Remove 2014 Remove New Listings Remove Sellers
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree. The last time total inventory grew was in 2014 because we had weak demand. Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.). Now fast forward to 2022.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. With the massive housing inflation since 2020 and higher mortgage rates, we are back to familiar territory with existing home sales and purchase application data: we are back to 2014 levels.

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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

Mortgage 525
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Is housing inventory growth really slowing down?

Housing Wire

One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in new listings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. Redfin : Realtor.com : Altos Research : Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in new listings as the data has been negative now for months. What does this mean?

Inventory 526
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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, new listings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, new listings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. That’s a swing of 17% fewer sellers in just a matter of days.

Mortgage 459
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Spring forecast: More inventory and rising home sales

Housing Wire

At the same time, seller volume dried up. But now sellers are coming back into the market. New listing volume last week was 18% more than a year ago. NAR reported 33% all cash buyers, which is the most since 2014 when buyers were still cleaning up distressed properties. More sellers means more sales in 2024.

Inventory 488
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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

What’s not measured in the FHFA paper is how by 2023, seller volume had already been declining for nearly a decade. In that period, we can see seller volume decreasing as more and more Americans had mortgages under 5%. We see the same pattern in the new listings rate each week.

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