Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 514

Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

The smart thing to do is go with the builder sentiment trend until it reverses, and most likely, we will need to see lower mortgage rates for that to happen. From the National Association of Home Builders : Looking at the housing starts report, the numbers came in slightly better than anticipated, driven by multifamily construction.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Real Estate 526

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2021

First and foremost, it is important to remember that more Americans are buying homes with mortgages in 2020 and 2021 than any single year from 2008-2019. From 2008 to 2019 we had the weakest housing recovery ever, following a bust. Don’t expect a buying or construction boom during this period.

Housing Market 535

Housing Market Marketing Construction Investors 535

Housing Wire

MAY 31, 2022

Mortgage lenders and real estate investment firms this month entered tight housing markets in the Midwest and the Northwest to better reach prospective homebuyers, despite a challenging mortgage market. The expansion comes amid a surge in mortgage rates and declining loan origination volume.

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Mortgage Construction Lending Real Estate 397

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. Let me explain my logic with today’s housing starts report.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 526

Housing Wire

APRIL 2, 2021

Sectors that were hit hardest by the pandemic led job growth last month, with jumps in leisure, hospitality, public and private education and construction – good signs for the housing industry. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects this heightened pace to drop unemployment numbers to below 5% by the end of the year.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Business 514

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Top incentive methods include paying points for buyers, which 25% of builders reported using; mortgage rate buy downs , which 27% of builders reported using; and price cuts , which 37% of builders used. To remedy this “housing sector recession,” the NAHB is calling on policymakers to take action. In October the survey had 121 respondents.

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Buyers Mortgage Real Estate Housing Market 545

Housing Wire

JUNE 7, 2021

During the previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019, the housing market was subject to the constant refrain of build more homes. The previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest housing recovery ever. Because that period followed a housing boom and bust when inventory was overbuilt. Here is why.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Construction 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. 267,000 homes are under construction, still.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 501

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. months of the supply is active listings, 68K 5 months of the supply is still under construction, 280K 1.6 When supply is 4.3 months and above.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 501

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Now don’t get me wrong: demand is better in 2020 and 2021 than in any single year from 2008 to 2019. The first answer is that people are staying in their homes longer post-2008. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 526

Housing Wire

JULY 7, 2022

With a rapid spike in interest rates, inventory at historic lows, home prices rising at unprecedented levels above income, and a purchase market that is both highly anxious and digitally reliant, mortgage and real estate professionals must be strategic to capture the market opportunity today. Slow construction and restrictive zoning laws.

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Inventory Marketing Mortgage Supply Chain 418

Housing Wire

JULY 14, 2023

Bordick , under the federal Truth in Lending Act (TILA) on behalf of a couple that took out a mortgage in 2008 in order to purchase land for the construction of a new home. While they sold the home in 2014, the sale proceeds were not enough to cover the debt since the home lost value during the 2008 financial crisis.

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Law Mortgage Construction Lending 368

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. months of homes they have under construction or have not even started yet. Now that mortgage rates have spiked up so much, the housing construction growth we have seen in single-family construction is done. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Business 525

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. As I have stressed time after time, we shouldn’t be using the housing economic models of 2002-2008 — that would have led everyone to believe we had a mass supply of housing coming online in 2022.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2021

As we enter the second quarter of 2021, it’s time for the mortgage industry to reflect on the past 12 months and think about how to plan for the same period ahead. Low mortgage rates, driven by quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve helped fuel a boom in both mortgage refinancing and purchases, making 2020 the second-best year in U.S.

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Development Lending Mortgage Marketing 448

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

JULY 17, 2024

Despite a 3% monthly increase , the pace of new housing construction was 4.4% Multi-family construction has cooled considerably, while the dip in new single-family construction was more modest,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS , said in a statement. “A A slowdown in apartment construction is not surprising.

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Construction Property Management Development Housing Market 468

Housing Wire

JANUARY 1, 2024

The 2023 housing market faced one of the same roadblocks we saw in 2022: mortgage rates were too high for home sales growth. Here’s my forecast for 2024: 10-year yield and mortgage rates For 2024, the 10-year yield range will be similar to 2023, but with a few different variables to watch. Instead, they closed 2023 at 6.67%.

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Housing Market Marketing New Listings Construction 531

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Mortgage rates continued the downward trend this week amid signs that the U.S. That’s why the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate decreased to 6.33% this week, down 16 basis points compared to the previous week, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey. economy is cooling down due to the tightening monetary policy. drop in 2023.

