Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. So where does all that drama leave us for 2023? Mortgage rates.

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Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes. bond market doesn’t see a job-loss recession happening soon. The labor market remains healthy as long as jobless claims trend below 323,000 on the four-week moving average. If we start from Nov.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 18, 2023

This dynamic changed the housing market from one where home sales were crashing to one that is now stabilized. As you can see in the chart below, the collapse of the purchase application data has stalled out, and if this didn’t happen, we would be having a different conversation about the housing market today.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

10-year yield and mortgage rates Economic data created headline events last week that made the bond market go on a roller coaster with the GDP report, jobless claims and the Fed’s favorite inflation data, the PCE. However, for now, the labor market is getting softer, but not breaking. 2022: 19.2%

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Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

2021: 66,836 2022: 67,567 2023: 49,045 Compare our current new listing data to weekly new listing data in previous years when we had a more normal housing market: 2015: 94,470 2016: 86,608 2017: 78,886 The NAR data going back decades shows how difficult it’s been to get back to anything normal on the active listing side.

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Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

It was a wild ride for the housing market last week! Now if the economy gets weaker, meaning the labor market sees a noticeable rise in jobless claims, then the 10-year yield should break under 3.21% , going all the way to 2.72%. The market will pay more attention to that than economic data this week. million to 1.04

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2023

The housing market has been wild the last few years, making weekly data more critical. This is why I’ve created the Housing Market Tracker — a weekly analysis of purchase apps, housing inventory and mortgage rates that will be published every Monday. The 10-year yield shows where mortgage rates will go.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 9, 2023

The housing market welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. This week’s trading in the bond market will be exciting with the upcoming inflation data.

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Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2023

The rise of active listings in this spring housing market reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Can you imagine the housing market at that point?

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Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

2017 99,880 2016 88,105 2015 94,101 As you can see in the chart below, new listing data is very seasonal; we don’t have much time to get some more growth here. Even though the labor market is currently showing signs of getting softer , there is no job-loss recession yet. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. Here is a look at last year’s seasonal housing inventory increase using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2024

This is precisely what the doctor ordered for the housing market. In March of 2022, we only had 240,000 active single-family homes available for sale, leading me to call the housing market savagely unhealthy as we simply had too many people chasing too few homes. Last week, we returned close to recent lows.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

We created the weekly Housing Market Tracker because housing data has been so wild since 2020. The housing market madness persisted last week as inventory fell and higher mortgage rates took a bigger bite out of purchase application data. In a typical marketplace, the days on market are more than 30 days.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. The banking crisis has stressed the mortgage backed securities market , pushing rates higher than usual. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

We have often discussed that the housing market dynamics changed starting Nov. This is one data line I will track like a hawk because it will be a negative for the housing market if this data line makes a noticeable year-over-year decline trend in the second half of 2023.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 8, 2023

It is no secret that the housing market is suffering from an ongoing inventory drought. Existing housing inventory fell by 11,021 homes week over week for the week ending March 6, according to data from Altos Research. At the end of 2022, multifamily housing starts represented 35.1% However, an average of 94.5%

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Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 4, 2023

The 10-year yield and mortgage rates We had a keystone cops week with the bond market and mortgage rates. However, we do have some issues in the mortgage market. Getting better spreads can send mortgage rates back to the low 6% level without any help from the bond market. We’ll see how the market responds to that.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

I can’t see the 10-year yield below 3.37% unless the labor market breaks — meaning jobless claims over 323,000 on the four-week moving average. That means I can’t see mortgage rates going below 6%, especially with the spreads being bad, until the labor market or the economy gets weaker.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Real estate investors purchasing distressed properties at foreclosure auction have been telegraphing a possible housing market slowdown for the last six months. A deeper dive into foreclosure buyer behavior shows which markets are most likely to see a home price correction in the next six months. Price Correction Risk by Region.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

More importantly, it showed that the days on market dropped back to the teenager level, which means we are once again in a savagely unhealthy housing market. Nothing good is happening in housing when days on market are so low. Also, NAR updated its inventory report showing a year-over-year decline in inventory.

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Housing Wire

JULY 30, 2023

I believe the only way we get below 3.21% on the 10-year yield is for the labor market to break, and that would require jobless claims to get over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, which hasn’t happened. With the 10-year yield close to 4%, it will be a critical week for the bond market.

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Housing Wire

JULY 16, 2023

The labor market remains healthy as long as jobless claims trend below 323,000 on the four-week moving average. In a normal market, mortgage rates would easily be under 6% with the 10-year yield where it is. Weekly housing inventory We had mild inventory growth last week and new listing data is trending at the lowest levels ever.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 19, 2023

The housing market was crazy again last week. Mortgage rates fell as the banking crisis got worse and purchase application data grew for the second week in a row, but the big question is: Did we hit the seasonal bottom in housing inventory? This bond market is screaming at the Fed to cut rates.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 15, 2021

The positive performance of the HECM book of business is largely attributed to the levels of house price appreciation that the U.S. housing market has seen recently. The post 2021 MMI Report: Reverse mortgage portfolio hits positive territory for first time since 2015 appeared first on HousingWire.

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Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2023

The slow rise of housing inventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. I believe the only way we get below 3.21% on the 10-year yield is for the labor market to break, and that would require jobless claims to get over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, which hasn’t happened.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 370

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Last week was wild, and not just for the housing market. This assumes the spreads are wide as the mortgage back securities market is still very stressed. Do they even want to risk more stress in the markets? We also have two housing reports: the builder’s confidence and housing starts this week.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

On a positive note, however, the days on the market are no longer a teenager anymore: that metric grew from 18 days to 21 days. I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 10, 2023

Stubborn inflation and high interest rates continue to wreak havoc on the mortgage-origination market, but there is one asset class in the housing market that is arguably flourishing in these hard times – home equity. Our previous best year for HELOCs was 2015, and that was about $320 million,” he added.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 6, 2022

At CoreLogic, Nothaft headed the office of the economist, providing analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets. Prior to joining CoreLogic in 2015, Nothaft had a nearly 30-year career at Freddie Mac, where he was most recently the chief economist. Henry Wallich.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 9, 2023

This article is part of our 2022 – 2023 Housing Market Forecast series. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the predictions for this year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business.

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Appraisal Buzz

DECEMBER 5, 2024

The recent surge in immigration to the United States has ignited discussions about its potential effects on the housing market, particularly concerning housing costs. Senior Research Analyst Riordan Frost from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, recently took a deeper dive into the impact of immigration on the U.S.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 8, 2025

Heading into the 2025 housing market, we havent had this many homeowners with mortgage rates over 6% since 2016. The more folks with expensive loans, the greater the available inventory of homes on the market. In 2025, we expect unsold inventory of homes on the market to get very close to the 2018 levels.

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Housing Wire

MAY 3, 2021

That information is still critical this year, that’s why we’ve invited Doug Duncan , senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae , to speak at HousingWire’s virtual Engage Marketing event on June 17. At Fannie Mae, Duncan is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2024

I got one good crumb from the Fed meeting that made me smile: Powell finally admitted that the labor market isn’t tight anymore, which is a beneficial statement for rates down the line if the labor data gets weaker. Let’s delve into the details and find out. I discuss this in this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 5, 2024

Most home sellers are buyers of homes, so the action we are seeing this year is a healthy step in the right direction to get more balance in the housing market ,” Mohtashami wrote on Saturday. For context, active listings during the same time frame in 2015 were substantially higher at 958,304. Between Feb.

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. months, this is an OK market for the builders.

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