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Mortgage applications rise to highest level since July 2022

Housing Wire

Mortgage applications are now at their highest level in more than two years after an 11% jump during the week ending Sept. 20, according to the newest weekly applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for 5.9% on mortgages with 80% loan-to-value ratios.

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New home sales still growing from 2022 lows 

Housing Wire

New home sales have been one of the brighter housing stories since the home sales crash in 2022 — as we can see in the chart below, new home sales have been able to grow since then. This is one reason why the homebuilder stocks have done so well since November of 2022. The monthly supply of new homes is still at an elevated level of 8.3

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Mortgage rates head lower, helped by better mortgage spreads

Housing Wire

In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. Mortgage spreads Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%.

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Mortgage rates helped by the Fed’s moderate stance

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

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How are mortgage rates affecting housing demand?

Housing Wire

It has been almost two months since mortgage rates spiked again, and my initial thought was this would tank housing demand. We had a positive 18-week period with purchase applications before mortgage rates started rising in September. Initially, the data showed more robust performance as mortgage rates approached 6%.

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Housing demand firming up with lower mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels.

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Can mortgage rates go even lower?

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? Mortgage spreads Another way for mortgage rates to drop to the lowest level of the forecast or below is to improve mortgage spreads.

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