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The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly newlisting data is key. Newlisting data is growing year over year, but it will be the second-lowest newlisting data ever recorded in history. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year.
There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. The only time this happened was 2006-2011 — the housing bust years. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree. Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.). Now fast forward to 2022.
Since I believe most home sellers are also homebuyers, once newlistings created a new low level after mortgage rates reached over 6% in 2022, it added another layer of home demand falling off a cliff. What we want to see in 2024 is newlisting data growing in the spring season. Weekly inventory change (Dec.
The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also newlistings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal. Weekly housing inventory data The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly.
.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy.
The one period where this didn’t happen was from 2006-2011, when credit forced Americans to sell, to rent or to be homeless. During that period, we saw newlisting data decline. Outside of that time period, everything else from 1982 to 2023 was normal.
These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Since they were distressed forced sellers, inventory skyrocketed in 2006 and stayed very elevated in 2007 and 2008. As we can see below, none of that is happening today because the seller isn’t stressed.
Buyers, builders and sellers take a step back as inflation persists . On the heels of heightened mortgage rates and persistent inflation, buyers, builders and sellers have taken a step back to consider their best course of action. Sellers are responding to the shift in the market and pulling back on listing activity, resulting in a 9.8%
To give you all some perspective, this data line dropped all the way to 14 days in the crazy period of COVID-19, while back in 2011, it was 105 days. In the CNBC interview, I stressed that we do have one positive on the inventory side of things: we are seeing newlistings data growth.
Existing home sales have more legs to go lower, especially now that newlisting data is falling. A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well.
If we are trending below 4 million — a possibility with newlisting data trending at all-time lows — then we have much weaker demand than people think. This is the reality of our world: total active listings are still near all-time lows and demand so far has been stable since Nov. Now if we get a few sales prints above 4.6
I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 Newlistings are declining now. One of the issues with existing home inventory has been that, for the most part, a traditional seller is usually a buyer of a home. This is not encouraging news at all, in my view. From Redfin.
I have been forecasting since 2010 and I’ve only predicted price declines for 2011 and 2012. However, weeks after that call, the newlisting data started to decline noticeably, which makes that call much harder to happen in 2023. The higher the rate from this level, the more significant hit to affordability we will see.
11 of last year found that 27,700 violent crimes had been reported in the city, marking the highest level of violent crime in Chicago since 2011. In comparison, Chicago has 1,545 listings. While there is no doubt it is a seller’s market in Peoria, Van Cleve said many potential sellers are hesitant to list.
2023 produced the lowest number of home sales since 2005 with the exception of 2011. There were 71,149 homes listed on the market compared to 2022, which had 87,536. Sellers are sitting on their hands because although they may want to move, they’re hesitating to do so because they don’t want to trade in their pandemic-era rates.
As interest rates sought to stabilize following their sharp decline in 2020, both buyers and sellers had to acknowledge the end of the era of historically low pandemic-induced rates, and the beginning of higher monthly mortgage payments. 2023 Sees the Lowest Number of Homes Listed in Twenty-Three Years In 2023, there was a notable 19.5%
Sales in New Hampshire declined by 18.9% The drop in nearly 4,000 closings wasn’t just because buyers weren’t buying; they would, but many couldn’t because sellers weren’t selling. 2023 Sees the Lowest Number of Homes Listed in Twenty-Three Years Listings in 2023 experienced a substantial 15.1% Sales Decline by 18.9%
Many sellers were reluctant to list due to low pre-pandemic mortgage rates, but increased activity emerged from necessity and life changes , with competitive pricing becoming essential. The market began as a sellers market but shifted toward buyers with a burst of activity later in the year, and a rebound is expected in 2025.
The more difficult it is to sell a condo, the longer the property will sit on the market, and eventually sellers will have to lower the list price to appeal to more buyers. In the chart below you’ll see that the number of single-family homes sold is the lowest it has been in South Florida since 2011.
