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Additionally, our weekly pending contract data and newlistings are trending positively compared to last year. If mortgage spreads were as bad as the worst levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be around 7.25% today. The more encouraging story, however, is that the spring season is shaping up positively for the housing market.
Last year, when mortgage rates ranged from 6.75% to 7.50%, the weekly data looked like this: 14 negative prints 2 flat prints 2 positive prints There was no year-over-year growth to report when comparing 2024 and 2023. And remember, mortgage rates fell to around 6% in late 2022 and early 2023.
However, the 10-year yield has managed to maintain its position, and the downtrend observed in the charts since the 10-year yield was at 5% in 2023 is still in place. Mortgage spreads The mortgage spread situation has shown improvement in 2024, in contrast to its negative performance in 2023. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
The three years in the post-pandemic housing market have been marked by very few sellers 60,000 newlistings in a given week vs. 80,000 in years’ past. Newlistings are low As we look deeper into the supply side of the market, there were 32,500 newlistings unsold this week. Each line is a year.
Newlistings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. But, we need to see more growth in newlistings data just to grow from 2023 levels. 2023newlistings data was the lowest ever on record, so it’s already a low bar. We have a much more normal marketplace in 2023 and 2024.
One of my critical forecasts for 2024 was the growth of newlistings data and active inventory, even with higher mortgage rates. However, the newlistings data has slightly disappointed me. Newlistings data I am pleased that we’ve seen newlistings data grow year over year — it’s a big step forward.
Newlisting data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. Unlike last year, when newlistings data had a noticeable move lower once mortgage rates reached 6%, 8% mortgage rates haven’t had any noticeable impact on the latest newlistings data.
This situation contrasts with the challenges the market faced in 2023, during the banking crisis when the Federal Reserve was still raising rates. In 2023, spreads reached as high as 3.10%. If we had experienced the worst mortgage spreads of 2023, mortgage rates would be 0.72% higher today. Weekly inventory change (Jan.
Remember that 2023 had the lowest newlistings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. One of the reasons total inventory data hasn’t gotten back to 2019 levels is the lack of sellers in 2023 and 2024. The price-cut percentage data is below 2022 levels and risks an earlier seasonal curve lower than 2022 and 2023.
While it’s common to see a seasonal dip in volume at this time of year, theres a silver lining: we’ve been observing solid year-over-year growth when comparing our data to 2022 and 2023. Mortgage rates would be near 8% if we had experienced the peak negative spreads of 2023. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
Newlistings ticked up by 21% in February compared to last year, according to Zillow ’s February report. Newlistings rose 20% from January, and each of the 50 largest U.S. metros experienced an increase in newlistings. Texas and Florida saw the biggest jump in newlistings, year over year.
from January 2023, reaching 6,008 units, according to Florida Realtors data compiled from local boards and associations. from January 2023. “Newlistings of single-family homes were up 16.7% year over year, while newlistings of townhouses and condos were up by 31.4%.” . from the same time last year.
We already see many signals for what to expect, including last week’s data on inventory , newlistings and price reductions, which I analyze below. Newlistings One way reason it will be hard for inventory to grow more than 17% next year is that there are still not enough sellers to get there.
The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly newlisting data is key. Newlisting data is growing year over year, but it will be the second-lowest newlisting data ever recorded in history. This is much different than what we saw in 2023.
Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. 9, 2022, and they’ll be ready for what’s coming next.
This is measurable in both the total unsold inventory and the number of newlistings each week. That pace slowed dramatically in 2022 and turned negative in January 2023. As demand recovered a bit in 2023, we moved into two years where home sales were down, but home prices were up. Well, newlistings are climbing.
The New Years week was expected to be slow, so it’s no surprise that newlistings and sales are down. The Christmas and New Year’s holidays fell on Wednesdays this year, which messes up two full weeks in terms of getting home sales done and tracking the numbers. Those will start rebounding in next weeks data.
Purchase application data Last year, when mortgage rates ranged from 6.75% to 7.50%, the weekly data looked like this: 14 negative prints 2 flat prints 2 positive prints There was no year-over-year growth to report when comparing 2024 and 2023. It is important to note that mortgage rates rose to around 6% in late 2022 and early 2023.
As rates climbed in 2023 in February, March, April, May all the way up to 7.5%, inventory grew each week pretty quickly. Newlistings To get a lot of homes on the market though we need some sellers. There were only 54,000 newlistings of single-family homes unsold this week. Unsold newlistings amount to 4.8%
Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. However, one thing is sure: from 2020 to 2023 we never saw credit-stressed home sellers. We never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing headlines in 2023. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
Last month’s reading marked the smallest monthly increase on a seasonally adjusted basis since January 2023. A slight uptick in newlistings has taken some of the pressure off sales prices as buyers have more options to choose from. Redfin data shows that newlistingsnewlistings were up 0.3%
If we were experiencing the worst mortgage spreads of 2023, mortgage rates would be 0.77% higher today. We are still showing higher growth versus 2023 levels, but not by much. The last two years were the two lowest newlistings data years in history, and they were also not healthy years for the newlistings data.
