Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? If you follow the trend of housing supply since 2014, it’s been falling every year — with a pause in 2018-2019 — and then collapsed lower post-2020. I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

The housing market experienced more volatility last week, with housing inventory dropping as mortgage rates moved higher. Weekly housing inventory continues to decline, as we saw a decrease of 13,238 units, double the amount we had this time last year. So, when I saw the slight inventory increase, I thought this was a good trend.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

Given the current housing inventory crisis, it might surprise people to realize this: we built too many homes during the housing bubble years. Yes, but this is where my work is much different from other housing economists and why we need to think of inventory in a new, modern 21st-century mindset. Wait, what?

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Housing Wire

JUNE 8, 2022

2012: What they said: Shadow inventory will cause prices to fall. The reality: Inventory broke down in 2012, and the monthly supply data got below 6.0 The “shadow inventory” was not an issue as it took years to get rid of the distressed supply from the housing bubble years. million of inventory is normal.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. What levels should we be hoping for? Then this happened. Ghost Supply 2.2

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2020

For now, though, the low inventory means housing starts have legs to move higher. Existing home inventory is also at all-time lows. Existing home inventory is also at all-time lows. Unsold inventory sits at an all-time-low 2.5-month In 2013/2014, when the economic data was improving, mortgage rates rose.

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Housing Wire

JULY 20, 2022

But, there is one bright spot — inventory is rising. This has been a concern of mine after the summer of 2020 as inventory levels were breaking all-time lows, facilitating unhealthy home price growth during a more prominent demographic patch in U.S. The one positive: Inventory is rising. Once total inventory levels reach 1.52-1.93

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Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

The home-price growth from 2020 through 2022 has been so unhealthy that I’ve labeled this a savagely unhealthy housing market as inventory has once again collapsed on a year-over-year basis in 2022. Inventory is still showing negative year-over-year data. The last time this data line was fragile was back in 2013-2014.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. In 2013-2014, rates rose, and you see the lower trend in sales back then. 2014 was the last year total inventory grew. million and 6.16

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much. They’re mindful of higher rates because in 2013, 2014 and 2015 they had to deal with a miss in sales expectations. First, total home sales should be 6.2

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Inventory, which has been falling for years, broke to all-time lows in 2020. We didn’t have a seasonal push in inventory in 2020, and things worsened in 2021. Of course, this has brought back some inventory, as demand weakness always creates inventory through accumulation. million active listings, but at just 1.28

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Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month However, negative year-over-year inventory is not what we want to see.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

However, Khater noted the homebuying surge has created a seller’s market, where inventory is at a record low and home prices are rising, beginning to offset the benefits of the low rates. census divisions rose 7% in September from a year ago, the greatest year-over-year gain since 2014.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 30, 2020

Realtors cited a combination of high demand and low inventory, which are making conditions more competitive and exerting upward pressure on prices. Pending home sales looks specifically at contracts that have been signed but where the transaction has not closed on sales of already existing inventory. Presented by: Fannie Mae.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2021

Record low inventory and strong buyer demand once again pushed up the cost of homes in the U.S., November’s numbers mark the greatest annual growth rate since February 2014 and even blew past the 8.4% as prices in November rose 9.5% nationally over the same time last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 24, 2020

census divisions rose 7% in September from a year ago, the greatest year-over-year gain since 2014, and nearly 23% higher than its last peak in 2006. uptick reported in August, and represented the largest annual gain since May 2014 as record-low mortgage rates and a lack of inventory continued to put upward pressure on home prices.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 9, 2023

history, and because of that, not even low inventory could prevent home prices from declining month to month in the second half of 2022. Now we can talk about the final stage: inventory in the U.S. Housing inventory The No. How would new listing data trending at all-time lows impact the active inventory in 2023?

