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24): Inventory fell from 569,898 to 565,875 The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497 The inventory peak for 2024 so far is 739,434 For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,104,310 Newlistings data While active inventory didn’t rise, we did get a nice boost in newlistings this last week.
One of my critical forecasts for 2024 was the growth of newlistings data and active inventory, even with higher mortgage rates. However, the newlistings data has slightly disappointed me. Newlistings data I am pleased that we’ve seen newlistings data grow year over year — it’s a big step forward.
The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly newlisting data is key. Newlisting data is growing year over year, but it will be the second-lowest newlisting data ever recorded in history. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls, and the price-cut percentage grows.
NewlistingsNewlistings also dipped for the second week in a row. Theres probably some weather effects in there, and I expect to see a jump in the newlistings volume in next weeks data. There were just over 53,000 newlistings unsold, plus another 10,000 newlistings immediate sales.
Remember that 2023 had the lowest newlistings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. One of the reasons total inventory data hasn’t gotten back to 2019 levels is the lack of sellers in 2023 and 2024. National data: Weekly inventory change (Oct. 11): Inventory fell from 734,290 to 732,410 The same week last year (Oct.
Additionally, our weekly pending contract data and newlistings are trending positively compared to last year. Last year, I estimated that a minimum of 80,000 homes would be listed every week during the peak seasonal months, and my prediction was only off by 5,000.
For example, from 2015 to late 2019, inventory levels remained above 7,000 for single-family homes. Newlistings remain low as owners lock in Altos’s data for newlistings accounts for single-family homes that come to market without an immediate or pending contract. Whats the reason for this? housing market.
New Redfin data reported the largest gain since the end of last year occurred in the four weeks ending February 2, when newlistings of homes for sale in the U.S.increased 7.9% A larger pool of options is becoming available to homebuyers as a result of the increase in newlistings and the decline in sales.
Since the buyer’s commission payout isn’t as transparent as before, I have been anticipating delays in the home-buying process as people adapted to the new rules. 2024 is the second-lowest newlisting year recorded in history, but we still saw growth from last year, which is a positive. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, newlistings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, newlistings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. That’s a swing of 17% fewer sellers in just a matter of days.
Here is the price cut percentage data for the same week in other years: 2023 38% 2022 42% 2021 27% As you can see, affordability is an issue, and the price cut percentage is higher now than in any period from 2015-2021, but still below 2022 levels. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data. the seasonal peak this year was on Nov.
The seasonal decline period is starting soon, so we should get accustomed to seeing a decline in newlisting data as the year heads toward its end. It is a bit shocking to me that newlistings this week are lower than even last year: This is the lowest newlisting week ever recorded.
As most sellers are buyers, seeing more sellerslisting their homes has been good. The only thing about 2024 was that I was 100% sure we would see a seasonal peak print at a minimum of 80,000 and it’s starting to look more and more like it won’t happen this year as the seasonal decline in newlistings isn’t far away.
Since I believe most home sellers are also homebuyers, once newlistings created a new low level after mortgage rates reached over 6% in 2022, it added another layer of home demand falling off a cliff. What we want to see in 2024 is newlisting data growing in the spring season. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
However, one thing is sure: from 2020 to 2023 we never saw credit-stressed home sellers. While inventory levels are still too low for my taste, it’s good that we are not at 2022 levels when we only had 240,194 total active single-family listings for Americans to buy. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also newlistings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal. Weekly housing inventory data The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly.
What’s not measured in the FHFA paper is how by 2023, seller volume had already been declining for nearly a decade. By Q1 2015, more than 60% of American homeowners with mortgages had rates locked in under 5%. In that period, we can see seller volume decreasing as more and more Americans had mortgages under 5%.
Weekly housing inventory Since newlisting data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. This link explains the difference and is worth a read.
Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and newlistings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and newlistings data fell last week isn’t a big deal. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S.
The seasonal decline in newlistings will begin soon and we will see if we get fewer sellers in the second half of the year than the current trend. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year. So far the weekly high print in 2024 is only 72,329.