Many sellers hesitated to list their properties due to the low pre-pandemic mortgage rates, but increased market activity emerged driven by necessity and life changes, making competitive pricing crucial. The market started the year in favor of sellers but later saw a surge in activity that shifted the advantage to buyers.
Many sellers were hesitant to list their properties due to low pre-pandemic mortgage rates, but increased market activity emerged out of necessity and life changes , making competitive pricing essential. Many sellers, hesitant to part with their pandemic-era mortgage rates, had kept inventory tight, leaving buyers with limited options.
If you take 2007-2011 out of the equation, we have had only one year go negative; that was 1990, and that was only a 1% decline. To get a real price crash, we would need to see a surge of housing inventory and distressed sellers. Compare that to 2009 to 2011, when this data line ran at 250,000 to 400,000 per week.
The market favored sellers in the beginning of the year but shifted toward buyers with a burst of activity later in the year, and a rebound is expected in 2025. increase in newlistings. Many sellers had been hesitant to part with their pandemic-era low mortgage rates, keeping inventory tight and limiting buyer options.
Beyond labor strife, America’s home buyers and sellers appear to be on strike as well. October figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service strongly suggest prospective buyers and sellers are taking a wait-and-see approach. Newlistings in King were off 26% month-to-month (1583) and Active listings were down 9.4% (2296).
Here’s a negotiating tactic that you may not have thought of: Sellers who “spy” on buyers when they are visiting the home. About three in every 10 sellers say they have used a camera on the property during an open house or showing at their home, according to a study of more than 2,000 consumers from LendingTree. . >> Buyers secured 3.8
When Gogo Bethke began her career in real estate back in 2011, the Romanian immigrant felt like social media was her only option to generate leads and close deals. “I Instead, the Michigan-based eXp agent created her Facebook business page shortly after passing her licensing exam in 2011 and named it “Gogo’s Real Estate.”. “I
To be sure, the market is still leaning heavily in the sellers’ favor and listings are slimmer than a strand of spaghetti. Newlistings are up 6.3% Condo sales are in a similar boat, with newlistings higher – by 4.3% in Q2, down from 6.8% OCTOBER HOUSING UPDATE. 1 vs. Sept. Median condo prices were up 1.9%
SETTLEMENT FOLLOW-UP A judge has preliminarily approved the $418M antitrust class-action settlement involving sellers’ compensation to brokers/agents in residential real estate sales. News of the settlement and its impact topped last month’s newsletter. Details still need to be ironed out, but U.S.
The King County housing market has seen inventory increase by 55% in the past month, while the number of homes going under contract fell 22% from May to the lowest June level since 2011. While the number of newlistings in June jumped 8.2% The fresh data show a clear slowing of the housing market.
Between 2011 and 2019, the median household income in our area increased by about 34% but housing prices jumped 78%. That includes 621 fewer Pending contracts in April 2022 than the previous April, as the net number of newlistings remains on average lower than in years past. on a just-shy half-acre in the Mt.
Buyers and sellers across King County may answer with an Oh, yeah! by looking at Januarys Northwest Multiple Listing Service report. Sellers got a head start on spring by introducing more than double the number of homes for sale in December. Newlistings are 38% higher across the entire U.S.
The newlistings data we track with Altos Research is trending at the lowest levels ever during the past few years, while back then it was running at accelerated levels. Look at the difference between this week in 2024 versus the same weeks in 2009-2011. We had a lot of stressed sellers back then!
Newlistings data had a slight increase this week from 60,066 to 60,819. However, for 2024, we’ve seen inventory growth and no newlistings data from stressed sellers. Inventory fell from 736,014 to 735,718. The positive story for 2024 os far is that inventory has grown.
Critical to most buyers and sellers is the single-family-home market. The county has completed only 19,868 total home sales this year, which is the lowest figure since 2011 when 18,930 homes sold through the first 10 months. And, as sellers outnumber buyers this time of year, competitive pressure has all but disappeared.
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