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Even prior to the pandemic , housing inventory had hit record lows, and the problem has only gotten worse as demand continues to rise. Total home sales are outpacing newlistings by a wide margin every month, and real estate tech company Homesnap foresees the shortage continuing in 2021 unless more sellers enter the market.
Newlisting data appears unafraid of the mortgage rate ghost story over the last few months. Unlike last year, when newlistings data had a noticeable move lower once mortgage rates reached 6%, 8% mortgage rates haven’t had any noticeable impact on the latest newlistings data.
Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
What’s going on with housing inventory ? The last four weeks of newlistings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in newlistings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes.
Have we seen the peak in housing inventory for 2024? The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. Weekly inventory change (Aug. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and newlistinginventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and newlisting data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!
Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023.
We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housing inventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. Yes, home prices are still rising in 2024, but the pace is significantly slower than in 2020 and 2021.
The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listinginventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing.
One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in newlistings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. Redfin : Realtor.com : Altos Research : Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in newlistings as the data has been negative now for months. What does this mean?
However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?
Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and newlistings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.
Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.
The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast.
Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise. Not only has that not happened, but in the last two weeks, with mortgage rates pushing even higher, active inventory only grew by 2,286 single-family homes.
On Friday NAR reported that total housing inventory levels broke under 1 million in December, dropping to 970,00 units for a population of 330 million people. million in January down to about 4 million in December, We now have total inventory levels near all-time lows again. During that period, we saw newlisting data decline.
The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes.
31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.
Prices are up sharply as housing inventory continues to plateau , leaving 40% fewer homes on the market compared to last year, according to a report prepared by Black Knight. Instead of making up for the shortfall, newlistings have slumped further in 2021. The post Housing inventory is down 40%.
Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and newlisting data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. The answer is no, because active listings fell to a new low last week for 2023, so we have to wait and see if April will be the month.
Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and newlisting data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.
Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024. 2022 21.7%
The housing inventory shortage dominated much of the conversation surrounding the housing market in 2022, but thanks to softening homebuyer demand, the number of active listings finished the year up 54.7% Despite this sizable yearly increase, active housing inventory was down 33.4% from December 2021.
The housing market saw inventory fall 4% last week from the week before. Does that mean we are heading back to all-time lows in inventory again for 2023? During the last four weeks and especially this past week, we are seeing inventory decline faster than expected. Weekly housing inventory. Weekly inventory change: (Dec.
Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. To give you an idea how different this year is from last year, last week in 2022, active listings grew 30,940 while this year they only grew 5,848. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year.
These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Active inventory fell 1,109, and newlisting data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.
Summer is here, and housing inventory is finally growing! The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. million in October 2021). We saw newlisting data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time.
Available inventory of homes for sale is on the rise in late September, which is very unusual for this time of year. In fact, inventory is growing faster than this time a year ago. This is a demand-driven slowdown, because newlistings supply is still running 9% to 10% fewer homes for sale each week than this time last year.
Despite mortgage rates briefly falling below the 6% threshold, both housing inventory and mortgage demand fell last week. Weekly Housing Inventory A few weeks ago, I was encouraged that we had a slight increase in inventory and a small decline the following week. This week inventory fell 8,664 units from the previous week.
With a rapid spike in interest rates, inventory at historic lows, home prices rising at unprecedented levels above income, and a purchase market that is both highly anxious and digitally reliant, mortgage and real estate professionals must be strategic to capture the market opportunity today. Inventory rising, historically low.
Will inventory levels skyrocket as federal workers leave? Weekly housing inventory ramps up What do we see in the data on housing inventory levels in the D.C. Weekly housing inventory ramps up What do we see in the data on housing inventory levels in the D.C. But inventory remains well below historical averages.
Another week down in 2023 and we’re seeing crazier action in the housing market as purchase application data fell, mortgage rates rose again, and weekly inventory took another dive with a noticeable move lower in newlisting data. Things are different post-2020, and inventory is bottoming out later in the year.
With mortgage rates briefly topping 8% and home prices breaking records throughout the year, many would-be sellers simply decided not to bother listing their homes, exacerbating already tight inventories. New data from the U.S. percentage points, the fastest pace of hikes in four decades.
The housing inventory data from last week makes me wonder if we are starting the seasonal decline in active listings in August. Saying that the housing inventory growth in 2023 has been disappointing is an understatement. Then the growth rate was so slow that we had weeks of negative year-over-year inventory data.
As a result, the available inventory of homes for sale is slightly higher each week. With fewer transactions, inventory is building just a bit as we approach the end of the summer. When will inventory peak for the year? InventoryInventory is still climbing just a bit each week as we approach the end of the season.
Last week, mortgage rates hit a 21st-century high, the 10-year yield closed slightly higher than my peak forecast for 2023 , and housing inventory growth was still slow. Weekly active listings rose by only 4,401. Will higher rates extend the inventory season, or are we going into the traditional seasonal decline?
The slow rise of housing inventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. However, last week was good; we had less inventory growth than I would like to see, but it’s better than the past few weeks. But last week did see some growth in active listings, even though it’s less than I was hoping for.
Weekly housing inventory data We are near the end of the year, which means the seasonal decline in housing inventory will take hold until we find the seasonal bottom in inventory in 2024. Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
So, it was necessary to highlight that for this report because our fresh current inventory data paints a different picture. Looking ahead, price growth will cool down in the second half of 2024 because of increased inventory and more homes taking a price cut before selling. from the previous year ($385,800). All four U.S.
Weekly housing inventory data We will start with the price cut data percentage because it deserves a detailed explanation. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data. Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of newlistings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.
Weekly housing inventory data It’s December, which means the seasonal decline in housing inventory is well underway, which means in 2023, I have batted a whopping zero on how much I predicted weekly inventory would grow with higher mortgage rates. Now, we see the seasonal inventory decline. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
While the percentage of price cuts is still much higher than 2021 levels, this explains why prices were stable in the second half of 2023 versus the second half of 2022. Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more. I talked about this on CNBC a few months ago.
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