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Better mortgage spreads are capping rates in 2025

Housing Wire

Weekly pending contracts for the past week over the past several years: 2025: 288,605 2024: 297,402 2023: 283,689 Weekly housing inventory data The highlight of 2024 for me was the growth in housing inventory as we began to return to normal levels. Weekly inventory change (Jan. Weekly inventory change (Jan.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Housing credit channels directly impact housing inventory channels. Home prices escalated out of control after 2020 and when we look at why that happened, we can see that housing credit mattered more to inventory data than most people realize. This matters because inventory was already heading toward all-time lows before COVID-19.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Still, we have some promising signs that we might have finally hit the inventory bottom for 2023.

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Is mortgage demand really picking up?

Housing Wire

Weekly housing inventory data Inventory hit another one of my target levels this week, making it four times this year! My rule of thumb has been that inventory should have some weekly positive prints between 11,000 and 17,000 as long as rates are above 7.25%. Last week we saw positive inventory growth of 13,593 !

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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

history, and because of that, not even low inventory could prevent home prices from declining month to month in the second half of 2022. Now we can talk about the final stage: inventory in the U.S. Housing inventory The No. Housing inventory The No. I mean, it’s year 11 now of the housing bubble 2.0

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. The glaring difference between now and 2014 is that total inventory levels are roughly 1 million lower now than the peak of 2014. nominal per year at most.

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Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market forecast

Housing Wire

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. From 2013 to 2022 I forecasted price growth every year.