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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played the Grinch last week for the housingmarket, sending mortgage rates higher after his remarks at the Fed presser on Wednesday. Weekly pending sales The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos Research offers an exciting glimpse into the real-time dynamics of housing demand.
From this stronghold I have been able to see past the chaos and view the economy and the future of the housingmarket through the lens of my core economic principles. entered into a period of the best demographics for housing ever recorded. Here’s what I think that means for the 2021 housingmarket.
Earlier this year, when mortgage rates soared to 7.26%, a cloud of worry hung over the housingmarket many feared that home sales would tumble in 2025, fueled by concerns about inflation and tariffs. housingmarket revolves around the direction of the 10-year yield. Only time will tell because, as always for me, the U.S.
Despite several indicators of a slowing housingmarket, prospective home buyers should not get too excited – inventory remains limited and changes are in line with the traditional seasonal slowdown, according to RE/MAX ’s August national housing report. Low inventory is another indication of a still-scorching housingmarket.
The recent surge in immigration to the United States has ignited discussions about its potential effects on the housingmarket, particularly concerning housing costs. Senior Research Analyst Riordan Frost from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, recently took a deeper dive into the impact of immigration on the U.S.
Mortgage rates recently hit a year-to-date low, coinciding with ongoing market disruptions from tariffs. The more encouraging story, however, is that the spring season is shaping up positively for the housingmarket. Notably, purchase applications show growth both year-to-date and year-over-year.
Can we now say that the housingmarket ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. In 2022, home sales collapsed in a waterfall fashion.
housingmarket and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housingmarket stayed intact and never broke. This is a big Merry Christmas gift for the housingmarket. Weekly inventory change : (Dec.15-22)
The spring housingmarket music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The fear of not having an increase in inventory this spring should be put to rest. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week.
The 2022 housingmarket was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing recession. That would be a positive for demand.
This is truly a savagely unhealthy housingmarket as we have too many people chasing too few homes. Considering where we are with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, a lighter-than-expected CPI inflation print this week would be just what the housingmarket needs to bring mortgage rates lower.
It was a wild ride for the housingmarket last week! Purchase application data The housingmarket shifted significantly when mortgage rates peaked late year and started to fall. The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. million to 1.04
This dynamic changed the housingmarket from one where home sales were crashing to one that is now stabilized. As you can see in the chart below, the collapse of the purchase application data has stalled out, and if this didn’t happen, we would be having a different conversation about the housingmarket today.
2021: 66,836 2022: 67,567 2023: 49,045 Compare our current new listing data to weekly new listing data in previous years when we had a more normal housingmarket: 2015: 94,470 2016: 86,608 2017: 78,886 The NAR data going back decades shows how difficult it’s been to get back to anything normal on the active listing side.
The rise of active listings in this spring housingmarket reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Can you imagine the housingmarket at that point?
The housingmarket has been wild the last few years, making weekly data more critical. This is why I’ve created the HousingMarket Tracker — a weekly analysis of purchase apps, housing inventory and mortgage rates that will be published every Monday. The 10-year yield shows where mortgage rates will go.
The housingmarket welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. Current housing Inventory is still not suitable for a healthy housingmarket.
The positive performance of the HECM book of business is largely attributed to the levels of house price appreciation that the U.S. housingmarket has seen recently. The post 2021 MMI Report: Reverse mortgage portfolio hits positive territory for first time since 2015 appeared first on HousingWire.
2017 99,880 2016 88,105 2015 94,101 As you can see in the chart below, new listing data is very seasonal; we don’t have much time to get some more growth here. Even though the labor market is currently showing signs of getting softer , there is no job-loss recession yet. The total NAR inventory is still 980,000.
The housingmarket faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. The week ahead We have some big things happening in housingmarket data this week!
The housingmarket in Washington D.C. Sweeping cuts by Elon Musks DOGE agency have sent many government employees packing, while other staff need to find housing in the area to comply with return-to-work mandates. housingmarket. housingmarket over the next few months. housingmarket.
This is precisely what the doctor ordered for the housingmarket. In March of 2022, we only had 240,000 active single-family homes available for sale, leading me to call the housingmarket savagely unhealthy as we simply had too many people chasing too few homes.
