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Is mortgage demand really picking up?

Housing Wire

Are we seeing the start of a market shift in mortgage demand? Notably, mortgage rates have been gradually declining, and we’ve observed back-to-back positive weeks in purchase application data for the first time since mid-March. For now, we just had back-to-back weeks of positive growth, with mortgage rates still around 7%.

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Can lower mortgage rates stop the housing recession?

Housing Wire

To say that mortgage rates have been on a wild Mr. Toad’s ride in 2022 is an understatement. People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

Inventory 545
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

In 2022 it was all about finding a point in time when I thought mortgage rates would fall, which was key to understanding how the purchase application data would react to lower mortgage rates. We have had plenty of times in the previous decade when mortgage rates fell and demand improved, but that was with a lot lower mortgage rates.

Inventory 546