Remove 2008 Remove New Listings Remove Sellers
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

Purchase application data is now below 2008 levels! But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine. Right on cue, 2020 came and we hit the 300 level.

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New listings data is growing and prices still aren’t crashing

Housing Wire

The rules of supply and demand economics always end up winning and weekly new listing data is key. New listing data is growing year over year, but it will be the second-lowest new listing data ever recorded in history. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year.

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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

This is the kind of information you need as we get close to Thanksgiving and share the dinner table with Uncle Dave who says (for the 13th year) that we’re seeing 2008 all over again. Foreclosure data The chart below shows that the 2008 housing crisis started years before the 2008 recession.

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Housing inventory defied all predictions in 2023

Housing Wire

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. The speed at which home sales crashed in 2022 was historic, but in 2023, no matter how high mortgage rates got, new listings data didn’t create a new leg lower.

Inventory 521
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Today’s sellers don’t have to worry about underwater mortgages

Housing Wire

Underwater mortgages where borrowers owe more on their home than what it is worth pose a risk of foreclosure and hinder people from selling their homes, something that was rampant after 2008. Underwater mortgages are a proper barrier for sellers more so even than mortgage rates. Therefore, the fact that this data line is just 0.1%

Sellers 239
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

Mortgage 525
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

Inventory 518