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Ive been doing this since 2005 and I tell clients that Ive never seen a market like this, so we have to navigate it together. A substantial drop in newlistings is a contributing factor. 1, weekly newlistings were at 410 but have since dropped to 186, although newlistings tend to drop in December as the holidays approach.
But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. Newlisting data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.
Instead of making up for the shortfall, newlistings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, newlisting volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. year-over-year in January, the most growth in a single year since 2005.
You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Just look how lousy credit looked below in 2005, 2006 and 2007 — all before the job-loss recession in 2008. Demographics also play a role here.
However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. Newlistings are declining now.
We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing newlisting data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the newlisting data started to decline at the end of June.
But since we have such low active listings today, even with 2024 being another year of low home sales, the days on the market are still under 30 days, which means homes that are priced right are selling quickly. Newlistings The most significant and glaring difference between 2011 and 2024 is the weekly newlistings data for the peak season.
During that period, we saw newlisting data decline. However, in 2020 newlisting data came back, and we don’t want to see the newlistings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market. So the fact that we are back to an average of 26 days on market makes me happier.
Weekly housing inventory Since newlisting data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. didn’t go into recession until 2008.
As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply.
Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and newlistings declined. Newlisting data was trending at all-time lows in 2021 abd 2022 and now it’s creating a new all-time low trend in 2023.
Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Total active listings grew 662 weekly, and newlisting data is still trending at all-time lows. This doesn’t appear to be the case for 2023.
Seasonal impacts are the norm with housing, and newlisting data is negative 6% year to date. We saw newlisting data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time. However, as we can see, the inventory data looks much different than what we saw in 2000, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2015 and 2018.
As you can see in our newlisting data, we are showing growth. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory. Just as they did in 2023, higher rates took the winds out of the growing sales numbers. It’s nothing spectacular but it’s growth nonetheless.
If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. When we look at active listings today, we are still at 980,000, near all-time lows, even with the recent massive hit to demand. To get more inventory you need more Americans to list their homes.
Weekly inventory fell by 6201 , and newlisting data is down noticeably from last year, which was different than last week. The 10-year yield, already at a key critical level, couldn’t break higher but reversed and went lower Friday after the jobs report and the news around Silicon Valley Bank. million in 2023.
If we are trending below 4 million — a possibility with newlisting data trending at all-time lows — then we have much weaker demand than people think. million before we saw the massive stress spike in supply from 2005 to 2007. We have a workable range for 2023 sales in the existing home sales market between 4 million and 4.6
However, weeks after that call, the newlisting data started to decline noticeably, which makes that call much harder to happen in 2023. However, I acknowledge that the housing dynamics have changed a lot since that forecast in June as newlisting data declined. million in 2023. million for 2023. Housing recession.
This means the housing boom period of 2002-2005 had major credit tightening, which won’t happen this time around when the next recession hits. To have a balanced housing market, we need active listings to rise yearly, which they typically do; 2020 was an anomaly. The only time this happened was 2006-2011 — the housing bust years.
Moreover, 30% of El Paso shoppers are looking at local homes from out-of-state, with top views coming from New York, Albuquerque, and Los Angeles.”. A Redfin statistical study of the El Paso housing market showed a 2% year-over year rise in newlistings (936 from September 2019 to 956 in September 2020) and a gigantic 40.3%
Just look at the chart below and how bad credit looked from 2005 to 2008, then the job loss recession happened. Last year newlisting growth turned negative year over year when rates got over 6%; now with rates rising into the spring season, we will see a lack of enthusiasm from sellers.
Number of NewListings per Month for Single Families + Condos See these Updated Graphs in real time Lamacchia Realty South Florida Real Estate Updates Homes listed Monthly Time on Market The time it takes for a home to sell has naturally begun to take longer due to the increase in options for buyers. It will also cost you.
Sales were down in all three categories: Single family sales down by 22.1%: 40,828 in 2023 from 52,397 in 2022 Condo sales down by 18.7%: 19,199 in 2023 from 23,616 in 2022 Multi-family sales down by 28.5%: 5,739 in 2023 from 8,031 in 2022 Below is a graph that illustrates home sales per year since 2005.
Sales were up in two out of three categories: Single family sales up by 2.9%: 42,023 in 2024 from 40,828 in 2023 Condo sales down by 2.3%: 18,767 in 2024 from 19,199 in 2023 Multi-family sales up by 3.6%: 5,944 in 2024 from 5,739 in 2023 Below is a graph that illustrates home sales per year since 2005. rise in the number of listings.
Where I disagree with Yun is this: We have more inventory because demand has been softer, and we have more newlistings this year compared to last. Foreclosure levels are historically low As you can see below, foreclosure and bankruptcy data rose between 2005 and 2008, all before the job loss recession started.
Sales were up in all three categories: Single family sales up by 3.3%: 12,007 in 2024 from 11,625 in 2023 Condo sales up by 4.7%: 4,020 in 2024 from 3,839 in 2023 Multi-family sales up by 10.3%: 941 in 2024 from 853 in 2023 Below is a graph that illustrates home sales per year since 2005. increase in listings.
Homes Listed – All of NH. Newlistings in 2021 followed a less treacherous trendline in 2021 than 2020 but still couldn’t quite keep up with pre-pandemic markets. decrease in the state of New Hampshire brought listings to 27,131 from 28,127 the previous year. Cheshire moved 15.8% from $273,641 to $316,801.
Since 2005, Lamacchia Realty has used market data to fine-tune pricing strategies, launching the Lamacchia Realty Target Pricing Model in 2007. This will continue to increase in the months to come and the 2025 line will end up being higher than all the prior years for condos and maybe for single families as well. It will also cost you.
Developed over time with the guidance of prominent designer John Saladino initially and then later with the legendary architect Peter Marino who reimagined the structure back in 2005 and oversaw a 10,000 square foot addition to the house. We are seeing more newlistings across the country, and it’s something we’re also seeing locally.
First, the losing buyers are still actively pursuing newlistings, keeping demand high. Lamacchia Realty has been selling homes since 2005 and tracking data to develop an effective model for pricing homes. Second, the elevated sale prices resulting from bidding wars are preventing prices from dropping.
NAR total inventory since 1982: I prefer the Altos Research weekly single-family data to the NAR data because it gives us a fresh look at not only active listing data but newlisting data. The Altos Research newlisting data is essential in tracking the supply aspect of housing, which is why I include it as part of the Tracker.
Credit channels and inventory channels both changed after 2010 because of the qualified mortgage laws and the 2005 bankruptcy reform laws. There is a better case that we can get below 4 million if mortgage rates stay high and newlisting data starts its seasonal decline in the data.
As you can see in the chart below, the credit markets broke in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, and then the job-loss recession of 2008 started, which made things much worse. The newlistings data we track with Altos Research is trending at the lowest levels ever during the past few years, while back then it was running at accelerated levels.
There were many years of housing data in the early to mid-1980s and mid to late 1990s, and even from 2000 to 2005, where we have seen rising inventory and sales. Newlistings data had a slight increase this week from 60,066 to 60,819. You can have rising inventory, increasing sales and rising prices.
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