Remove 2008 Remove Construction Remove Sellers
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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

There are similarities and significant differences between the housing recession we’ve seen this year versus 2008, and looking at specific factors in both timeframes gives us an idea of what to expect in 2023. Let’s look at the recessionary factors we see now versus 2008. First, we must define what we mean by recession.

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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. However, the glaring difference today versus the recession of 2008, is that in 2007 the builders had to deal with over 4 million active listings as competition for their pricey new homes. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 In the last report, the builders had 9.0

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New home sales proving Wall Street was wrong 

Housing Wire

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. 267,000 homes are under construction, still.

Inventory 501
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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

Now don’t get me wrong: demand is better in 2020 and 2021 than in any single year from 2008 to 2019. But we should ask: Why is inventory so much lower now if purchase application data is at 2009 levels — a period in time when inventory was rising noticeably in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009? Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008.

Inventory 526
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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that this new home sales report beat estimates, but I would say that in the future, if mortgage rates get back toward 6%, the homebuilders have creative ways to sell their homes that the existing home seller might not be inclined to do. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

Inventory 501
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Home prices surge to six-year high in November

Housing Wire

According to the CoreLogic Buyer/Seller Market Indicator, which measures the ratio between sold price and list price, buyer competition reached a new peak nationally in October and November when the ratio climbed to 0.996 – the highest level since 2008, when the data series began.

Inventory 544
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Two years after fleeing to the suburbs, homebuyers have flocked back to cities

Housing Wire

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the housing market like no event since the 2008 financial crisis, but some of the trends induced by the pandemic are starting to reverse. That’s evident in the annual profile of home buyers and sellers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which provides data on dozens of real estate trends.

Realtors 468