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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

Inventory 545
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Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market forecast

Housing Wire

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. From 2013 to 2022 I forecasted price growth every year.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

One issue that has created a waterfall dive in purchase application data and sales is that new listing data is declining faster than usual. Since the summer of 2020, I have believed the housing market could change in terms of cooling down, but it would require the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%.

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“It seems impossible:” Bergen County, NJ’s housing market is vexing agents and buyers

Housing Wire

Real estate agents in the leafy suburbs of Bergen County, New Jersey say the current housing market — with historically low inventory and record-high prices — is actually more challenging than the multiple offer chaos they sweated through during the pandemic. “At Altos considers any score above 30 to be a seller’s market.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. I knew housing would be OK as long as home prices only grew at 23% over five years — 4.6% We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

I mean, it’s year 11 now of the housing bubble 2.0 In 2022, mortgage rates got as high as 7.37%, so the question was: how low do rates have to go for housing demand to get better? On June 16, 2022, I put the housing market into a recession , which is where housing demand, housing jobs, housing income and housing production all drop.

Inventory 546
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September single-family housing starts reached highest level since 2007

Housing Wire

In contrast, multifamily starts fell 16.4%, to one of the slowest monthly paces since 2013, not including this past April.” Builders are gearing up for an even faster pace in the months ahead, which is welcome news for households wanting to buy a new home,” Fratantoni said. . “The former rose 8.5%