So where does all that drama leave us for 2023? My 2023 price forecast: As long as rates stay above 5.875% , my affordability index will see the pressure on home prices continue. For 2023, assuming rates stay above 5.875%, we should see a 5.9%-7.4% million in 2023. Buckle up as we look at each factor individually.
The largest drop since September 2023 was recorded in pending home sales, which fell 9.4% As newlistings increase and mortgage rates declineat least somewhatfrom their peak in early January, the market should pick up steam in the upcoming weeks. year-over-year. annuallysales are slow. Median asking price $407,225 5.2%
Newlistings move upward, but remain historically low Altos uses new real estate listings data as a key indicator of seller activity in the D.C NewListings are the homes that were listed for sale in a given week and added to the active inventory. housing market. As unemployment in D.C housing market.
The inventory peak came a month earlier than in 2023. That’s because in the fourth quarter 2023, the market was grinding to a halt. Newlistings rise There were just under 61,000 newlistings unsold this week. So, the newlistings volume last year was low and dropping. There are 29.8%
Florida had an uptick in inventory with a bit of a rebound in newlistings now that the storms are over. Newlistings go up This year continues to have slightly more sellers than last year but fewer than we used to get in past years. There were 60,000 newlistings unsold this week for single-family homes.
We saw this in September 2022, again in September 2023, in May 2024, and in February 2025. Newlistings Home sales growth has been one trend of the last month. There were just over 76,000 single-family newlistings unsold this week. This chart has a line for the weekly newlistings each year.
Did the recent move in higher mortgage rates impact the newlistings data more than normal? I hope this isn’t the case, but we had a noticeable move lower in newlistings last week. Weekly active listings rose by only 6,618. The Fed spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday but that didn’t move mortgage rates much.
Now were noticing some signals in the data that national home prices could turn negative this spring, showing year-over-year home-price declines for the first time since early 2023. In 2023, the spring slope was much less steep. In 2023, this number was 33.9%. By January 2023, price cuts were still elevated.
Newlistings are hitting the market Last year was an environment with 5% to 10% more sellers each week than a year prior. This week, the newlistings stat has grown with slightly more sellers. But weekly newlistings volume is low compared to January 2024, which is a sign of market stagnation.
month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,317,683the highest level reported since February 2023, and a 6% year-over-year jumpthe largest annual increase since July 2021. For the full year of 2024, actual existing-home sales came in at 4,189,268roughly in line with 2023. in December 2023. Just 25.1%
After the series wraps, join us on February 6 for the HW+ Virtual 2023 Forecast Event. Heading into 2023, it seems well within reason, given current trends, that a peak-to-trough decline in home prices of 10% is possible. . There will be two key differences between 2023 and 2010. Home Prices will fall, but don’t expect 2010.
While most of the country is suffering from declining inventory, LAs is up 33% year over year, and pending new sales have gradually risen since the beginning of 2023. Following Hurricane Milton in October, the Tampa metro area saw newlistings and new sales drop off a cliff. The current median home price is $1.47
Newlistings on trend Nationally, there were just 31,000 newlistings for single-family homes from the last week which included Thanksgiving weekend. The market has been averaging 51,000 new sales pending each week over the last four weeks, including the holiday. Will that momentum continue into the spring?
Divounguy: It was January 2023 and we had just experienced this record increase in interest rates. Zillow thinks we’ll have more sales in 2025 than we had in 2023 and 2024. What that tells me is that we really need more housing supply coming from new construction. Divounguy: We revised the sales number down slightly.
Further, growing activity in newly listed homes and a slower market pace could spell opportunity for winter buyers who want to get ahead of the busier spring season. 2023 Change over Dec. 2019 Median listing price -1.8% (to $402,502) +34.2% Active listings +22.0% -15.7% Newlistings +0.9% -11.0% 4.8% -2.3%
The bi-annual report reveals a resilient luxury real estate market in the first six months of 2024 that is slightly outpacing performance from the equivalent period in 2023. As evidence, “a notable uptick in sales was observed from January to May, coinciding with the introduction of newlistings,” according to the report.
Active listings of homes for sale rose to the highest level since early in the pandemic. Newlistings hit the highest level since July 2022, increasing 1.9% Demand is slowing: Listings are also piling up because there are fewer people buying homes. millionthe largest monthly decline since October 2023.
In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher right now.
As you can see below, even though home prices rose in 2023, the median sales price showed negative year-over-year growth in April, May and June of last year. As you can see above, starting in September of 2023, we saw steady year-over-year price growth increases in the data, making the year-over-year price comps harder this year.
I wish newlistings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless. I wish newlistings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless. We saw a slight decline in newlistings data week to week. So, the spreads getting better this year is a positive storyline.
However, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 data, as we desperately needed to get off those historically low levels of active listings. While I didn’t get my minimum target of 80,000 newlistings during this year’s peak seasonal weeks, I am pleased we saw growth. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
Almost every market in the country has more homes available now than at the end of 2023. Newlistings When we look at the sellers entering the market, there were 45,000 newlistings last week. That is 14% more home sellers listing their properties in December than the same week a year ago.
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