Housing Wire

JANUARY 22, 2024

Those metrics, specifically the pace of new listings and new sales contracts, slowed this week. Our immediate sales metric of homes that get offers within a couple days of listing also slowed. New listings and new contracts both still show a bit of improvement over 2023, but the growth rates have slid back down.

Real Estate 442

Real Estate New Listings Contracts Inventory 442

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Inventory, new listings, sales, and prices all dipped this week. The election took up a lot of peoples’ lives last week, and that obviously delayed some listing and sales activity, plus we’ve had spiking mortgage rates. This has been true all year long, starting in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Housing Market 372

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 372

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2024

If you’ve been paying attention, you know that the housing supply isn’t just the unsold inventory, it’s also a factor of new listings volume each week. The signal that we watch for in the new listings count is whether there are too many sellers. New listings up There were just over 60,000 new listings unsold this week.

Sellers 438

Sellers Inventory New Listings Contracts 438

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 26, 2024

Since mid-2022 when mortgage rates headed higher , two facts have been apparent: new listings data has been trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history and inventory has been able to grow from record low levels thanks to mortgage rates staying elevated. Let’s see what the data for last week tells us.

Inventory 511

Inventory Sellers New Listings Mortgage 511

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2024

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. Weekly pending sales Below is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data to show real-time demand. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 511

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2024

We have had three weeks of positive year-over-year growth in both purchase application data and weekly pending contract data, with last week showing a noticeable jump from last year. Weekly pending sales Below is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data to show real-time demand. Weekly inventory change (Oct 11-Oct.

Inventory 480

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Contracts 480

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

You also know that new listings are up over last year, too. New listings volume is up, too. There were 58,000 new listings this week, with 10,000 of those homes already under contract as immediate sales. We had 52,000 new pending sales this week. Short on time?

New Listings 506

New Listings Contracts Inventory Housing Market 506

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2023

The number of new listings coming on the market this spring is lower than it has been in more than a decade. Sales and new pending contracts are below pre-pandemic levels. What can we expect in 2023? At the same time, there are some key trends I think will characterize the housing market in 2023.

Housing Market 437

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Buyers 437

Housing Wire

JULY 15, 2024

If we look at the housing market right now, sales are down, new listings are down and prices are decelerating. Home prices and new listings dipped too. On the pricing side, last week had the first negative print on year-over-year price for new listings. Is it darkest before the dawn?

Housing Market 494

Housing Market New Listings Marketing Mortgage 494

Housing Wire

JULY 29, 2024

New home sales contracts are coming in pretty consistently fewer than last year — 4.9% Our Immediate sales measure of homes that get listed, take offers and go into contract in a few days is also notably lower than last year. On the supply side, new listings are slightly more than a year ago, but pulling back.

Housing Market 384

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 384

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2024

Mortgage spreads The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has been an issue since 2022, and in 2023, things got worse after the March 2023 banking crisis. If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher.

Mortgage 502

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 502

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2024

Now that we are halfway through the year, we can see that active inventory in America is growing, unlike what happened in 2023. As we can see below, it’s a much healthier year in inventory growth data than in 2023. This is precisely what the doctor ordered for the housing market. However, this year, spreads have improved.

Housing Market 473

Housing Market Mortgage Inventory Marketing 473

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2024

New listings climbed during the past week and there are now 72,000 more single-family homes on the market. It appeared that new listings might be on the decline already, but the pace picked up a tad this week, which is encouraging. New listings There were 72,000 new listings this week.

Inventory 527

Inventory New Listings Contracts Sellers 527

Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2024

However, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 data, as we desperately needed to get off those historically low levels of active listings. While I didn’t get my minimum target of 80,000 new listings during this year’s peak seasonal weeks, I am pleased we saw growth. Weekly inventory change (Aug.

Inventory 515

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Contracts 515

Housing Wire

MAY 13, 2024

Inventory in 2023 didn’t really accelerate until mortgage rates approached 8% in the fall. New listings Slightly fewer new listings hit the market this week — 69,000 single-family homes that are newly listed, plus another 20,000 listed that are already under contract. Home sales peak in June.

New Listings 451

New Listings Contracts Inventory Sellers 451

Housing Wire

MAY 22, 2024

As you can see below, even though home prices rose in 2023, the median sales price showed negative year-over-year growth in April, May and June of last year. As you can see above, starting in September of 2023, we saw steady year-over-year price growth increases in the data, making the year-over-year price comps harder this year.

Inventory 487

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Contracts 487

Housing Wire

AUGUST 6, 2024

Last year at this time, mortgage rates were rising, eventually peaking at 8% in October 2023. You can see the late 2023 inventory build in this chart in the bright red line. New listings ticked down Most of the total inventory fluctuations have been demand-driven this year. All year people were expecting rates to decline.

Mortgage 477

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 477

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2024

This podcast video is a tutorial on how to track this and why the 2023 housing price-crash people got it wrong because they have no working models. Pending contracts First, we must realize that we are working with the third calendar year of the lowest home sales ever recorded, once you adjust that number to the workforce.

Inventory 505

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Contracts 505

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2024

The median price of the homes that went into contract this week — these are the new purchase offers with contracts pending — is now 6% greater than last year. Florida had an uptick in inventory with a bit of a rebound in new listings now that the storms are over. Home prices ticked up this week.

