Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Housing inventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Weekly housing inventory data Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. 2022: 18.7%

Inventory 514

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 514

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023. However, I will take what I can now.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 545

Housing Wire

MAY 25, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Each time, inventory has squared right into the model as long as rates stay elevated.

Inventory 521

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Have we seen the peak in housing inventory for 2024? The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. Weekly inventory change (Aug. Weekly inventory change (Aug.

Inventory 538

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 538

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. Since 2020, the seasonal inventory bump has happened later than usual — not until March or April.

Inventory 525

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 525

Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2024

We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housing inventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. have higher inventory than the national data.

Inventory 526

Inventory New Listings Contracts Mortgage 526

Housing Wire

AUGUST 17, 2024

Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? I have a simple weekly growth model with the Altos inventory data: when rates are high, over 7.25%, inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. Still, I would consider the last month of inventory growth healthy.

Inventory 518

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Contracts 518

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Weekly pending contracts for the past week over the past several years: 2025: 288,605 2024: 297,402 2023: 283,689 Weekly housing inventory data The highlight of 2024 for me was the growth in housing inventory as we began to return to normal levels. Weekly inventory change (Jan. Weekly inventory change (Jan.

Mortgage 491

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Contracts 491

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Let’s delve into the weekly data to see what we can uncover.

Inventory 501

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 501

Housing Wire

MARCH 8, 2025

Weekly housing inventory data The best story for housing is the housing inventory growth we’ve seen since the historically low levels we saw in 2022. Last week we had slight growth week over week, and we should be starting the seasonal increase in active inventory now. Weekly inventory change (Feb.

Mortgage 437

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 437

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 19-26) : Inventory fell from 506,414 to 503,233 Same week last year (Jan. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at last week: Weekly inventory change (Jan. So, inventory falling looks normal.

Inventory 525

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 525

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 6,722 weekly. First, it took the longest time in U.S.

Inventory 523

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 523

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

The slow zombie crawl of housing inventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes.

Inventory 501

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 501

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. Looking back on 2023, the inventory story was a big surprise even as mortgage rates headed toward 8%, as the data below will show. Weekly inventory change (Dec.

Inventory 521

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline? That said, I hope we extend inventory growth longer before the seasonal decline. Here are the numbers, according to Altos Research : Weekly inventory change (Sept.

Inventory 518

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 518

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct.

Inventory 505

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Retail 505

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housing inventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Unfortunately, those higher mortgage rates didn’t spur inventory growth this week, so we didn’t even get the benefit we would usually see when rates rise. Not only has that not happened, but in the last two weeks, with mortgage rates pushing even higher, active inventory only grew by 2,286 single-family homes.

Inventory 508

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 508

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 28, 2023

31, 2022, that mortgage rates would hit 8% in 2023, you would reasonably assume housing inventory would sky rocket higher, home prices would fall noticeably, and the number of price cuts would be higher year over year. Last year, the seasonal peak for inventory was Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct. Weekly inventory change (Oct.

Inventory 516

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 516

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 537

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 537

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 539

Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

Inventory 514

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 514

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 535

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 535

Housing Wire

JANUARY 13, 2024

Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.

Inventory 534

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 534

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. With mortgage rates at the current levels, inventory is still below my expectations, but it’s still such a positive story that I had to discuss it on CNBC last week. 2022: 17.2%

Inventory 501

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 501

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. I discussed my theory on why inventory bottoms out later in the year on this HousingWire Daily podcast.

Inventory 513

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 513

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

Inventory 523

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 523

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19) : Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414 Same week last year (Jan.

Inventory 541

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 541

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal.

Inventory 493

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2023

This is why I’ve created the Housing Market Tracker — a weekly analysis of purchase apps, housing inventory and mortgage rates that will be published every Monday. The Altos Research weekly inventory data looks ahead before the sales report inventory data. Weekly housing inventory.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 482

Housing Wire

JUNE 4, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housing inventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and new listing data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.

Inventory 468

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 468

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Weekly pending contracts for the past week over the past several years: 2025: 312,742 2024: 325,054 2023: 310,134 Weekly housing inventory data The best story for housing has and will always be the housing inventory growth working from the historically low levels we saw in 2022. Last week showed mild week inventory growth.

Government 466

Government Mortgage Inventory New Listings 466

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. Last year, the weekly seasonal inventory bottom was set on March 4; we still need to confirm the weekly bottom in 2023.

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

Housing inventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year. 9, 2022, and today you can see the final result of that dynamic shift as inventory is now negative versus the 2022 data — all before July 4th.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 482

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 10, 2024

While weekly inventory is still falling, we have year-over-year growth in total active listing and new listings data. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster as demand crashed, the percentage of price cuts rose faster. Last week, inventory fell week to week but was up over this time last year.

Inventory 521

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 521

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. Total housing inventory fell in this report, the third report in a row that shows total inventory has decreased.

Inventory 493

Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 493

Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

Inventory 435

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Modernization 435