Housing Wire

JUNE 10, 2024

Mortgage rate lock-in happens because even small changes in mortgage rates can make a big difference in costs. in April 2024 — with a 10% down payment, a typical mortgage would be approximately $350,000. For every 50 basis point change in mortgage rates, the monthly payment for this house would change by $112.In

Mortgage 434

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 434

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2024

In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. Mortgage spreads Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%.

Mortgage 513

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Contracts 513

Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2024

Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? Now, with mortgage rates dropping below that 7.25% level recently, inventory hasn’t been able to hit that growth model once. However, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 data, as we desperately needed to get off those historically low levels of active listings.

Inventory 518

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Contracts 518

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2024

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels.

Mortgage 520

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 520

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

An often misguided premise I see on social media is that lower mortgage rates are doing nothing for housing demand. Purchase application data First, purchase apps is the fastest way to look for positive or negative data at higher or lower mortgage rates. That’s ok — very few people are looking at the data without an agenda.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? Mortgage spreads Another way for mortgage rates to drop to the lowest level of the forecast or below is to improve mortgage spreads.

Mortgage 530

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 530

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. However, as mortgage rates have fallen recently , I haven’t been able to hit my targets, which isn’t a surprise.

Inventory 533

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 533

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 5, 2024

18 and mortgage rates and bond yields headed higher. But, we have to remember that mortgage rates had already made an almost 2% move lower since the highs of 2023 without rate cuts, as the bond market always gets ahead of the Fed. This explains the rise in mortgage rates since the Fed cut rates.

Mortgage 507

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 507

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage 520

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 520

Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2024

Mortgage rates moved massively lower last week without any Federal Reserve rate cuts, primarily because the labor market is getting softer. Can mortgage rates go even lower? We don’t have that variable this year and spreads have improved earlier than I thought, which has helped mortgage pricing.

Mortgage 517

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 517

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2024

Have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates for 2024 after a crazy roller coaster ride so far this year? My 2024 forecast had a mortgage rate range of 7.25%-5.75%. To get to the lower end of this range, we needed to see two things: the labor market getting softer and the mortgage spreads improving. Yes, here’s how and why.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 521

Appraisal Buzz

MARCH 26, 2024

As of March 17, there were roughly 795,645 active listings. There were roughly 88,902 new listings added during that same four weeks – and increase of 15% and the biggest increase since June 2021. The surge in listings is bringing some buyers back to the market, the firm says. The median U.S. home-sale price is up 5.3%

New Listings 195

New Listings Buyers Marketing Inventory 195

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

Inventory 473

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 473

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2024

Given last week’s surprising jobs report, how much longer will we have to deal with higher mortgage rates ? It’s essential to track the labor data along with inflation because the key to getting lower mortgage rates for longer lies with the labor data more than inflation.

Mortgage 507

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 507

Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls, and the price-cut percentage grows.

Inventory 508

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 508

Housing Wire

JULY 15, 2024

If we look at the housing market right now, sales are down, new listings are down and prices are decelerating. Good inflation data came in last week, the bond market rallied and mortgage rates took a notable dip below 7% for the first time in months. Maybe we’re finally past the peak of mortgage rates ? and stay there.

Housing Market 497

Housing Market New Listings Marketing Mortgage 497

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 26, 2024

Since mid-2022 when mortgage rates headed higher , two facts have been apparent: new listings data has been trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history and inventory has been able to grow from record low levels thanks to mortgage rates staying elevated. Let’s see what the data for last week tells us.

Inventory 519

Inventory Sellers New Listings Mortgage 519

Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2024

Since May 29, we’ve witnessed a decline in the 10-year yield, which has been favorable for mortgage rates. 10-year yield and mortgage rates After the intense jobs week data , we ran straight into CPI and PPI inflation week, with a Fed meeting thrown in! Once mortgage rates began rising in 2024, some demand was removed.

Mortgage 501

Mortgage Inventory Marketing New Listings 501

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 535

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 535

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 541

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

Mortgage 532

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 532

Housing Wire

JUNE 22, 2024

Are we seeing the start of a market shift in mortgage demand? Notably, mortgage rates have been gradually declining, and we’ve observed back-to-back positive weeks in purchase application data for the first time since mid-March. For now, we just had back-to-back weeks of positive growth, with mortgage rates still around 7%.

Mortgage 443

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 443

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2024

In March of 2022, we only had 240,000 active single-family homes available for sale, leading me to call the housing market savagely unhealthy as we simply had too many people chasing too few homes. Now that we are halfway through the year, we can see that active inventory in America is growing, unlike what happened in 2023.

Housing Market 475

Housing Market Mortgage Inventory Marketing 475

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 533

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. We haven’t broken either yet.

Mortgage 495

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 495

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Mortgage rates and the bond market have fallen a bit recently and the spreads between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have improved over last year’s levels. In the past two years, demand has always picked up whenever mortgage rates have moved lower with some duration. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 466

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 536

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 536

Housing Wire

AUGUST 6, 2024

Mortgage rates are dropping fast. Mortgage rates are now the lowest they’ve been in over a year. Last year at this time, mortgage rates were rising, eventually peaking at 8% in October 2023. We should be able to measure how demand changes over the next few weeks if rates stay at these new lower levels.

Mortgage 481

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 481

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. New listings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Is the seasonal bottom going to happen later than I want?

Inventory 521

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

Mortgage 543

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 543

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

After mortgage rates spiked to 8% in October, causing a riot in the real estate industry, we had an epic move lower in mortgage rates last week. Does this mean we’ve hit the peak in mortgage rates for this economic cycle? When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, the percentage of homes with price cuts can grow.

Mortgage 502

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Real Estate 502

Housing Wire

JUNE 1, 2024

Mortgage rates have been a bit more volatile recently due to hawkish Federal Reserve statements and inflation data, which has impacted some of the recent movement in the 10-year yield. So, what does this all mean for the housing market and the future of mortgage rates? Once mortgage rates began rising in 2024, some demand was removed.

Mortgage 480

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 480

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 524

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 524

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Four weeks ago was the best week of inventory growth in 2024, as we hit my model range without higher mortgage rates : I gave it the chef’s kiss. Remember that 2023 had the lowest new listings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. National data: Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 497

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 497

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

Mortgage rates have risen recently but they could be much worse than they are today. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. The most important data line for me, along with mortgage rates , is jobless claims data because I value labor data over inflation. That hasn’t happened.

Mortgage 497

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 497

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2024

We saw a big jump in mortgage rates last week. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage, according to the HousingWire Mortgage Rates Center , is now over 7.2% — that’s 50 basis points above where we were at the start of the year. At that time, most of the voices in the media assumed that mortgage rates had peaked and would fall by now.

Inventory 446

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 446

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Now the dose of reality: last year at this time mortgage rates were heading toward 8% , and even though 2023 showed record low sales levels, it got worse with 8% rates. This data line is very seasonal, as we can see in the chart below, and we remember how high mortgage rates were at this time last year.

Inventory 499

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Contracts 499