Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2020

months, builders will halt the rate of growth for new construction plans as they did in 2018 and again for a brief period this year. For now, though, the low inventory means housing starts have legs to move higher. months, the builders are ok with construction as long as new home sales grow. If supply goes over 6.5

Inventory 545

Inventory Construction Government Housing Market 545

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

Construction 514

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 514

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005. First, total home sales should be 6.2

Mortgage 505

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2021

” Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae , said anecdotal reports of builders delaying or turning down orders to clear a growing construction backlog appears to be borne out by the recent housing starts data. With lumber prices recently pulling back, we expect some near-term strength in construction. million and 1.92

Housing Market 511

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Construction 511

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

Pieklo spent 14 years at the lender before leaving in 2018. It also has a niche in construction and manufactured home loan programs. Corey Dubnoff, who founded AFR in 1997, will remain as chief administrative officer, and Tim Yanoti will stay on as chief financial officer.

Lending 457

Lending Renovations Construction Finance 457

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

We don’t need to be concerned about the moderation in the new home sales data because inventory is still low. ” I’m sure you’ve heard the thesis that low inventory suppresses sales. Home sales have gotten to pre-cycle highs with the inventory at pre-cycle lows. Builder confidence is primarily based on inventory.

Inventory 531

Inventory Construction Housing Market Design 531

Housing Wire

MARCH 25, 2021

Many economists speculate rising rates will be the key to quelling construction woes, even if it does eventually take a slight toll on demand. At the current rate, unsold inventory sits at a mere 2 month supply, and it’s even lower than that in some of the country’s hottest housing market. That’s a full 5% drop.

Mortgage 543

Mortgage Construction Realtors Inventory 543

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

Only then would we see enough demand from the new home sales market to warrant that much construction. Higher levels of Inventory in the range of 4.4 If inventory breaks over 6.5 months, then the market has issues, and builders will likely stall on construction. I said that housing starts would never start a year at 1.5

Housing Market 538

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 538

Housing Wire

AUGUST 18, 2020

The Census report on new construction showed a whopping 22.6% Back in 2018, when builder confidence took a dive, new homes sales were falling and the monthly supply spiked. We spent parts of 2019 whittling down the excess inventory. increase above the revised June estimate in housing starts in July.

Housing Market 546

Housing Market Marketing Construction Inventory 546

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

Meanwhile, builders are faced with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers, she added. With the lack of existing-home inventory, the new construction buyer mix also shifted. Insurance cost and availability are also growing concerns for the housing sector. consumer inflation reading.

Construction 493

Construction Buyers Housing Market Insurance 493

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. Back then, we had higher sales, higher inventory, and less price growth, but we had a massive credit bubble.

Inventory 540

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 540

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse. months of supply but of that number, 6.22

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 15, 2021

Economists at Fannie Mae expect an increase mortgage rates and home prices in 2022 due to higher inflation , a tightening of monetary policy, and low home inventory. Despite new single-family home construction being in high demand, supply has been hindered by the low availability of materials and skilled labor. in 2022, up from 3.1%

Mortgage 508

Mortgage Inventory Construction Marketing 508

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months are completed homes.

Inventory 488

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

million, falling somewhere between their March 2022 high (12 million) and their relative pre-pandemic November 2018 high (7.6 In October, construction employment continued to trend up, adding 23,000 more jobs, aligning with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Job openings also kept steady in September at 9.6

Marketing 434

Marketing Construction Housing Market Government 434

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2022

In November 2021, the supply of homes for sale nationwide as a percentage of occupied residential inventory remained near historic lows at 1.19% — meaning only 119 in every 10,000 homes were for sale — much lower than the historical average of 2.5%. Since 2018, the housing supply deficit has been growing. What about existing homes?

Supply Chain 511

Supply Chain Housing Market Construction Inventory 511

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 3, 2020

In 2018, Forbes ranked the city No. months worth of housing inventory, which is the lowest ever, the report from Keller Williams said. New construction continues to take more and more of our market,” Dopp said. New construction used to be maybe 15-20% of the market, trending toward 40% of the market now.

Marketing 534

Marketing Realty Realtors Housing Market 534

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. A good example was 2018. From Census: The seasonally?adjusted

Construction 435

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 435

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 24, 2021

months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. However, we are not that far from me raising a red flag on the new home sector as I did in 2018. This is also why I still will never believe in a construction boom premise here in America. When supply is 6.5 Currently, the headline number is at 6.3

Construction 511

Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 511

Housing Wire

JANUARY 14, 2025

.” Nikol Solares Solares brings 20 years of experience in luxury development, new construction sales and marketing to her new role. Solares joins Compass from her most recent role as senior vice president of sales at Douglas Elliman , where she oversaw $2 billion in high-end inventory.

