Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. I went over the reasons for this in the Housing Wire Daily podcast in February.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. Since 2020, the seasonal inventory bump has happened later than usual — not until March or April.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 525

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 6,722 weekly. First, it took the longest time in U.S.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 523

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 501

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 539

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 513

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

This situation contrasts with the challenges the market faced in 2023, during the banking crisis when the Federal Reserve was still raising rates. However, this year, mortgage spreads are getting better, meaning that the damage from higher bond yields is getting limited compared to the market of 2023. Weekly inventory change (Jan.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 492

Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2023

The housing market has been wild the last few years, making weekly data more critical. This is why I’ve created the Housing Market Tracker — a weekly analysis of purchase apps, housing inventory and mortgage rates that will be published every Monday. Weekly housing inventory. Purchase application data.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 482

Housing Wire

JUNE 4, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and new listing data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 468

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

What’s going on with housing inventory ? In reality, the volatility in housing inventory is due to the Labor Day holiday, the start of school and the fact that new listings are trending at the lowest levels ever. Weekly housing inventory Some of the volatility with new listings data has also hit the active listings data.

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. Inventory is incredibly tight.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

MARCH 8, 2025

Does this indicate that the housing market is beginning to wake up just in time for spring? It kicked off the week around 4.24%, took a dip to about 4.11% amid a whirlwind of market and economic drama, and then made a sharp turnaround. Weekly inventory change (Feb. The 10-year yield took us on quite the rollercoaster ride.

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Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 451

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Weekly housing inventory data Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. 2022: 18.7%

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 514

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year. We have often discussed that the housing market dynamics changed starting Nov. In March of 2022 we had the lowest inventory levels ever recorded in history.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 482

Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Each time, inventory has squared right into the model as long as rates stay elevated.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 521

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. The Federal Reserve wanted to see the bidding wars end and the days on the market grow.

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Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 493

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

However, last week saw a decline in mortgage rates due to softer economic data, which led to an influx of money into the bond market as stocks sold off on Friday. Since 2022, whenever mortgage rates have approached 6% it’s because the bond market is concerned about the economy slowing down. Weekly inventory change (Feb.

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Government Mortgage Inventory New Listings 468

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Have we seen the peak in housing inventory for 2024? The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. Weekly inventory change (Aug. Weekly inventory change (Aug.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 538

Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2024

We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housing inventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. have higher inventory than the national data.

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Inventory New Listings Contracts Mortgage 526

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Let’s delve into the weekly data to see what we can uncover.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 501

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 476

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 521

Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

Summer is here, and housing inventory is finally growing! The spring housing inventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly. million Last year at this time it was 1.15

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 435

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise. Not only has that not happened, but in the last two weeks, with mortgage rates pushing even higher, active inventory only grew by 2,286 single-family homes.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 508

Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. months for the new home sales market.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 514

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 19-26) : Inventory fell from 506,414 to 503,233 Same week last year (Jan. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. So, inventory falling looks normal.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 525

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 505

Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2024

Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? I have a simple weekly growth model with the Altos inventory data: when rates are high, over 7.25%, inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. Still, I would consider the last month of inventory growth healthy.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Contracts 518

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline? That said, I hope we extend inventory growth longer before the seasonal decline. Here are the numbers, according to Altos Research : Weekly inventory change (Sept.

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Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 518

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 537

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. 2022: 17.2% I think some people missed this.

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Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 501

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 535

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 516

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 523

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.

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Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 534

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19) : Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414 Same week last year (Jan.

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Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541