Inventory 438

Inventory New Listings Sellers Contracts 438

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2023

At least, that’s what the data seems to suggest as inventory grows and new listings decline at a less aggressive rate than last year. New listings decline isn’t as steep as a year ago There were only 53,000 new listings (single-family homes) unsold this week, plus 10,000 more new listings that are already in contract.

New Listings 500

New Listings Inventory Contracts Housing Market 500

Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2024

Mortgage spreads The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has been an issue since 2022 and things got worse after the March 2023 banking crisis. If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.52% higher.

Mortgage 491

Mortgage Inventory Marketing New Listings 491

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Remember that 2023 had the lowest new listings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. One of the reasons total inventory data hasn’t gotten back to 2019 levels is the lack of sellers in 2023 and 2024. The price-cut percentage data is below 2022 levels and risks an earlier seasonal curve lower than 2022 and 2023.

Inventory 481

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 481

Housing Wire

MARCH 25, 2024

New listings Each week this spring we’ve been tracking the new listings volume. Last week we saw just over 60,000 new listings added to the inventory with another 17,000 new listings / immediate sales. In total, new listings data is 14% more than last year. A year with 5.5

New Listings 506

New Listings Inventory Contracts Sellers 506

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

This week, we count 14% more homes in the contract pending stage now than a year ago. Another tricky part of communicating this news is that home sales aren’t suddenly great. The inventory peak came a month earlier than in 2023. That’s because in the fourth quarter 2023, the market was grinding to a halt. There are 29.8%

Inventory 317

Inventory New Listings Sellers Contracts 317

Housing Wire

JANUARY 8, 2024

Based on the trends we can see after the start of the year, I’ll project 2024 will see about 15% home sales growth over 2023. These are very clear trends as we start the new year. 2023 started with recovery, but slowed down in Q3 as mortgage rates hit 8%. There are now 247,000 single family homes in contract.

Real Estate 508

Real Estate Marketing Inventory New Listings 508

Housing Wire

JUNE 3, 2024

These are the homes that go into contract immediately after listing. We also see new pending sales slowing and price reductions ticking up. New listings dry up On the other hand, inventory can’t build too much if sellers don’t sell. There were only 63,000 new listings this week.

Inventory 504

Inventory Contracts New Listings Sellers 504

Housing Wire

JULY 8, 2024

After June 2023, mortgage rates climbed from the 6s into the 7s on the way to 8% by October. Massachusetts and New York, for example, are still just coming off the record tight markets of the pandemic, but that trend is changing — finally. We saw 71,000 new listings for single-family homes this week.

Inventory 478

Inventory Contracts Sellers New Listings 478

Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2024

The labor market has allowed mortgage rates to stay higher for longer and with the inventory growth this year, I feel much better about rates falling than I did in 2022 or 2023. The seasonal decline in new listings will begin soon and we will see if we get fewer sellers in the second half of the year than the current trend.

Inventory 525

Inventory New Listings Contracts Mortgage 525

Housing Wire

JUNE 22, 2024

Purchase application data When mortgage rates fell more than 1% lower in late 2022 and 2023, we saw a sustained bounce higher in purchase application data, which eventually lead to a higher monthly sales print. If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.47% higher.

Mortgage 421

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 421

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. 2024 is the second-lowest new listing year recorded in history. Weekly inventory change (Aug.

Inventory 524

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 524

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 4, 2023

New listings and home sales remain low this week while available inventory of unsold homes is finally falling across the country after rising with mortgage rates late into November. It’s looking like we’ll end 2023 with higher housing inventory than this time last year. We want new listings volume to show growth.

Housing Market 505

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2024

With the Easter holiday last week, data for housing inventory , new listings and the pace of new contracts started all took a breather from their growth pace. Here’s how 2024 is shaping up: There are now more listings, more active inventory and more sales than a year ago. But they’re all gaining over last year.

Inventory 484

Inventory Contracts New Listings Sellers 484

Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2024

Mortgage spreads Mortgage spreads were a negative storyline in 2023 as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the resulting banking crisis pushed the spreads to new cycle highs. If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.49% higher right now.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 511

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Mortgage spreads were a negative storyline in 2023, as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting banking crisis pushed them to new cycle highs. Also, the spreads were elevated in 2023, so they have had room to go lower, which they have.

Mortgage 524

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 524

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2024

There were very few buyers in the fourth quarter 2023. Pending home sales continue to climb There are 362,000 single-family homes under contract. This is measuring the total count of homes that are under contract now. We’re showing 6% more homes under contract now than last year. Last year’s home sales were low.

Housing Market 458

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Contracts 458

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.58% higher right now. However, I missed my 2024 forecast of at least 80,000 new listings per week this year during the seasonal peak months by roughly 5,000. Outside of that, you need weaker economic or labor data.

Mortgage 520

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 520

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 25, 2024

Home prices jump The median price of the homes that went into contract this week jumped to $389,900. It’s the second week in a row with an uptick in the price of the homes going into contract. It now looks like we’ll end the year with about 27% more unsold inventory than the end of 2023. That’s an increase of 1.6%

Inventory 408

Inventory New Listings Sellers Contracts 408