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Mortgage Home Value Construction Investors 397

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

One of the urban myths spouted by people needing more experience tracking housing data was that millions of homes would hit the marketplace in 2023 because the builders had so many homes under construction. Even in the worst housing bubble crash of our lifetime in 2008, the number of new homes for sale was under 200,000. percent (±12.3

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Construction Buyers Mortgage Inventory 482

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 24, 2021

months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. For housing, I have stayed true to my bond yield mortgage rate call of the summer of 2020. For housing to slow, it needs mortgage rates above 3.75% and the 10-year yield to break 1.94%, which wasn’t part of my 2021 forecast. When supply is 4.4 When supply is 6.5

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 511

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Five months of the supply are homes in construction.

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Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

The builders have managed their backlog nicely to ensure this data line doesn’t explode higher on them like we saw in 2008. NAR total active listings data going back to 1982 : This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings.

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 516

Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2024

A Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-sponsored Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) requires a borrower to be at or over the age of 62 to qualify for a loan, making baby boomers most of the new qualifying candidates for a HECM. A new report from Construction Coverage sourced by its researchers and data from the U.S.

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Marketing Construction Housing Market Mortgage 468

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 16, 2021

We’ve had the sharpest and yet also the shortest recession in history, record-low mortgage rates leading to record origination volumes, and record home prices as housing demand far outstripped supply. How will the Federal Reserve respond to economic developments in 2022, and what will be the impact on mortgage rates?

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Marketing Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory 482

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

The context for this number is that from 2008-2019 my belief was that we would have the weakest housing recovery ever, but in the years 2020-2024, our demographics for housing became vastly improved. The new home sales market is doing well as it really benefits from lower mortgage rates. million or higher until this year.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 543

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2020

The reasons for that are solid demographics and low mortgage rates , which will not change much in 2021. months, builders will halt the rate of growth for new construction plans as they did in 2018 and again for a brief period this year. months, the builders are ok with construction as long as new home sales grow.

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Inventory Construction Government Housing Market 545

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

I have been consistent in my stance that during the years 2008 to 2019, we had the weakest housing recovery ever. Only then would we see enough demand from the new home sales market to warrant that much construction. months, then the market has issues, and builders will likely stall on construction. If inventory breaks over 6.5

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Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 538

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2022

Homebuilders responded to the shortage of homes for sale, accelerating new home construction, even as they face severe supply-side challenges, including rising building material costs and supply-chain bottlenecks, a lack of affordable lots, and difficulty in finding skilled labor. Since 2018, the housing supply deficit has been growing.

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Supply Chain Housing Market Construction Inventory 511

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2020

FHA’s mission is to support low-to-moderate income borrowers, so why does the law permit FHA to insure mortgages up to $822,375? Under HERA, the FHA calculates forward mortgage limits by Metropolitan Statistical Area and county. In approximately 65 high-cost U.S. In 125 counties, FHA’s loan limits will remain unchanged.

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Law Housing Market Insurance Construction 534

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. Of course, mortgage rates are much higher right now.

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 505

Housing Wire

AUGUST 18, 2020

The Census report on new construction showed a whopping 22.6% To understand the housing recovery during the COVID-19 crisis, it is critical to remember that from 2008-2019 we experienced the weakest housing recovery from a crash ever recorded. Added to this we have the lowest mortgage rates ever.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Inventory 546

Housing Wire

AUGUST 29, 2022

The construction industry has yet to fully recover from the 2008 financial crisis when it lost a big segment of its skilled construction workforce. Pandemic-related supply chain snags have impacted the prices of key construction inputs like lumber, steel, and copper. The good news.

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Construction Supply Chain Finance Legal 459

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. However, with that said, the low bar this data line had enjoyed from 2008-to 2019 is gone and we do need to earn growth in this sector.

Construction 496

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 496

Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2021

According to the CoreLogic Buyer/Seller Market Indicator, which measures the ratio between sold price and list price, buyer competition reached a new peak nationally in October and November when the ratio climbed to 0.996 – the highest level since 2008, when the data series began. But it will be some time before these changes bring relief.

Inventory 544

Inventory Housing Market Buyers Sellers 544

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Mortgage rates of 4%-5% weren’t doing the amount of demand destruction I thought they would. Mortgage rates closer to 6% for sure are driving bigger year-over-year decline data. However, mortgage rates getting to 6.25% indeed have picked up the pace on the year-over-year declines percentage wise in the purchase application data.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 540