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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played the Grinch last week for the housingmarket, sending mortgage rates higher after his remarks at the Fed presser on Wednesday. Weekly pending sales The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos Research offers an exciting glimpse into the real-time dynamics of housing demand.
Housinginventory, which saw an excellent pickup a few weeks ago, has been slowing down and last week we saw a slight decline. Has seasonality finally kicked in or did back-to-back hurricanes slow things enough to influence inventory data? Since then, inventory growth has been slowing down and even declined last week.
The housingmarket in Washington D.C. Sweeping cuts by Elon Musks DOGE agency have sent many government employees packing, while other staff need to find housing in the area to comply with return-to-work mandates. Will inventory levels skyrocket as federal workers leave? housingmarket. housingmarket.
Earlier this year, when mortgage rates soared to 7.26%, a cloud of worry hung over the housingmarket many feared that home sales would tumble in 2025, fueled by concerns about inflation and tariffs. housingmarket revolves around the direction of the 10-year yield. Only time will tell because, as always for me, the U.S.
Mortgage rates recently hit a year-to-date low, coinciding with ongoing market disruptions from tariffs. The more encouraging story, however, is that the spring season is shaping up positively for the housingmarket. Witnessing a solid week of inventory growth brings a smile to my face.
Can we now say that the housingmarket ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housinginventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housinginventory data. However, I will take what I can now.
Active weekly housinginventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247.
The spring housingmarket music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. Since 2020, the seasonal inventory bump has happened later than usual — not until March or April.
The seasonal housinginventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. The answer is no!
The slow zombie crawl of housinginventory went lower last week as inventory was negative week to week. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housingmarket as we have too many people chasing too few homes. As we can see in the chart below, it’s been so slow that year-over-year inventory is now negative versus 2022.
Weekly housinginventory data Last week saw another slight decline in active listing and soon, the holidays will kick in. The seasonal decline is well underway, and it looks like the 739,434 level will be the peak of inventory for 2024. Weekly inventory change (Nov. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
The housingmarket faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housinginventory. We still aren’t back to pre-COVID-19 housinginventory levels, as shown below.
Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housinginventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. Weekly housinginventory The numbers this week are unfortunate: inventory should be growing like it does at this time every year.
The housingmarket has been wild the last few years, making weekly data more critical. This is why I’ve created the HousingMarket Tracker — a weekly analysis of purchase apps, housinginventory and mortgage rates that will be published every Monday. Weekly housinginventory.
After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 6,722 weekly. First, it took the longest time in U.S.
Housinginventory finally broke under 2022 levels last week. Since May 15, that trend has continued to the point that inventory in America is now negative year over year. We have often discussed that the housingmarket dynamics changed starting Nov.
Last week was relatively calm for the housingmarket after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. Inventory is incredibly tight.
Last week we saw a noticeable slowdown in housinginventory growth that I hope has more to do with a holiday week than a trend. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 3,180 weekly , and new listing data fell week to week and is still trending at an all-time low in 2023.
The financial and housingmarkets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housinginventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.
Does this indicate that the housingmarket is beginning to wake up just in time for spring? I’ve noticed that housing data tends to improve when mortgage rates drop from 6.64% to 6%, especially when I adjust for seasonal demand. Weekly inventory change (Feb. ” Labor over inflation, anyone?
Weekly pending contracts for the past week over the past several years: 2025: 288,605 2024: 297,402 2023: 283,689 Weekly housinginventory data The highlight of 2024 for me was the growth in housinginventory as we began to return to normal levels. Weekly inventory change (Jan. Weekly inventory change (Jan.
Summer is here, and housinginventory is finally growing! The spring housinginventory was like a zombie rising from the grave, very slow, but the summer is showing some promise and let’s hope it continues. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,886 weekly.
Despite several indicators of a slowing housingmarket, prospective home buyers should not get too excited – inventory remains limited and changes are in line with the traditional seasonal slowdown, according to RE/MAX ’s August national housing report. The report analyzes MLS data from 51 U.S. in August from July.
What’s going on with housinginventory ? In reality, the volatility in housinginventory is due to the Labor Day holiday, the start of school and the fact that new listings are trending at the lowest levels ever. According to Altos Research : Weekly inventory change : (Sept.
Now lets look at the rest of the data impacting the housingmarket. Mortgage spreads The housingmarket would be having a much different conversation today if mortgage spreads hadnt improved in 2024 and now in 2025. Last week showed mild week inventory growth. Weekly inventory change (Feb.
housingmarket and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housingmarket stayed intact and never broke. We never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing headlines in 2023. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
Going into 2023, people thought housinginventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housingmarket of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housingmarket and which factors to follow.
Have we seen the peak in housinginventory for 2024? The best part about 2024 has been that higher mortgage rates have created an inventory buffer, so if the economy gets softer and rates fall, we have many more homes to work with than we had in 2020-2023. Weekly inventory change (Aug. Weekly inventory change (Aug.
We finally have six weeks of numbers that hit my housinginventory growth model perfectly in 2024. Last year, with higher mortgage rates , we had zero weeks at this level so I am now giving 2024 inventory growth a grade of A. have higher inventory than the national data.
Given the current housinginventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. But we have a housing shortage, right? We had a few years where sales missed expectations in 2013, 2014, and 2015. So how should we look at the inventory situation?
Active housinginventory grew while new listing data fell. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,041 weekly. This dynamic changed the housingmarket from one where home sales were crashing to one that is now stabilized. The recent growth broke that streak, but demand is still low.
Housinginventory finally hit my target level of growth last week with mortgage rates now over 7.25% , something I couldn’t get all last year. Weekly housinginventory data Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. 2022: 18.7%
The 2022 housingmarket was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. HousingInventory. Home price s.
It was a wild ride for the housingmarket last week! New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Weekly housinginventory They say slow and steady wins the race; well, for housinginventory in 2023, it’s been terribly slow this spring. Purchase application data fell 4.8% million to 1.04
The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Each time, inventory has squared right into the model as long as rates stay elevated.
The rise of active listings in this spring housingmarket reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housinginventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. This link explains the difference.
The housingmarket welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and new listing data is trending at all-time lows.
The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.
Now that we are halfway through the year, we can see that active inventory in America is growing, unlike what happened in 2023. This is precisely what the doctor ordered for the housingmarket. Let’s take a half-time look at the inventory levels in America today. have higher inventory data than the national data.
Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housinginventory? I have a simple weekly growth model with the Altos inventory data: when rates are high, over 7.25%, inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. Still, I would consider the last month of inventory growth healthy.
Total housinginventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? Last year, according to Altos Research , the seasonal peak for housinginventory was Oct.
My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Let’s delve into the weekly data to see what we can uncover.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today on two trends in existing home sales that we have seen for many months now: sales are declining while total inventory data has fallen directly for the three straight months. The Federal Reserve wanted to see the bidding wars end and the days on the market grow.
The slow rise of housinginventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. However, last week was good; we had less inventory growth than I would like to see, but it’s better than the past few weeks. Mortgage rates rose again and purchase apps saw a mild decline week to week.
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