Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 7, 2021

During the previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019, the housing market was subject to the constant refrain of build more homes. The previous economic expansion from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest housing recovery ever. Because that period followed a housing boom and bust when inventory was overbuilt. Here is why.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. The big difference now than, let’s say, what we saw from 2002-2008.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. The truth is, it’s not 2008 all over again. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. This represents a supply of 7.6

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

There is one simple reason for this: it’s not 2008. However, the glaring difference today versus the recession of 2008, is that in 2007 the builders had to deal with over 4 million active listings as competition for their pricey new homes. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 In the last report, the builders had 9.0

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Homebuilders’ for-sale inventory and months’ supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 439,000. months of the supply is active listings, 68K 5 months of the supply is still under construction, 280K 1.6 However, this isn’t how inventory grows in America. When supply is 4.3

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2020

months, builders will halt the rate of growth for new construction plans as they did in 2018 and again for a brief period this year. For now, though, the low inventory means housing starts have legs to move higher. months, the builders are ok with construction as long as new home sales grow. If supply goes over 6.5 Hard pass.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

We don’t need to be concerned about the moderation in the new home sales data because inventory is still low. ” I’m sure you’ve heard the thesis that low inventory suppresses sales. Home sales have gotten to pre-cycle highs with the inventory at pre-cycle lows. Builder confidence is primarily based on inventory.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months are completed homes.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

I have been consistent in my stance that during the years 2008 to 2019, we had the weakest housing recovery ever. Only then would we see enough demand from the new home sales market to warrant that much construction. Higher levels of Inventory in the range of 4.4 If inventory breaks over 6.5 Anything below 4.3

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Housing Wire

JULY 17, 2024

Despite a 3% monthly increase , the pace of new housing construction was 4.4% Multi-family construction has cooled considerably, while the dip in new single-family construction was more modest,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS , said in a statement. “A A slowdown in apartment construction is not surprising.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2021

Record low inventory and strong buyer demand once again pushed up the cost of homes in the U.S., “With buyer demand continuing to outpace the previous year’s levels amid historically lowest inventory of for-sale homes, the pressure on home prices is going to fuel home price growth in the first half of 2021,” Happ said. .

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

The builders have managed their backlog nicely to ensure this data line doesn’t explode higher on them like we saw in 2008. Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales. Now on to the report.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. Back then, we had higher sales, higher inventory, and less price growth, but we had a massive credit bubble.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2022

In November 2021, the supply of homes for sale nationwide as a percentage of occupied residential inventory remained near historic lows at 1.19% — meaning only 119 in every 10,000 homes were for sale — much lower than the historical average of 2.5%. The majority of the supply of homes for sale come from existing homes, not new construction.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

One of the urban myths spouted by people needing more experience tracking housing data was that millions of homes would hit the marketplace in 2023 because the builders had so many homes under construction. Even in the worst housing bubble crash of our lifetime in 2008, the number of new homes for sale was under 200,000.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

For 2020-2024, I set some critical parameters for sales and price growth, knowing that this marketplace will be different from the market we had from 2008 to 2019. Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 24, 2021

months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. This is also why I still will never believe in a construction boom premise here in America. Builders remember 2018 very well because while 5% mortgage rates didn’t really impact the existing home sales total inventory levels much, it created a supply shock for the builders.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 18, 2020

The Census report on new construction showed a whopping 22.6% We spent parts of 2019 whittling down the excess inventory. To understand the housing recovery during the COVID-19 crisis, it is critical to remember that from 2008-2019 we experienced the weakest housing recovery from a crash ever recorded.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. Currently, new home sales have been trending better as the builders are taking advantage of low existing inventory. However, because of the COVID-19 delays, we are still working through a backlog of homes under construction.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2024

It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023. Remember, with median sales prices and inventory, it’s very seasonal. However, remember, the dive in inventory is normal at this time of the year. Below are charts with today’s report and the trend. I call it an alligator chart opening its mouth, see below.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 1, 2024

This would happen if we saw a surge of stressed inventory and mortgage rates didn’t go low enough to handle that much new supply into the market. So, this is something to consider only if we see an increase in stressed inventory. This means the homebuilders can sell more homes and keep construction workers employed longer.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 10, 2022

His recent article, “Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?” takes a deep dive into what the heck is going on with purchase applications, housing demand and inventory levels. This article, for example, asks why, if purchase applications are down to 2009 levels, are inventory levels still so freaking low?

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Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2024

In addition, any reprieve in the housing inventory shortage created by more multifamily units hitting the market is expected to be short-lived. And even though we expect to see a large delivery of multifamily units over the next few years, this will not resolve the broader lack of inventory that we see across the country.”

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing Inventory. Home price s. million in 2023. We are at 8.6

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Housing Wire

APRIL 14, 2023

The National Association of Realtors Research Group has produced the index since 2008, a time of turbulence in the real estate market. Homebuyers placed competitive offers on homes while inventory grew increasingly difficult to find. At that time, housing inventory dropped to historic lows making the environment ripe for investors.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. However, with that said, the low bar this data line had enjoyed from 2008-to 2019 is gone and we do need to earn growth in this sector.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 27, 2023

291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 For homebuilders, the monthly supply of new homes is still too high From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply, The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 461,000. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

After record sales in 2021, demand for new construction waned throughout 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates cutting into home buyer’s purchase power and making financing new development projects even more costly for builders. BH: What are you expecting to see in terms of demand for new construction heading into 2023?

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Appraisal Buzz

DECEMBER 18, 2024

One key finding is that self-storage has seen a 91% increase in inventory since the 1980s. By comparison, retail construction has slowed dramatically, averaging just 41-million square feet annually in recent years due to the rise of e-commerce. Multifamily construction, on the other hand, has seen more consistent growth.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 21, 2023

Affordability constraints and tight inventories will continue to limit home sales and the 10-year Treasury has moved up meaningfully since the completion of our interest rate forecast, suggesting mortgage rates will soon be back on the rise,” according to the ESR group. for the next year.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Though February’s new sales were below recent highs, builders are still selling homes at a higher seasonally adjusted rate than they did at any point between 2008 and 2019,” Zillow economist data analyst Dan Handy said in a statement. Year-over-year, new home sales were down 6.2% in February. This is an increase of 3.3% after a 10.4%

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 5, 2021

Navigating the business climate during the early pandemic and the 2008 financial meltdown were incredibly stressful times filled with uncertainty. Rich DeNicola: Inventory is going to persist as a major issue for the foreseeable future. HousingWire: W hat has been one of your biggest learning opportunities?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 8, 2022

Supply-side” solutions that focus on new construction and the preservation of the existing housing stock are equally important. Low housing inventory. since 2008. We can also invest in and deploy new construction technologies, like 3D printing, which could save time and reduce costs. been falling sharply ?since

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

November continued to see a slip in home construction activity, despite inflation cooling off and mortgage rates falling,” Nicole Bachaud, Zillow’s economist, said in a statement. November’s annual housing start rate was down 16.4% on a yearly basis, reflecting the continued decline in homebuilder confidence and middling sales activity.

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