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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 498
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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

Inventory 545
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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

However, I will give you all the charts to show Uncle Dave that housing credit doesn’t look like it did in 2008 because the qualified mortgage (QM) law makes that impossible. None of that action has been happening for 14 years because the credit market changed after the 2010 qualified mortgage rule.

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The one period where this didn’t happen was from 2006-2011, when credit forced Americans to sell, to rent or to be homeless. From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Inventory 541
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

“The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June. This is the biggest story in housing. .

Inventory 528
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The health of this housing market: Comparing 2024 data to 2011

Housing Wire

Today’s housing market suffers from affordability issues due to mortgage rates in the 7s and high home prices. But since we have such low active listings today, even with 2024 being another year of low home sales, the days on the market are still under 30 days, which means homes that are priced right are selling quickly.