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The seasonal decline period is starting soon, so we should get accustomed to seeing a decline in newlisting data as the year heads toward its end. It is a bit shocking to me that newlistings this week are lower than even last year: This is the lowest newlisting week ever recorded.
Here’s the newlistings data for last week over the last several years: 2024: 68,843 2023: 61,911 2022: 73,107 Price-cut percentage In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. This is a significant shift, considering 2023 marked the lowest level ever recorded.
If spreads had remained as unfavorable as last year, we would likely see fewer housing permits and starts, and we might have faced a loss of residential construction jobs in certain parts of the U.S. Despite the recent increase in the 10-year yield, mortgage rates have performed better than in the past because the spreads have not worsened.
Active housing inventory grew while newlisting data fell. Newlistings data is another big story with housing inventory. Since the second half of 2022, it has been trending at all-time lows This trend has continued all year long, so we have limited new housing to work with.
In the previous expansion, starting in 2015, I had the same bond forecast every year of 1.60%-3% on the 10-year yield, which roughly means mortgage rates in the 3.50%-4.75% range. However, weeks after that call, the newlisting data started to decline noticeably, which makes that call much harder to happen in 2023. We are at 8.6
The number of newlistings for all home types – single-family, townhomes and condos combined – in King (887) fell 47% from November and declined 36% from December 2021. The construction crane was recently removed from the 8 th Avenue and Columbia Street location and interiors are being filled out with high-quality finishes.
Others are specializing in the design and construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs) as detached backyard homes (also known as “ mother-in-laws ”). The national trend for newconstruction, however, is generally moving in the opposite direction. In the 1990s, one-third of new homes were smaller than 1800 sq.
>> And in a different metric, Seattle-area home prices have risen 55% from December 2015 to the start of this year, according to Case-Shiller, a home-price index from S&P CoreLogic. >> Through February, the number of existing home listings across the U.S. million new homes as of the start of this year.
Census data, the median square footage of new single-family units peaked in 2015 at 2466 square feet and dropped to 2177 in 2023. And, there are clear indications this is the new normal for decades to come. new homes will be built per year in 2025-2035 and drop to about 800K units a year in 2035-2045, levels well below the 1.8M
Builders are trying to catch up and, according to federal officials , there are more housing units under construction today than at any time in the last 50 years. An annual survey released this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said renters put the probability of ever owning a home at 40%, down from 44% last year.
Mortgage spreads If mortgage spreads did not improve in 2024, we would have already lost some construction workers due to rising rates. It’s important to remember that most sellers are also buyers and the last two years presented the lowest newlistings data in history. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
The wild card here is that housing starts and permits are already at recessionary levels and higher rates can impact construction workers, which has other effects, as I discussed here. Here are the newlistings for last week. Mortgage spreads Mortgage rates are currently elevated, which is not ideal for the housing market.
Mortgage spreads To make this simple, if mortgage spreads didnt improve from the worst levels of the spreads we saw in 2023, most likely, we would already be losing construction workers and home sales would not have had the recent bounce in sales from record low levels. Weekly inventory change (Jan. Weekly inventory change (Jan.
Weekly housing inventory data Two weeks ago, housing inventory fell a bit more than I anticipated and so did the newlistings data. I assumed that maybe the election held some people back from listing their homes. Even so, it’s nice to see this data line continue to show growth year over year. Weekly inventory change (Nov.
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