Remove 2008 Remove Construction Remove New Listings
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Logan Mohtashami’s 2024 housing market and rate forecast

Housing Wire

If I am wrong and mortgage rates go lower for longer and we don’t get more new listings in 2024, then home prices can grow faster in 2024 because we will have the same issue as before: too many people chasing too few homes. We haven’t had new listings data break over 90,000 in the peak seasons of 2021, 2022 or 2023.

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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. However, the glaring difference today versus the recession of 2008, is that in 2007 the builders had to deal with over 4 million active listings as competition for their pricey new homes. Here’s the breakout: 71,000 new homes have been completed: 1.4

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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

months of the supply is active listings, 68K 5 months of the supply is still under construction, 280K 1.6 The majority of inventory comes from the existing home sales market and if you compare it to 2008, back then we didn’t even have 200,000 homes available for sale and currently we are at 68,000. When supply is 4.3

Inventory 501
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Mortgage market affordability and inventory challenges

Housing Wire

In Portland, Oregon, for example, one loan officer noted that new listings doubled in the second half of May from 800 to 1,900 new listings. In Seattle, Dan Keller reported 47% of all listings had price reductions. Slow construction and restrictive zoning laws.

Inventory 418
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Existing home sales are working from a historic low bar

Housing Wire

It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023. Yesterday on CNBC , I talked about the state of the housing market and how important it was that the builders’ confidence data was rising because that keeps construction workers employed and building homes. I call it an alligator chart opening its mouth, see below.

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Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market forecast

Housing Wire

However, weeks after that call, the new listing data started to decline noticeably, which makes that call much harder to happen in 2023. However, I acknowledge that the housing dynamics have changed a lot since that forecast in June as new listing data declined. million in 2023. million for 2023. Housing recession.

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Expanding Supply, Easing Prices Bring Relief to King County Housing Market

Will Springer Realtor

Realtor.com reported that our broader market (including Bellevue and Tacoma) experienced the sharpest rise in new listings compared with last year, up 42%. The 14% monthly rise in King County new listings included a shocking 52% surge in Seattle (1430 units). The number of Active listings is another eye-opener.