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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Just look how lousy credit looked below in 2005, 2006 and 2007 — all before the job-loss recession in 2008. Demographics also play a role here.

Inventory 513
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. If that is the case, then this week’s gain in active inventory and new listings needs to be taken with a grain of salt until we get next week’s data. However, I will take what I can now.

Inventory 545
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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Since they were distressed forced sellers, inventory skyrocketed in 2006 and stayed very elevated in 2007 and 2008. Only from 2006-2011 did we see this break due to forced sellers who couldn’t buy homes.

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The health of this housing market: Comparing 2024 data to 2011

Housing Wire

But since we have such low active listings today, even with 2024 being another year of low home sales, the days on the market are still under 30 days, which means homes that are priced right are selling quickly. New listings The most significant and glaring difference between 2011 and 2024 is the weekly new listings data for the peak season.

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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

As you can see in the chart below, the credit markets broke in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, and then the job-loss recession of 2008 started, which made things much worse. The new listings data we track with Altos Research is trending at the lowest levels ever during the past few years, while back then it was running at accelerated levels.

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The one period where this didn’t happen was from 2006-2011, when credit forced Americans to sell, to rent or to be homeless. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. Total housing costs for American homeowners versus their wages are meager, and most will buy a home right away when they sell.

Inventory 541
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June.

Inventory 530