24): Inventory fell from 569,898 to 565,875 The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497 The inventory peak for 2024 so far is 739,434 For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,104,310 New listings data While active inventory didn’t rise, we did get a nice boost in new listings this last week.
It is no secret that the housingmarket is suffering from an ongoing inventory drought. Existing housing inventory fell by 11,021 homes week over week for the week ending March 6, according to data from Altos Research. At the end of 2022, multifamily housing starts represented 35.1% However, an average of 94.5%
Last week was relatively calm for the housingmarket after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose. Purchase application data One of the most improved housingmarket data lines since Nov. Mortgage rates rose to 6.57%.
We have often discussed that the housingmarket dynamics changed starting Nov. This is one data line I will track like a hawk because it will be a negative for the housingmarket if this data line makes a noticeable year-over-year decline trend in the second half of 2023.
We created the weekly HousingMarket Tracker because housing data has been so wild since 2020. The housingmarket madness persisted last week as inventory fell and higher mortgage rates took a bigger bite out of purchase application data. Weekly inventory change (Feb. million to reach 2019 levels.
The financial and housingmarkets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.
Weekly inventory change (June 2- June 9): Inventory rose from 436,284 to 443,006 Same week last year (June 3 June 10): Inventory rose from 368,436 to 392,792 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The peak for 2023 so far is 472,680 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,182,681 The growth in housing inventory this year has been (..)
Does this indicate that the housingmarket is beginning to wake up just in time for spring? I’ve noticed that housing data tends to improve when mortgage rates drop from 6.64% to 6%, especially when I adjust for seasonal demand. ” Labor over inflation, anyone? Weekly inventory change (Feb.
Real estate investors purchasing distressed properties at foreclosure auction have been telegraphing a possible housingmarket slowdown for the last six months. A deeper dive into foreclosure buyer behavior shows which markets are most likely to see a home price correction in the next six months.
the chart below shows the clear trend, which is why tracking inventory with rates higher now will be critical to see if there is any way to stop this reality.
The new listing data for last week over the previous several years: 2025: 53,863 2024: 51,874 2023: 44,533 Price-cut percentage In an average year, about one-third of all homes typically experience a price cut, which reflects the usual dynamics of the housingmarket. Weekly inventory change (Jan.
million additional renter households and marks the second-fastest yearly pace of growth since 2015. This rate of growth is three times faster than the 0.9% increase in homeowner households, which now total 86.9 Notably, the 2.7% increase represents 1.18 The median asking rent was up 0.6%
More importantly, it showed that the days on market dropped back to the teenager level, which means we are once again in a savagely unhealthy housingmarket. Nothing good is happening in housing when days on market are so low. Also, NAR updated its inventory report showing a year-over-year decline in inventory.
Now lets look at the rest of the data impacting the housingmarket. Mortgage spreads The housingmarket would be having a much different conversation today if mortgage spreads hadnt improved in 2024 and now in 2025. As you can see in the chart below, we are 36 basis points lower than the peak of what we saw on Jan.
The week ahead: Housing report s The week ahead has a host of housing reports: the builder’s confidence index, housing starts, and the existing home sales report will give us a dose of what is happening with the national housingmarket.
With the 10-year yield close to 4%, it will be a critical week for the bond market. If the labor data shows wage growth cooling down and being less tight, that can be very helpful for the bond market to head lower and drive down mortgage rates.
The housingmarket was crazy again last week. Mortgage rates fell as the banking crisis got worse and purchase application data grew for the second week in a row, but the big question is: Did we hit the seasonal bottom in housing inventory? However, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or have a Ph.D.
housingmarket.” Stowell has held various roles at Standard Pacific Homes from 1986-2015, advancing through the company to serve as CEO beginning in 2012. in 2015, the result of the merger of Standard Pacific Homes and the Ryland Group, Stowell served as the Executive Chairman of CalAtlantic Group Inc.
Last week was wild, and not just for the housingmarket. Weekly inventory change (March 3 – March 10): Fell from 418,736 to 412,535 Same week last year: (March 4 – March 11): Rose from 240,194 to 247,320 To give you some perspective, active listings during this week in 2015 were 960,231, rising steadily from earlier.
Weekly inventory change (July 14-July 21): Inventory rose from 470,458 to 479,273 Same week last year (July 15-July 22): Inventory rose from 508,633 to 525,548 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 479,273 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,202,909 As you can see below, the slope of the (..)
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