18): Inventory fell from 569,571 to 564,571 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,104,514 Newlistings data fell weekly but showed positive year-over-year growth. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
Remember that even though we are showing growth year over year — 2023 was the lowest levels of newlistings ever recorded in history. This week, the data did dive, but it was the traditional drop we see during the Memorial Day weekend and we will have a rebound in the data line next week.
Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that newlistings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers. Here is a look at inventory last week: Weekly inventory change (Feb.
18): Inventory fell from 564,571 to 550,302 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,081,712 The one positive inventory story in 2023 is that we formed a bottom in the newlistings data! Weekly inventory change (Nov.
While I didn’t get my minimum target of 80,000 newlistings during the peak seasonal weeks this year, it was good to see growth. While I didn’t get my minimum target of 80,000 newlistings during the peak seasonal weeks this year, it was good to see growth. Weekly inventory change (July 26-Aug.
Now, context is critical; 2023 newlistings data was at the lowest levels ever and 2024 looks to be second in the book. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year. While we aren’t back to the usual trend we had between 2013 and 2019, the fact that we had growth is a plus.
So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024. 6-13): Inventory rose from 471,349 to 473,406 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 931,002 I don’t want to jinx this because active inventory rose last year at this time.
Since most sellers are buyers, this data must return to normal before seeing real, long-lasting sales growth. However, I missed my 2024 forecast of at least 80,000 newlistings per week this year during the seasonal peak months by roughly 5,000. Weekly inventory change (Sept.
Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more. I believe we should get more sellers in 2024 than in 2023, but that doesn’t necessarily mean home prices will fall. Both these years were the lowest newlisting levels before rates rose, so it’s not asking for much.
Housing inventory, newlisting data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. Newlistings data While newlistings data isn’t growing in significant terms year over year — sorry, silver tsunami crowd — it is showing growth year over year. So far, so good in 2024.
Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Total active listings grew 662 weekly, and newlisting data is still trending at all-time lows. This doesn’t appear to be the case for 2023.
The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and newlisting inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and newlisting data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023.
We saw some good growth this week, and hopefully, in 2024, we can close the gap and get back to 2021-2022 data on newlistings. That is the critical period for newlisting data to grow; remember, most sellers are buyers. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
This is what we see, and it’s much needed; we need more newlistings and not fewer. Newlistings data for last week in the last several years: 2023: 39,613 2022: 34,973 2021: 39,936 Traditionally, one-third of all homes will have price cuts before they sell. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.
Since most sellers are buyers, we need this data line to get back to the pre-COVID-19 trend range, which it hasn’t been able to do since the second half of 2022. Since most sellers are buyers, we need this data line to get back to the pre-COVID-19 trend range, which it hasn’t been able to do since the second half of 2022.
Here are the newlistings for last week over the past few years: 2024 71,181 2023: 58,289 2022: 89,221 Price-cut percentage In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year.
Newlistings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Newlistings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Never forget most sellers are buyers of homes as well, especially if the economy isn’t in a job loss recession.
Since most sellers are buyers, this data must return to normal before seeing real, long-lasting sales growth. However, I missed my 2024 forecast of at least 80,000 newlistings per week this year during the seasonal peak months by roughly 5,000. Weekly inventory change (Sept.
28-Oct 5): Inventory rose from 534,746 to 537,032 The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497 The yearly inventory peak for 2024 is 734,290 For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,169,733 Newlistings data Newlistings data has been another positive story in 2024, as we needed more sellers!
Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and newlisting data is trending at all-time lows. Newlisting data rose last week but is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The last thing the housing market needs is for newlisting data to decline, so the growth we saw last week is a plus.
Seasonal impacts are the norm with housing, and newlisting data is negative 6% year to date. We saw newlisting data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time. A traditional seller is primarily a homebuyer, so not only do we lose the inventory for sale when this happens, but we also lose a buyer. months to 3.3
The other big story with housing inventory is that newlisting data has been trending negative year over year since the end of June 2022. A traditional seller is also a traditional buyer, and certain homeowners have refused to buy their next home with mortgage rates above 6%.
However, the real positive story here is that even with newlisting data trending at an all-time low, we are getting the growth in active listings we traditionally see in the spring and summer. In addition, newlisting data turned negative year over year after the second half of 2022.
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