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Lower mortgage rates are spurring housing demand

Housing Wire

Additionally, our weekly pending contract data and new listings are trending positively compared to last year. Without the recent tariff developments, the 10-year yield would not have dipped below 4% or approached my low forecast of 3.80% in 2025. Notably, purchase applications show growth both year-to-date and year-over-year.

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New listings data falls for third week in a row 

Housing Wire

New listings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. But, we need to see more growth in new listings data just to grow from 2023 levels. 2023 new listings data was the lowest ever on record, so it’s already a low bar.

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Better mortgage spreads are capping rates in 2025

Housing Wire

The last two years were the two lowest new listings data years in history. However, the slowdown in price growth is a positive development for the housing market, which desperately needs it. Weekly inventory change (Jan. 31-Feb 7): Inventory fell from 634,979 to 632,367 The same week last year (Feb.

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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, new listings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, new listings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. By Q1 2015, more than 60% of American homeowners with mortgages had rates locked in under 5%.

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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

Researchers developed a framework for estimating the number of home sales in 2024 based on the current levels for mortgage rates. By Q1 2015, more than 60% of American homeowners with mortgages had rates locked in under 5%. We see the same pattern in the new listings rate each week.

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Is mortgage demand really picking up?

Housing Wire

Let’s dig into the data to understand these developments better. Now, context is critical; 2023 new listings data was at the lowest levels ever and 2024 looks to be second in the book. While we aren’t back to the usual trend we had between 2013 and 2019, the fact that we had growth is a plus.

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Are mortgage rates about to fall?

Housing Wire

Here’s the new listings data for last week over the last several years: 2024: 68,843 2023: 61,911 2022: 73,107 Price-cut percentage In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. This is a significant shift, considering 2023 marked the lowest level ever recorded.

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