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Newlisting data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. Unlike last year, when newlistings data had a noticeable move lower once mortgage rates reached 6%, 8% mortgage rates haven’t had any noticeable impact on the latest newlistings data.
Total home sales are outpacing newlistings by a wide margin every month, and real estate tech company Homesnap foresees the shortage continuing in 2021 unless more sellers enter the market. The divide between supply and demand is striking: compared to last year, total newlistings increased.22%,
Since I believe most home sellers are also homebuyers, once newlistings created a new low level after mortgage rates reached over 6% in 2022, it added another layer of home demand falling off a cliff. What we want to see in 2024 is newlisting data growing in the spring season. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
This got tested in 2023 with 8% mortgage rates ; not only did that not happen, but the newlisting data was very stable, meaning it was forming a bottom. However, the key to this data line is that we want to see real year-over-year growth in the spring of 2024 — back to levels of 2021 and 2022. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
As of March 17, there were roughly 795,645 active listings. There were roughly 88,902 newlistings added during that same four weeks – and increase of 15% and the biggest increase since June 2021. The surge in listings is bringing some buyers back to the market, the firm says. The total number of U.S.
Instead of making up for the shortfall, newlistings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, newlisting volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. Home prices in most big cities also increased.
The other data line that is small but steady year-over-year is the newlistings data, and if most sellers are buyers, that gives us more demand than in 2023, when newlistings were trending at the lowest levels ever. I love that newlistings data is growing yearly, but it’s been too light for me.
Here is the price cut percentage data for the same week in other years: 2023 38% 2022 42% 2021 27% As you can see, affordability is an issue, and the price cut percentage is higher now than in any period from 2015-2021, but still below 2022 levels. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
While the percentage of price cuts is still much higher than 2021 levels, this explains why prices were stable in the second half of 2023 versus the second half of 2022. Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more. I talked about this on CNBC a few months ago.
After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, newlistings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, newlistings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. million in January 2021 (when mortgage rates were 2.7%) fell to 3.9
Typically we have a natural set of newlistings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. in 2021 and as high as 6.25% in 2022. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the newlisting data. But now this is a real risk. The parts of the U.S.
18): Inventory fell from 569,571 to 564,571 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,104,514 Newlistings data fell weekly but showed positive year-over-year growth. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
The last four weeks of newlistings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in newlistings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes. What’s going on with housing inventory ? 18: 60,295 Aug.
Newlistings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Total active listings grew by 3,809 weekly, but newlistings are still trending at all-time lows. However, at this time last year, we saw some newlistings growth versus 2021 levels. million.
The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and newlisting inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and newlisting data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023.
Meanwhile, homeowners association (HOA) fees multiplied for many condo buildings in the aftermath of the 2021 Surfside condo collapse. In May 2022, the Florida Legislature introduced a new condominium safety law, which mandates more rigorous inspections and stronger financial reserves for HOAs.
18): Inventory fell from 564,571 to 550,302 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,081,712 The one positive inventory story in 2023 is that we formed a bottom in the newlistings data! Weekly inventory change (Nov.
RE/MAX has released new data through its National Housing Report covering the month of June which found that halfway through the peak summer buying season inventory is up, yet still below levels seen in 2021, but more signs are starting to appear signaling a more balanced market may soon be a reality.
And 54% of homes sold above their asking price in May — another a record high, up from 26% a year ago, according to a new report from Redfin. The report also shows the housing market also set new records for home-selling speeds and competition, although seasonally adjusted home sales and newlistings flattened from April.
Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and newlistings declined. However, one thing is for sure, housing is not going to crash due to large-scale panic-selling — a scare tactic of late 2021 that didn’t work then or now.
Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and newlisting data is trending at all-time lows. This year looks similar to 2021 data, which bottomed on April 9 , so April could be the turning point. The NAR data going back decades shows how difficult it’s been to get back to anything normal on the active listing side.
Newlistings each week, which were record few last year, are growing now. Newlistings volume climbing I want to start today with the newlistings volume, which is notably finally climbing over last year’s anemic levels. There were 66,000 newlistings this week, of which 14,000 are already in contract.
4): Inventory fell from 578,089 to 574,973 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 566,882 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,140,753 Newlistings data has been trending at the lowest levels ever for 15 months now, and not too much has changed from that trend.
