Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2024

Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? Now, with mortgage rates dropping below that 7.25% level recently, inventory hasn’t been able to hit that growth model once. However, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 data, as we desperately needed to get off those historically low levels of active listings.

Inventory 515

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Contracts 515

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 7, 2024

Mortgage rates have made almost a 2% move lower from the highs of 2023. Now that the jobs week data is in, the question is: can mortgage rates go even lower? Mortgage spreads Another way for mortgage rates to drop to the lowest level of the forecast or below is to improve mortgage spreads.

Mortgage 524

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 524

Housing Wire

AUGUST 4, 2024

Mortgage rates moved massively lower last week without any Federal Reserve rate cuts, primarily because the labor market is getting softer. Can mortgage rates go even lower? We don’t have that variable this year and spreads have improved earlier than I thought, which has helped mortgage pricing.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 511

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage 519

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 519

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2024

Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently. It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels.

Mortgage 511

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 511

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. However, as mortgage rates have fallen recently , I haven’t been able to hit my targets, which isn’t a surprise.

Inventory 524

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 524

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 5, 2024

18 and mortgage rates and bond yields headed higher. But, we have to remember that mortgage rates had already made an almost 2% move lower since the highs of 2023 without rate cuts, as the bond market always gets ahead of the Fed. This explains the rise in mortgage rates since the Fed cut rates.

Mortgage 499

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Retail 499

Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls, and the price-cut percentage grows.

Inventory 493

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 493

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

Inventory 452

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 452

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

Mortgage 530

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 530

Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2024

Given last week’s surprising jobs report, how much longer will we have to deal with higher mortgage rates ? It’s essential to track the labor data along with inflation because the key to getting lower mortgage rates for longer lies with the labor data more than inflation.

Mortgage 502

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 502

Housing Wire

MAY 15, 2024

This is an excerpt of a HousingWire Research report titled: What Everyone Needs to Know about Mortgage Rate Lock-in, by Altos President Mike Simonsen. housing market saw dramatic changes in affordability as mortgage rates skyrocketed 500 basis points. million in January 2021 (when mortgage rates were 2.7%) fell to 3.9

Mortgage 426

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Sellers 426

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2024

Have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates for 2024 after a crazy roller coaster ride so far this year? My 2024 forecast had a mortgage rate range of 7.25%-5.75%. To get to the lower end of this range, we needed to see two things: the labor market getting softer and the mortgage spreads improving. Yes, here’s how and why.

Mortgage 513

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 513

Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2024

Since May 29, we’ve witnessed a decline in the 10-year yield, which has been favorable for mortgage rates. 10-year yield and mortgage rates After the intense jobs week data , we ran straight into CPI and PPI inflation week, with a Fed meeting thrown in! Once mortgage rates began rising in 2024, some demand was removed.

Mortgage 491

Mortgage Inventory Marketing New Listings 491

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 535

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 535

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

Mortgage 524

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 524

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 533

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 533

Housing Wire

JUNE 22, 2024

Are we seeing the start of a market shift in mortgage demand? Notably, mortgage rates have been gradually declining, and we’ve observed back-to-back positive weeks in purchase application data for the first time since mid-March. For now, we just had back-to-back weeks of positive growth, with mortgage rates still around 7%.

Mortgage 421

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 421

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

Mortgage rates shot up last week after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, even though they didn’t raise rates. Mortgage rates did find some relief on Friday as bond yields headed lower. On housing inventory , new listings data saw a small decline last week, but active listings grew at a healthy clip.

Mortgage 461

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 461

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 26, 2024

Since mid-2022 when mortgage rates headed higher , two facts have been apparent: new listings data has been trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history and inventory has been able to grow from record low levels thanks to mortgage rates staying elevated. Let’s see what the data for last week tells us.

Inventory 511

Inventory Sellers New Listings Mortgage 511

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 541

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541

Housing Wire

JUNE 1, 2024

Mortgage rates have been a bit more volatile recently due to hawkish Federal Reserve statements and inflation data, which has impacted some of the recent movement in the 10-year yield. So, what does this all mean for the housing market and the future of mortgage rates? Once mortgage rates began rising in 2024, some demand was removed.

Mortgage 459

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 459

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data While inventory growth this week slowed to 6,803 — well below my weekly target level of 11,000 -17,000 with elevated mortgage rates — the fact that we hit this target level five times this year versus zero last year is a big reason why 2024 has been a much better year for housing than 2023.

Housing Market 473

Housing Market Mortgage Inventory Marketing 473

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. We haven’t broken either yet.

Mortgage 482

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 482

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

After mortgage rates spiked to 8% in October, causing a riot in the real estate industry, we had an epic move lower in mortgage rates last week. Does this mean we’ve hit the peak in mortgage rates for this economic cycle? When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, the percentage of homes with price cuts can grow.

Mortgage 489

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Real Estate 489

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

Mortgage 543

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 543

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Mortgage rates and the bond market have fallen a bit recently and the spreads between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have improved over last year’s levels. In the past two years, demand has always picked up whenever mortgage rates have moved lower with some duration. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates.

Mortgage 450

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 450

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

We had a crazy jobs week last week, with tons of data that the Federal Reserve was happy to see, but did those labor reports mean we’ve hit peak mortgage rates for 2023? Mortgage rates did fall, purchase application data rose and new listings data came back to trend. 18: 60,295 Aug. 25: 55,291 Sept.

Mortgage 481

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 481

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. New listings were trending at the lowest levels ever in 2023, but that should not be the case in 2024. Is the seasonal bottom going to happen later than I want?

Inventory 516

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 516

Housing Wire

JUNE 10, 2024

Mortgage rate lock-in happens because even small changes in mortgage rates can make a big difference in costs. in April 2024 — with a 10% down payment, a typical mortgage would be approximately $350,000. For every 50 basis point change in mortgage rates, the monthly payment for this house would change by $112.In

Mortgage 413

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 413

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. While new listings are still trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history, we are forming a bottom in this data.

Inventory 513

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 513

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2024

Mortgage rates headed higher last week after the CPI inflation report , but now, with news of a wider war in the Middle East, should we expect even higher rates? 10-year yield and mortgage rates There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The week ahead will answer some of those questions early on.

Inventory 468

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Retail 468

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Why are mortgage rates rising? The jobless claims data is my key 2023 economic data line for the bond market and mortgage rates because I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the four-week moving average of jobless claims gets above 323,000. Mortgage rates went from 7.39% to a high of 7.65% and ended the week at 7.44%.

Mortgage 503

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Government 503

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2023

Did the recent move lower in mortgage rates turn the housing market positive? With mortgage rates moving almost 75 basis points lower from the highs, does the data show that demand has improved? I talked about how much lower mortgage rates can go from here in this recent podcast. I failed 100% of the time so far.

Mortgage 483

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 483

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

Mortgage rates have risen recently but they could be much worse than they are today. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. The most important data line for me, along with mortgage rates , is jobless claims data because I value labor data over inflation. That hasn’t happened.

Mortgage 486

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 486

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Four weeks ago was the best week of inventory growth in 2024, as we hit my model range without higher mortgage rates : I gave it the chef’s kiss. Remember that 2023 had the lowest new listings data ever and 2024 will have the second lowest. National data: Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 481

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 481

Housing Wire

AUGUST 24, 2024

Since the buyer’s commission payout isn’t as transparent as before, I have been anticipating delays in the home-buying process as people adapted to the new rules. Weekly housing inventory data As mortgage rates have dropped recently, inventory growth has slowed below my weekly target level of 11,000-17,000.

Inventory 437

Inventory New Listings Sellers Mortgage 437