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There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree. The last time total inventory grew was in 2014 because we had weak demand. Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.). Now fast forward to 2022.
But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. With the massive housing inflation since 2020 and higher mortgage rates, we are back to familiar territory with existing home sales and purchase application data: we are back to 2014 levels.
Typically we have a natural set of newlistings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the newlisting data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused newlisting data to stall at first.
One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in newlistings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. Redfin : Realtor.com : Altos Research : Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in newlistings as the data has been negative now for months. What does this mean?
After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, newlistings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, newlistings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. That’s a swing of 17% fewer sellers in just a matter of days.
At the same time, seller volume dried up. But now sellers are coming back into the market. Newlisting volume last week was 18% more than a year ago. NAR reported 33% all cash buyers, which is the most since 2014 when buyers were still cleaning up distressed properties. More sellers means more sales in 2024.
What’s not measured in the FHFA paper is how by 2023, seller volume had already been declining for nearly a decade. In that period, we can see seller volume decreasing as more and more Americans had mortgages under 5%. We see the same pattern in the newlistings rate each week.
People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. They have to move as well, so a traditional seller is a buyer most of the time when it’s a primary resident owner. We see some of this in the active listing data as newlistings are declining.
trillion in June 2014. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s Economics Research Lead, predicts that the market will likely surpass $50 trillion within the next 12 months due to a lack of newlistings keeping prices elevated. In a decade, the value of U.S. homes has more than doubled, rising nearly 120% from $22.7
Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. NAR Total Listing Data: If we cut the timeline to the last time inventory grew, which was 2014, you can see this downtrend in inventory, unlike 2001-2005, when inventory grew from 2 million to 2.5 I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5
However, a significant portion of the decrease is also linked to the persistently low inventory levels due to a lack of sellers. You’ll see that 2023 was the lowest number of home sales since 2014 and that sales have made significant declines over the past two years. Will the 2024 Real Estate Market Improve?
To get a real price crash, we would need to see a surge of housing inventory and distressed sellers. Where I disagree with Yun is this: We have more inventory because demand has been softer, and we have more newlistings this year compared to last. from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September.
November newlistings fell by about half of the previous month’s rate while home prices saw a welcome decline. The number of newlistings tumbled 48% from October and was down 2.7% Fewer listings will likely lead to quieter sales activity in the coming months. The seasonal slowdown is in full swing now.
The first is that sales could be slowing down while newlistings continue to enter the market. The net effect would be an increase in the listing count. The second reason could be that sales are continuing at a normal rate and there is an abnormal spike in newlistings. The trend ins Shelby county is similar.
To read the listing, plus a video tour and 22 photos, Click Here An open letter to overpriced sellers And some fun memes ;> June 12, 2024 By Ryan Lundquist Excerpts: Yes, the above top image is a Xena Warrior Princess meme. We are seeing more newlistings across the country, and it’s something we’re also seeing locally.
between 2014 and 2023 on a typical new-built home, the Census reported. increase to $1.1M, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (chart). Buyers and sellers across King County may answer with an Oh, yeah! by looking at Januarys Northwest Multiple Listing Service report. That was led by King Countys 9.5%
“Greater participation of sellers and builders in the months ahead will make home sales possible while easing some of the pressure on price growth, which is currently rising at a double-digit percent rate and has been for almost six months.” ” Home prices soared 9.5%
SETTLEMENT FOLLOW-UP A judge has preliminarily approved the $418M antitrust class-action settlement involving sellers’ compensation to brokers/agents in residential real estate sales. News of the settlement and its impact topped last month’s newsletter. home sales in 2023, the highest level since 2014.
48% own homes, reflecting a steady rise since 2014. The market recalibration continues across King County with a sharp drop in newlistings, Pending sales and closings while prices decline. The number of new homes for sale fell 19% (4009) across the county from June to July and 9.5% The other Washington, as in D.C.,
Sidenote: Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which typically have lower interest rates than fixed-rate mortgages, have become an attractive option for new buyers financing a home. The spread between a 30-year and ARMs – in which rates can be adjusted typically after 5 or 7 years – is the widest since 2014. Some believe it can’t.
I am often asked by sellers what home projects should they address to get the highest return on investment. Since 2014, prices have risen across the board for all the projects ranked in the report, but this year has seen a spike in prices. On to newlistings, and we start far away. Sellers are asking $2.9M ($1590/sq.
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