Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2023

Did today’s existing home sales report give us a playbook for housing in 2024? I would argue yes, and the housing market today looks a lot like what we saw in late 2022. I give more details in this interview on why I believe the housing market dynamics shifted on Nov. months in 2008. months in 2008.

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Housing Wire

MAY 2, 2023

The housing market functions differently than other markets because it can be characterized as a heterogeneous, thinly traded, illiquid market. In other words, it’s a diverse market with a wide variety of different homes of varying ages and levels of repair, and sales happen very rarely. The result is fewer sales.

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Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2023

The rise of active listings in this spring housing market reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Can you imagine the housing market at that point?

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Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. Even today, the MBA purchase application index is below 2008 levels. The reality is that home sellers and builders had too much pricing power.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. didn’t go into recession until 2008. As you can see in the chart below, there is a big difference between these two different historic housing economic cycles.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

This “higher for longer” conventional wisdom is working its way through the housing market. It shows obvious slowing demand, but is also a reflection of the fact that most of the year we had more buyers than sellers of residential real estate. There’s a lot of signal in the local markets too. and imagining 5.5%

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 1, 2022

However, there are a number of attention-grabbing headlines, which unfortunately only compare today’s housing market to the very recent history of the last two years. It is always good to know where we are with the real estate market, but it is essential to keep all data in historical perspective. . Historically 2.5

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

This is the kind of information you need as we get close to Thanksgiving and share the dinner table with Uncle Dave who says (for the 13th year) that we’re seeing 2008 all over again. Foreclosure data The chart below shows that the 2008 housing crisis started years before the 2008 recession.

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Housing Wire

MAY 3, 2024

As the spring selling season kicks off, many educated sellers know that buyers are experiencing spring fever and are tired of sitting on the fence watching home prices increase. As a result, sellers who are winning in this market spent time making sure their homes are in show-ready condition.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. Since the credit standards have improved post-2010, we shouldn’t see distressed sellers until a job loss recession happens, even if sales fall noticeably.

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Housing Wire

MAY 8, 2024

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2021

According to the CoreLogic Buyer/Seller Market Indicator, which measures the ratio between sold price and list price, buyer competition reached a new peak nationally in October and November when the ratio climbed to 0.996 – the highest level since 2008, when the data series began.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. However, the people who say low inventory is fake news don’t realize that housing credit channels are very different from 2008, which has prevented total active listings from looking anything like 2008.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

However, we have entered a tricky period in housing economics where we might have to take this premise more seriously since mortgage rates recently got as low as 2.5% It all started when mortgage rates jumped from 5.25% to 6.25% this year and I saw how home sellers reacted to that move. Can you blame home sellers?

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

On a positive note, however, the days on the market are no longer a teenager anymore: that metric grew from 18 days to 21 days. I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

Newly released data from the annual profile of home buyers and sellers by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows just how dramatically this trend has manifested since the financial crisis of 2008. Elevated mortgage rates, sky-high home prices, tight credit and stagnant wages have all contributed to homebuyers getting older.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Looking at the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence data and builder stock prices, I can say the homebuilders got very lucky this time around in the middle of a housing recession. There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. While the two charts above are falling noticeably, housing completion data is slowly moving up.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the housing market like no event since the 2008 financial crisis, but some of the trends induced by the pandemic are starting to reverse.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 10, 2022

We can’t just show homes; we have to be a professional real estate business, which means being able to have real conversations when buyers and sellers ask us questions like, “Did we miss the market?” “Are Are we in a housing bubble?” Of course, the answer is about why this is not the same market — in any way — to post 2008.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 21, 2023

. “His deep understanding of global economies, real estate markets, technology, consumer demographics, and investments will further enhance our ability to empower, educate, and equip real estate agents as the housing market continues to evolve.”

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Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2022

This article is part of our housing market economic update series. At the end of this series, you can join us on May 10 for a Housing Market Update webinar. Homes that reach the market sell quickly, bidding wars are the new normal and the investor share of sales continues to rise.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million homes, which would mean the madness in the housing market would be over.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2022

The forecast for the housing market in 2023 gets worse by the month, with the latest report predicting a million-plus decline in existing home sales. The slowing effect on the housing market of the higher mortgage rate environment has been largely predictable, and home prices appear to have already begun trending downward.”.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 14, 2023

This article is part of our 2023 Housing Market Forecast series. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the top predictions for this year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business. Today, the average is 2.7

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 3, 2022

The housing market has not seen such a significant two-month drop in prices since shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in winter of 2008, Black Knight said on Monday. The market grew from just 1.7 “Some may be waiting out the market to see if demand – and prices – return in the spring.” .

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that this new home sales report beat estimates, but I would say that in the future, if mortgage rates get back toward 6%, the homebuilders have creative ways to sell their homes that the existing home seller might not be inclined to do. The housing market story is about where the 10-year yield is going.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 8, 2024

Despite the population decline, Illinois’ housing market remains relatively strong. The state has an Altos Research Market Action Index score of 44, which is above the national score of 39. Altos considers anything above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market. Across the state, as of Feb.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Over the last two and a half years of U.S.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

million , that would mean it’s a good year for housing demand. million , so every single existing home sales print in 2021 has been higher than what we closed in 2020 — which was higher than any single year from 2008 to 2019. From NAR : In November, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $353,900, up 13.9%

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 15, 2024

About a year ago, I started noticing a parallel between the housing market and the labor market. The conventional wisdom for almost three years has been that job market must weaken, unemployment must be rising. Compare that to the housing market. That happened in the 2008 bubble burst.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2024

It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023. Our housing market tracker counts weekly active single-family listings, those homes that aren’t in the contract, and the raw available number of homes for sale. Whenever the days on the market fall to a teenager level, nothing good happens in housing.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 20, 2023

As I have said many times over the last few months, the builders are efficient sellers and they’re taking advantage of an existing home sales market that is suffering from low inventory and higher mortgage rates. Can you imagine a housing market with mortgage rates at 5% instead of 7%?

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million homes, which would mean the madness in the housing market would be over.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 22, 2024

Unlike many other metropolitan areas across the country , the housing market in Southwest Florida is comparably flush with for-sale inventory. “I But while rising insurance costs are certainly a challenge for owners and buyers in Southwest Florida, Haydon said the slower housing market is good news for a lot of buyers. “I

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