The last two years were the two lowest newlistings data years in history. We also got to 80,000 in 2021 and 2022, so I am not asking a lot here, but we didnt get it last year when I was sure we would. Weekly inventory change (Jan. 31-Feb 7): Inventory fell from 634,979 to 632,367 The same week last year (Feb.
One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in newlistings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. Redfin : Realtor.com : Altos Research : Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in newlistings as the data has been negative now for months. What does this mean?
Weekly housing inventory Since newlisting data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. This link explains the difference and is worth a read.
They went all in during COVID-19 in 2020, doubled down in 2021 as the forbearance crash bros but really bet the farm on a massive home-price crash in 2023 after the most significant home sales crash ever in 2022. This was a big deal, and the weekly Housing Market Tracker of newlisting data was all over this.
We saw some good growth this week, and hopefully, in 2024, we can close the gap and get back to 2021-2022 data on newlistings. That is the critical period for newlisting data to grow; remember, most sellers are buyers. Weekly inventory change (Nov. 23 and went from 8% to 7.38% on Nov.
Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and newlisting data showed some growth. If that is the case, then this week’s gain in active inventory and newlistings needs to be taken with a grain of salt until we get next week’s data. However, I will take what I can now.
We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing newlisting data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the newlisting data started to decline at the end of June.
This is what we see, and it’s much needed; we need more newlistings and not fewer. Newlistings data for last week in the last several years: 2023: 39,613 2022: 34,973 2021: 39,936 Traditionally, one-third of all homes will have price cuts before they sell. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.
Active inventory fell by 3,141, and newlisting data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. It looks similar to 2021 data, which bottomed on April 9. The NAR data going back decades shows how difficult it’s been to get back to anything normal on the active listing side. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%.
Active inventory fell 1,109, and newlisting data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. One piece of good news last week was that the newlisting data, which saw a significant collapse two weeks ago, rebounded excellently to return to a usual trend.
During that period, we saw newlisting data decline. However, in 2020 newlisting data came back, and we don’t want to see the newlistings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market. from December 2021 ($358,800), as prices rose in all regions.
A surge in newlistings of luxury homes was not enough to curb the price growth associated with rising demand. Newlistings of luxury homes soared 18.5% Luxury sales started to post year-over-year increases in January for the first time since August 2021. During the three months ending Feb. year over year.
According to a report produced by Douglas Elliman and real estate appraisal company Miller Samuel , single-family home listings sloped down 58% year-over-year in July 2021 to a paltry 20 total in the famous ski-resort town. This is probably not the time to buy your Aspen dream home. The slightly more affordable Aspen option are condos.
7): Inventory rose from 561,229 to 562,249 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 537,032 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,168,416 Newlistings data has been trending at the lowest levels recorded in history for over 13 months but at least it’s been an orderly decline.
Inventory levels are also still higher than the COVID-19 inventory lows: In late February 2021, inventory levels sat at 2,414 single-family units. Newlistings remain low as owners lock in Altos’s data for newlistings accounts for single-family homes that come to market without an immediate or pending contract.
Newlistings volume is trying to grow with its biggest week since September. List prices inched up for the week, though sales prices did not advance. NEWLISTINGS There was a nice jump in the newlistings volume this week. I have the weekly newlistings volume in this chart.
NewListings Tick Up Slightly, But Overall Housing Supply Remains at Record Low Newlistings rose 0.8% Year-over-year newlistings were down 14.4%. Newlistings have likely bottomed out,” she said. year over year, the largest annual decline since June 2021. million in August, falling 1.1%
This is clear in the chart below, which shows the year-over-year percent change in the four-week average of newlistings. This data, courtesy of Altos, shows that newlistings retreat when rates rise and accelerate when rates fall: High rates are bad, too, for the sellers who decided to list their homes.
Weekly inventory fell much more than the previous two weeks, down 11,021; newlisting growth had its lowest weekly calendar print for this previous week. The newlisting data had its lowest weekly print ever, down slightly from last year but more noticeably from what we traditionally saw in the previous decade.
The market is still competitive, but buyers are more trepidatious than they were at the start of 2021, and less willing to pull out every stop in order to win.” An improving supply situation may also be making a difference, with newlistings up 4% year over year — meaning more properties are hitting the market for buyers to bid on.
As part of “team higher rates” in 2021 and 2022, this is precisely what I wanted to see happen because we can’t assume mortgage rates will stay elevated in the 7%-8% range. 2024 is the second-lowest newlisting year recorded in history. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
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