Brokerage 370

Brokerage Luxury Properties Realty Development 370

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Now on to the report. When supply is 4.4-6.4 When supply is 6.5

Construction 516

Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 516

Housing Wire

APRIL 19, 2022

Census Bureau released their report for March, showing a solid number of housing permits and starts — but these were boosted by multifamily construction. At the same time, I welcome the higher mortgage rate story to create balance in the existing home sales market, which is still showing negative year-over-year inventory data.

Mortgage 459

Mortgage Housing Market Construction Marketing 459

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. Higher rates are a must because the way we were heading, we would have easily had 40% home price growth in 3 years with inventory looking to start a fresh new all-time low in 2023. We started the year out at all-time lows and it got worse as the year went on.

Housing Market 476

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 476

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2021

months and total inventory are collapsing again and we might see new fresh all-time lows before the spring of 2022. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally?adjusted The monthly supply of existing homes at 2.1 When supply is 6.5

Inventory 493

Inventory Marketing Construction Mortgage 493

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

As we can see below, the new home sales report just took us back almost to the 2018 levels — the last time when rates rose toward 5% and created a supply shock. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. My biggest thing is getting total inventory back to 2018-2019 levels, which can range from 1.52-1.93

Housing Market 418

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 418

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

It was more noticeable than what we saw in 2018. months, builders pull back, and new construction stalls. We saw this in 2018 and then spent the entire year of 2019 selling off the excess inventory. This level of inventory means new home sales are doing ok, not great. Mortgage rates followed, which dampened demand.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Design 545

Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2022

We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. In 2018, sales trends fell from 5.72 The builders would love rates to get back to these levels so they can be sure to sell some of the homes they’re finishing up on the construction side. Also, we have to know that we aren’t working from a high level of inventory data as well.

Mortgage 514

Mortgage Inventory Sellers Housing Market 514

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 5, 2024

Census Bureau over a five-year period shows that prices for manufactured homes have risen by nearly 60% as the nation continues to contend with a housing affordability crisis that stems in part from a shortage of sufficient inventory. increased by 58.34% between 2018 and 2023.

Land Lease 418

Land Lease Renovations Modernization Design 418

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

Some historical references: The last two times rates rose, this is what we saw — 2013/2014 negative — 20% year over year trend 2018 purchase application data was flat to slightly positive all year long; we only had three mild negative years over year prints when rates headed to 5%. This data line is trend survey data.

Inventory 370

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Construction 370

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

We are, for now, bouncing off the bottom that we had back in 2018, which was historically low as well. From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 When supply is 4.3

Construction 488

Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

A few months ago, I was asked to go on CNBC and talk about why I call this a housing recession and why this year reminds me a lot of 2018, but much worse on the four items above. This now goes into a subject matter that is a striking difference between 2022 versus 2008: Inventory and Credit. Housing inventory.

Housing Market 546

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 546

Housing Wire

APRIL 21, 2022

A former Texas A&M cross country and track athlete and Episcopalian minister, Ballard in 2011 co-founded TreeHouse , a retailer to sell environmentally friendly home construction materials. But the company was out of business by 2018. There is something endearing in the 3-D printed wall’s construction.

Construction 418

Construction Supply Chain Investors Business 418

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Even though multifamily construction has boosted housing starts recently, the slowdown in single-family purchases hasn’t been anything too dramatic yet. They were simply doing what the marketplace allowed them to do with low inventory and low mortgage rates. From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally?adjusted

Construction 370

Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 370

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 22, 2024

That’s a factor too of higher inventory.” of existing supply, with another 38,000 of apartment units under construction (12.2% We believe rates (including financing rates) staying higher for longer will delay any rebound in construction activity in the near term,” he wrote.

Marketing 370

Marketing Housing Market Property Taxes Construction 370

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. The builders are in a better position to manage their inventory glut than when they were working from a credit boom in 2005 that took new home sales up to 1.4

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Real Estate 370

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 28, 2021

In November 2018, the deadliest fire in the history of California nearly destroyed Paradise, a 144-year-old town that sits in the Sierra Foothills above the northeastern Sacramento Valley. . We have had over 200 lots active on the market at one time since 2019, so we are a little low on inventory.”.

Insurance 397

Insurance Realty Agents Construction 397

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

As you can see below, the uptrend has been intact even with the slowdown in 2018 and the brief pause from COVID-19. The last time this sector saw some stress from mortgage rates was in 2018 when rates were at 5%. Housing inventory has been falling since 2014 and mortgage purchase applications have been rising since then.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 544