Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows.

Inventory 498

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 498

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year.

Inventory 523

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 523

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 516

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 516

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield ended the week roughly flat.

Inventory 537

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 537

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247.

Inventory 514

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 514

Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2024

We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housing inventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. have higher inventory than the national data.

Inventory 526

Inventory New Listings Contracts Mortgage 526

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. However, at the current trend, we will break below the lows in the price cut percentage data that we saw in 2023 in the spring of this year. So far, higher mortgage rates haven’t changed the data yet.

Inventory 541

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Weekly housing inventory data Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. 2022: 18.7%

Inventory 514

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 514

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2024

We saw a big jump in mortgage rates last week. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage, according to the HousingWire Mortgage Rates Center , is now over 7.2% — that’s 50 basis points above where we were at the start of the year. At that time, most of the voices in the media assumed that mortgage rates had peaked and would fall by now.

Inventory 459

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 459

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 23, 2024

And while the slower sales pace may not be great news for real estate professionals, it has resulted in an uptick in inventory , which is good news for homebuyers. For-sale inventory at the end of September was 1.39 month supply of unsold inventory, up from 4.2 months in September 2023. from September 2023.

Inventory 416

Inventory Realtors Buyers Real Estate 416

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising. Once I make some holiday adjustments, we have eight weeks of a positive trend since mortgage rates fell from the 8% high , and as of now, the slightly higher rates we’ve seen recently haven’t impacted the data just yet. This is common in January.

Inventory 525

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 525

Housing Wire

AUGUST 20, 2023

Last week, mortgage rates hit a 21st-century high, the 10-year yield closed slightly higher than my peak forecast for 2023 , and housing inventory growth was still slow. Mortgage rates went from 7.19%% to 7.37%. Last year, the seasonal decline took longer than usual, but 2022 was an abnormal year with mortgage rates.

Inventory 370

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 370

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

What’s going on with housing inventory ? The last four weeks of new listings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. In reality, the volatility in housing inventory is due to the Labor Day holiday, the start of school and the fact that new listings are trending at the lowest levels ever.

Inventory 505

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. 2022: 17.2% 2022: 17.2% So far, so good here.

Inventory 498

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 498

Housing Wire

MARCH 11, 2024

Last fall when people were still expecting mortgage rates to be falling this year, it was common to assume rates would be in the low 6s or 5s this year and people asked me if lower rates would bring a flood of inventory. The only way inventory would grow in 2024 is if mortgage rates climbed.

Inventory 516

Inventory New Listings Sellers Real Estate 516

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? We might have reached the peak in inventory this week.

Inventory 504

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 504

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

The housing market experienced more volatility last week, with housing inventory dropping as mortgage rates moved higher. The start of 2023 has been good, considering mortgage rates have stayed above 6% most of the time. However, we are working from a higher level in 2023. Since Nov.

Inventory 516

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 516

Housing Wire

JUNE 18, 2024

By now everyone knows that unsold inventory of homes on the market is climbing. But is that unsold inventory surging? As the economy stays surprisingly strong, mortgage rates have stayed higher for longer than anyone expected. In the last few weeks, Inventory is no longer growing compared to last year. Now there are 37.6%

Inventory 448

Inventory Contracts Housing Market New Listings 448

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. In addition, mortgage rates rose to a yearly high as labor data stayed firm and purchase apps had their first negative week after three straight weeks of positive growth. The 10-year yield is close to yearly highs as the U.S.

Inventory 501

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 501

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Mortgage rates were scarier than Freddy Krueger last week, rising to a 23-year high as some of the labor data surprised to the upside. Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise.

Inventory 508

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 508

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 5, 2024

18 and mortgage rates and bond yields headed higher. But, we have to remember that mortgage rates had already made an almost 2% move lower since the highs of 2023 without rate cuts, as the bond market always gets ahead of the Fed. This explains the rise in mortgage rates since the Fed cut rates.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 511

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

So far in 2024, fewer homes are taking price cuts than in 2023, and this trend is on the verge of breaking below the 2023 lows in price cuts percentages. While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data.

Inventory 521

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2024

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels.

Mortgage 524

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 524

Housing Wire

MAY 13, 2024

In 2023, home purchases slowed across the board due to low levels of inventory, high mortgage rates and soaring home prices. By comparison, mortgage applications for primary homes were down 20% year over year in 2023 and down 35% compared to 2021. of loans in 2023, 87.2% They took out 88.6% in 2022 and 5.1%

Mortgage 457

Mortgage Marketing Buyers Investing 457

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024. 2022 21.7%

Inventory 534

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 534

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2024

It’s the end of May and unsold inventory on the market is increasing across the U.S. Every state in the country has more homes on the market now than a year ago and, in many places, new construction is being completed and added to inventory, so it’s not just resale inventory that’s growing. Higher rates create more inventory.

Inventory 534

Inventory New Listings Contracts Sellers 534

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? Mortgage spreads Another way for mortgage rates to drop to the lowest level of the forecast or below is to improve mortgage spreads.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 533

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

An often misguided premise I see on social media is that lower mortgage rates are doing nothing for housing demand. Purchase application data First, purchase apps is the fastest way to look for positive or negative data at higher or lower mortgage rates. Weekly housing inventory data Higher rates lead to more inventory.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 521

Housing Wire

JULY 8, 2024

There have been a few markets; however, that have defied the national trends where inventory has stayed tighter and demand keeps rolling in. Available inventory of unsold homes in the U.S. It was the second half of the year last year when mortgage rates started rising. Inventory is rising everywhere in the country.

Inventory 482

Inventory Contracts Sellers New Listings 482

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023. I hope the seasonal bottom was two weeks ago.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

JUNE 4, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Mortgage rates fell last week after the debt ceiling issues were resolved, but the damage from higher rates took its toll on purchase application data again.

Inventory 468

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 468

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Another week down in 2023 and we’re seeing crazier action in the housing market as purchase application data fell, mortgage rates rose again, and weekly inventory took another dive with a noticeable move lower in new listing data. Mortgage rates hit 6.80%, marking the high point for 2023 so far.

Inventory 435

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 435

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S.

Inventory 493

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

Both existing housing inventory and home prices have been rising together year over year, which might seem odd at first glance since existing home sales are trending near all-time lows. When you connect the dots, this is a short and simple answer to why housing inventory and home prices are both rising. Sales descended 2.8%

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 482

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: The 10-year yield had a Lord of Rings battle at a critical technical level, pushing mortgage rates lower at the end of the week with no real break in the bond market.

Inventory 476

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 476

Housing Wire

AUGUST 29, 2024

Unsold inventory of homes on the market has been climbing in the U.S. for two years, right along with rising mortgage rates. In general, inventory rises with rates because more expensive money slows demand. When demand slows, inventory grows. Inventory is climbing but it’s still pretty restricted.

Inventory 482

Inventory Real Estate Housing Market Construction 482