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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

As you can see in the chart below, the credit markets broke in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, and then the job-loss recession of 2008 started, which made things much worse. The new listings data we track with Altos Research is trending at the lowest levels ever during the past few years, while back then it was running at accelerated levels.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. million, currently at 1,110,000 As you can see above, inventory grew at a healthy clip in previous decades and then had a parabolic run higher in 2006 and 2007 when active inventory reached 4 million. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

On Wednesday, existing home sales collapsed near the lows we saw during COVID-19 and back in 2007 when the housing bubble burst. “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. .” Confused by this?

Inventory 531
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

Weekly housing inventory Since new listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

Inventory 525
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory falls even lower

Housing Wire

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023.

Inventory 539
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Opinion: Riding the wave

Housing Wire

As the spring selling season kicks off, many educated sellers know that buyers are experiencing spring fever and are tired of sitting on the fence watching home prices increase. In Denver in particular, new listings increased 29.12% month-over-month and 22.63% year-over-year.

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