more.
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index (PHSI) report is a forward-looking source that predicts home sales based on contract signings. “Despite higher mortgage rates in November and persistent affordability challengers, buyers took advantage of more inventory as pending home sales reached the highest level in nearly two years.
As we look into 2025, the question everyone is asking is: Do we have a new era starting? We know inventory has been climbing all year. The northern cities have tight inventory and rising prices, some of the Sunbelt cities have the most inventory in many years, and some markets even have falling prices, too.
Recently, weve shared that the inventory of unsold homes is growing. There are already plenty of markets nationwide where the inventory of unsold homes has built up over the past few years and home prices have ticked down. Lets take a look at the data for the third week of January 2025. this week is $421,000. It is negative.
Redfin cited a number of reasons for this increase in the nations housing inventory, including: The mortgage rate lock-in effect is fading: A number of homeowners who scored low mortgage rates during the pandemic have been staying put because moving would mean taking on a higher rate. of homes that went under contract last month.
In 2025, mortgage rates have ranged between 7.26%-6.64%. Weekly pending sales The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. With that in mind, read my labor model for 2025 after the jobs report on how you get there! Weekly inventory change (Feb.
Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country every week all the active inventory and pending sales as they happen as well as prices and supply and demand metrics Lets look at this weeks data. Inventory fell There are 635,000 single-family homes unsold on the market now. In 2018, mortgage rates and inventory rose all year.
10-year yield and mortgage rates In my 2025 forecast, I anticipate the following ranges: Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25% The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70% So far in 2025, we have consistently been near the upper end of the year’s forecast.
This is the trend that will be the theme for 2025. It seems more sellers are coming out every week and that will keep inventory pushing upward. First thing to note is that California has very restricted inventory. Total inventory dipped because of withdrawals, not always because of purchase demand. That means 4.2
increase in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a measure of future home sales based on contract signings, to 75.8, The amount of contract activity in 2001 is represented by an index of 100. Year-over-year, contract signings grew in the Northeast and West and were unchanged in the Midwest and South. September saw a 7.4%
Its quite obvious that stubbornly high mortgage rates slowed down early season homebuyers in the first quarter of 2025. Last week at HousingWires Housing Economic Summit in Dallas, I shared the data on why I expect that the same 6% threshold will be what were facing in 2025. Inventory grew faster last year.
Weekly pending sales The Altos Research weekly pending contract data provides insights into real-time demand. Even today, the pending contract data remains resilient despite higher home prices and mortgage rates than last year. Weekly inventory change (Nov. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
New contracts for home purchases are coming in very low this month. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. When will that be? I have no idea.
Despite this, we had positive data on existing home sales , purchase applications, and our weekly pending contract figures. However, we need lower mortgage rates to grow sales in a bigger fashion in 2025. Weekly housing inventory data As we enter the year’s final weeks, we usually see a drop in housing inventory.
We track inventory and home sales very closely, so the biggest surprise this year has been the resiliency of home prices. With just a few local market exceptions, home prices nationally will finish the year up again and will go into 2025 with some upward momentum. Our model had expected inventory to climb just a bit this week.
The difference is mortgage rates: even with inventory growing at a healthy clip this year, mortgage rates just heading down toward 6% for a brief period of time resulted in higher prices in a seasonally soft period. This is something to think about for 2025. However, that didn’t happen. million in October.
Inventory of unsold homes on the market ticked down fractionally this week. Its not uncommon for January to have a little up and down in the inventory numbers. If inventory were jumping each week, that would be notable, but its not. Lets take a look at the data for the final week of January 2025. is basically zero.
The unsold inventory of homes on the market across the country is 28% greater than last year at this time. Withdrawals keep a lid on inventory growth. That suggests a shadow inventory of homes that want to be sold but the market isnt there for it. Are there any signs of sales growing for 2025? Something to watch.
More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6% and 7%. million units in total housing inventory, which was 2.9% At the current sales pace, unsold inventory is at a 3.8-month
This week, we count 14% more homes in the contract pending stage now than a year ago. Inventory is past peak for the year, so the momentum looks to keep the trends in a positive direction for now. Inventory drops again There are 736,000 single-family homes unsold on the market in the U.S. Higher rates create more inventory.
As such, housing inventory isn’t shrinking. This indicates slow market stabilization and continued inventory growth throughout 2025. Fewer weekly sellers implies that well have a cap on inventory growth this year, even though demand is weak. Any inventory growth now is because demand is really weak.