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

The last time we had a consistent downtrend in existing home sales was back in 2013-2014. During that same period, the MBA purchase application data were down 20% year over year on-trend in 2014. We saw this in 2018 and then spent the entire year of 2019 selling off the excess inventory. Keep this scenario in mind for 2021.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 26, 2022

The three categories I’ll cover will be the weekly purchase application data, the Altos Research weekly inventory data , and what the bond market/ mortgage rates did recently. Housing market inventory. Altos Research data shows that the weekly inventory fell from 521,957 to 507,934 last week.

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Housing Wire

JULY 10, 2024

3 above), for example rising inventory and long days-on-market, I get discouraged about my ability to sell. And in fact, inventory of unsold homes in the country is up 40% over last year. As homeowners with high mortgage rates are more likely to sell their homes, rising rates leads to rising inventory. 2 above) themselves.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. Back then, we had higher sales, higher inventory, and less price growth, but we had a massive credit bubble.

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Eyes on Housing

JANUARY 20, 2023

As elevated mortgage rates and tight inventory continue to weaken housing demand, the volume of existing home sales declined for an eleventh consecutive month as of December, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the longest run of declines since 1999.

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Housing Wire

MAY 15, 2024

Available inventory of homes to buy follows a reliable seasonal trend with the low in Q1 and the high in Q3 of each year (except for the 2020 pandemic year). We include details of inventory changes and the relationship to interest rates in the sections below. Part of the home sales slowdown in 2023 was due to a lack of inventory.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 9, 2021

last month, still hovering near levels previously seen in 2014, though it is the third month in the past four that credit availability has picked up as supply eases out. Ongoing strength in home-purchase applications and home sales continue to signal robust housing demand, even as low housing inventory remains a constraint,” Kan said.

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Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. We were told that population growth is slowing, we were told that Americans would panic sell and that massive inventory would hit the marketplace once rates got to 4%. Wait, what? I use the 1.52-1.93

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Housing Wire

MARCH 10, 2022

On top of all that, since inventory is at all-time lows, it’s been harder and harder for first-time homebuyers to win some bids because they don’t have more money to bring into the bidding process. However, let’s be realistic here: housing inventory has been falling since 2014 and 2022 isn’t looking any better.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2020

Home prices have continued to increase this year as a result of low inventory and high demand for homes. growth rate was more than six and a half years ago, in March 2014.”. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index covering home prices of all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 8.4% The National Index is now up 24.5%

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Housing Wire

JUNE 15, 2022

Mohtashami focused on the latest inventory and the Federal Reserve’s rate hike announcement. In 2013-2014, when rates jumped very fast, this index trended down by negative 20% year over year to hit an adjusted population all-time low in 2014. On a sour note, we still need more inventory to return to normal.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. To have that market, we need total inventory data to get back to 1.52-1.93

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Housing Wire

MAY 3, 2022

After making some Covid-19 adjustments to the data line, we will have our first negative year over year since 2014, unless something changes on the mortgage rate side. 2014 was the last year we saw a noticeable weakness in purchase application data. Inventory is very seasonal. What have we seen this year? million – and 1.93

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Housing Wire

MARCH 15, 2024

Courtesy of the Mortgage Bankers Association “This year was exacerbated by the current lack of housing inventory and mortgage rates that increased to their highest levels of the year, keeping refinancings volumes low.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 14, 2023

While spring of 2022 saw a similar share of all-cash homebuyers, one needs to look back to 2014 before seeing similar shares. Homebuyers placed competitive offers on homes while inventory grew increasingly difficult to find. At that time, housing inventory dropped to historic lows making the environment ripe for investors.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2022

People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. Also, we have to know that we aren’t working from a high level of inventory data as well. Traditionally, total inventory ranges between 2 to 2.5 NAR total inventory data.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 29, 2021

. “This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low.” Over the years, I have never believed in the premise that low inventory is holding sales back, which was expected whenever sales get weaker.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2020

For refinances, Fannie Mae’s survey revealed the net share of lenders who expect demand growth reached a survey high for government loans and the second highest reading since 2014 for GSE-eligible and non-GSE-eligible loans.

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