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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Housing inventory is down 40%. Buyers are paying the price

Housing Wire

Instead of making up for the shortfall, new listings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, new listing volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. year-over-year in January, the most growth in a single year since 2005.

Inventory 511
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 396
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Just look how lousy credit looked below in 2005, 2006 and 2007 — all before the job-loss recession in 2008. Demographics also play a role here.

Inventory 463
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing new listing data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June.

Inventory 511
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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

As you can see in the chart below, the credit markets broke in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, and then the job-loss recession of 2008 started, which made things much worse. The new listings data we track with Altos Research is trending at the lowest levels ever during the past few years, while back then it was running at accelerated levels.

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Cincinnati’s housing market in a word? Unpredictable

Housing Wire

Ive been doing this since 2005 and I tell clients that Ive never seen a market like this, so we have to navigate it together. A substantial drop in new listings is a contributing factor. 1, weekly new listings were at 410 but have since dropped to 186, although new listings tend to drop in December as the holidays approach.