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Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020. million and 6.16
Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
Have we seen the peak in housing inventory for 2024? The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housing inventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. Yes, home prices are still rising in 2024, but the pace is significantly slower than in 2020 and 2021.
What’s going on with housing inventory ? In reality, the volatility in housing inventory is due to the Labor Day holiday, the start of school and the fact that new listings are trending at the lowest levels ever. Weekly housing inventory Some of the volatility with new listings data has also hit the active listings data.
2 million , we could be at risk of housing inventory falling to such low levels that I would have to categorize this housing market as unhealthy. 2020 and 2021 easily each have over 6.2 We can see that inventory falling to such low levels has created unhealthy home-price growth in both 2020 and 2021.
According to a report from Redfin, for-sale inventory at the end of January in Florida was up 22.7% Redfin attributes the rise in inventory to several factors. Those dues are up because of regulation related to structural concerns that followed the Surfside condo collapse in 2021. year over year.
The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!
Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.
The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. Since 2020, the seasonal inventory bump has happened later than usual — not until March or April.
However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?
Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.
Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.
On Friday NAR reported that total housing inventory levels broke under 1 million in December, dropping to 970,00 units for a population of 330 million people. million in January down to about 4 million in December, We now have total inventory levels near all-time lows again. from December 2021 ($358,800), as prices rose in all regions.
One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in new listings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. One thing that I have stressed is that higher mortgage rates can create a slowdown in demand and thus allow more inventory to accumulate through a weakness in demand. million to 1.93
more than 2023 and the highest sales have been since 2021. In many markets, there was simply more new home inventory and some buyers who might have wanted to purchase an existing home were instead looking at new construction, said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant in a statement. gain compared to November.
home prices are quickly shifting the affordability calculus for prospective homebuyers in 2021 — even though mortgage rates have remained near record lows. Despite average 30-year mortgage rates that have remained below 3% for most of 2021, the rapid home price increases are eroding affordability for average wage earners. Among 75 U.S.
And while the slower sales pace may not be great news for real estate professionals, it has resulted in an uptick in inventory , which is good news for homebuyers. For-sale inventory at the end of September was 1.39 month supply of unsold inventory, up from 4.2 million, up 1.5% from August and up 23% from one year ago.
The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes.
It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? Now don’t get me wrong: demand is better in 2020 and 2021 than in any single year from 2008 to 2019. We had roughly 300,000 more existing home sales in 2020 than in 2019 and 800,000 more in 2021.
31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.
The housing market saw inventory fall 4% last week from the week before. Does that mean we are heading back to all-time lows in inventory again for 2023? During the last four weeks and especially this past week, we are seeing inventory decline faster than expected. Weekly housing inventory. Weekly inventory change: (Dec.
Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise. Not only has that not happened, but in the last two weeks, with mortgage rates pushing even higher, active inventory only grew by 2,286 single-family homes.
The housing inventory shortage dominated much of the conversation surrounding the housing market in 2022, but thanks to softening homebuyer demand, the number of active listings finished the year up 54.7% Despite this sizable yearly increase, active housing inventory was down 33.4% from December 2021.
Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. Last year, the weekly seasonal inventory bottom was set on March 4; we still need to confirm the weekly bottom in 2023.
The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast.
Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.
in October — and since we are days away from December, we can officially label the 2021 housing crash bears as even worse than the 2020 housing crash bears. As we can see below, housing moderated, found a base and moved higher toward the second half of 2021. So far, 2020 and 2021 have come in as a noticeable beat in my eyes.
The housing market experienced more volatility last week, with housing inventory dropping as mortgage rates moved higher. Weekly housing inventory continues to decline, as we saw a decrease of 13,238 units, double the amount we had this time last year. So, when I saw the slight inventory increase, I thought this was a good trend.
Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year. 9, 2022, and today you can see the final result of that dynamic shift as inventory is now negative versus the 2022 data — all before July 4th.
Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and new listing data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.
“Despite higher mortgage rates in November and persistent affordability challengers, buyers took advantage of more inventory as pending home sales reached the highest level in nearly two years. Buyers appear to be done waiting for rates to fall, prompting them to enter the market to take advantage of higher inventory levels.
They say everything is bigger in Texas — and apparently that includes housing inventory growth. Houston inventory was up 42.5% But the housing market in Austin has been cooling since the flurry of activity in 2021 and 2022, whereas the other major metros in Texas have been more stable. compared to the same period last year. .
That puts the national inventory up 31.9% Inventories shrank universally nationwide through the second quarter of 2021 and began to recover through the second quarter of 2023, but so far in 2024, Texas and Florida have dominated listings growth. year-over-year, extending a 24-week streak of year-over-year increases.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. million in October 2021). NAR lists the current inventory at 1.22 million in October.
The report noted that “housing inventory in exurbs grew by an average of 15% over the past 10 years, outpacing suburbs at 14% and principal cities at 10%. 1 market in the country for inventory growth was Vineyard, Utah. This demand has spurred significant increases in housing inventory to accommodate the growing population.“
In contrast, during the pandemic, the median-price peak jumped from $279,000 in 2019 to $319,000 in 2021 before falling to $310,000 in 2022. In order to alleviate some of the pressure on buyers, agents like JD Gieson would love to see more inventory come on the market. There is no inventory, McCormick said. As of Jan.
That marks the first month since July 2019 (pre-pandemic) that housing inventory increased year over year. The home-inventory bump dovetails with other data indicating the nation’s housing market lost some steam this past month, according to a June housing-market report from Seattle-based Redfin. percentage points from June 2021.
Summer is here, and housing inventory is finally growing! The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly.
With mortgage rates briefly topping 8% and home prices breaking records throughout the year, many would-be sellers simply decided not to bother listing their homes, exacerbating already tight inventories. This squeezed inventory even further throughout 2022 and 2023, pushing home prices to record highs month after month.
The Single-Family Rental (SFR) inventory and days-on-market continue to climb gradually, according to HouseCanary, Inc. ‘s As a result, and in line with earlier data, the steady increase in days-on-market and inventory levels, along with the continued demand for rentals as an alternative to house ownership, led to a minor 2.3%
Despite mortgage rates briefly falling below the 6% threshold, both housing inventory and mortgage demand fell last week. Weekly Housing Inventory A few weeks ago, I was encouraged that we had a slight increase in inventory and a small decline the following week. This week inventory fell 8,664 units from the previous week.
These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. Active inventory fell 1,109, and new listing data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%. million.
It boils down to two factors, according to housing-industry experts: a lack of housing inventory , or supply; and high demand for that limited housing stock — which also is fueling a jump in new-home sales. trillion in mortgage originations in 2021. In other words, if there were more inventory, we would have more sales happening.”
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