As low inventory levels, elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices keep the housing industry stagnant, short-term real estate investors — aka fix-and-flippers — faced market turmoil during the third quarter of 2024. An index score above 50 indicates market expansion, while a score below 50 indicates contraction. ”
By the end of the year, that percentage is predicted to drop to 75%, according to the 2025 Realtor.com Housing Forecast. Buyers & Sellers Thaw Alongside Winter Weather Additionally, for the fifteenth consecutive month, annual inventory increased, with 24.6% Which Regions Are Closest to Closing the Inventory Gap? 10.7% -0.7%
This could represent a glimmer of hope for mortgage lenders heading into 2025. In addition to lower rates, purchase activity continues to be supported by sustained housing demand and inventory that continues to grow gradually in many markets,” Kan added. The MBA adjusted last week’s data for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The index includes sales of properties that went under contract in October, so it doesn’t quite capture what’s currently happening in the housing market. “It is expected that we will see slower price growth in early 2025 as inventory increases and affordability continues to be a constraint.” ”
real estate market were for inventory growth, sales growth and home-price growth across the U.S. Of my initial expectations this year — rising inventory, rising sales rates, rising prices — only rising inventory remains clear at this moment as we finish Q1 with rising interest rates. As we started 2024, the signals in the U.S.
Unsold inventory of homes for sale has been on the rise all year. It hasn’t turned the corner yet — inventory rose across the country this week — but at less than 1% rate. There are some signs that inventory growth is slowing with newly lower mortgage rates and the end of the summer. Texas inventory grew by 1.5%
Unsold inventory of homes on the market has been climbing in the U.S. In general, inventory rises with rates because more expensive money slows demand. When demand slows, inventory grows. Inventory is climbing but it’s still pretty restricted. And importantly, inventory isn’t growing everywhere equally.
24, 2025, include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday. New and existing home sales ended 2024 on a strong note, and if mortgage rates continue to stabilize and for-sale inventory loosens, we expect a gradual pick up in purchase activity in the coming months. This weeks results for the week ending Jan. the previous week.
home listing that went under contract stayed on the market for 54 days, which is the longest period since March 2020 and one week longer than it was at this time last year. Home Sales Slow as Prices and Inventory Rise Due to the high cost of purchasing a homemortgage rates are close to 7%, and housing prices are rising 4.8%
Increasing for-sale inventory in some markets has provided prospective buyers more options as we approach the spring homebuying season. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances decreased to 7.00% from 7.03%. Mortgage applications decreased by 1.2%
Indicator of prospective home sales based on contract signings, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) dropped to 70.8 The level of contract activity in 2001 is represented by an index of 100. A continued dearth of inventory, high home prices and stable mortgage interest rates have kept would-be home buyers at bay this spring.”
The inventory picture There are now 539,000 single-family homes on the market unsold, which is up 3.2% Housing inventory climbed late in the year as mortgage rates rose. Rates are falling now and if that continues, buyers will jump and inventory will fall well into the first quarter of 2024. than last year at this time.
Specifically, when housing inventory is 25% greater than a year ago, the supply/demand balance is obviously very different than it has been. So while we can see currently the prices of home sales holding up, the signals for the end of 2024 and into 2025 seem to suggest we’re heading for flat home prices. Now it’s on the rise.
For comparison, the index is benchmarked at a reading of 100 based on 2001 contract activity. New home sales , another measure of contract signings, rose 8% in December on the back of declining mortgage rates. increase between 2024 and 2025 to a pace of 5.35 increase between 2024 and 2025 to a pace of 5.35 in November.
An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Pending sales are a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, so two consecutive months of declining pending home sales suggest a negative outlook for sales activity,” Odeta Kushi , First American’ s deputy chief economist, said in a statement.
Year-over-year, contract signings increased in all four U.S. Despite higher mortgage rates in November and persistent affordability challengers, buyers took advantage of more inventory as pending home sales reached the highest level in nearly two years, said First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi. in November.
from 2023, and the brokerage said that similar growth is expected in 2025. Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari believes that prices will continue to rise in 2025, an opinion shared by many industry observers. “Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago.
This week the available inventory of homes for sale inched down across the country. But it is indicative that we’re roughly at the peak of inventory for the summer. We may have a few more weeks of inventory gains, but the long stretch where inventory has been growing compared to a year ago is now over.
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