Remove 2005 Remove Mortgage Remove New Listings
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 518
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Housing inventory is down 40%. Buyers are paying the price

Housing Wire

Instead of making up for the shortfall, new listings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, new listing volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. year-over-year in January, the most growth in a single year since 2005.

Inventory 511
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Cincinnati’s housing market in a word? Unpredictable

Housing Wire

The housing market got some much needed relief in the fall when mortgage rates began to drop, but it was short lived. Despite two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates rose again and remain stubbornly high. A substantial drop in new listings is a contributing factor.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

“The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. This means what we saw in 2005-2008 with the inventory spike was a historic event that hasn’t been replicated at any time in recent U.S. economic history. .

Inventory 531
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Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

Housing Wire

However, I will give you all the charts to show Uncle Dave that housing credit doesn’t look like it did in 2008 because the qualified mortgage (QM) law makes that impossible. None of that action has been happening for 14 years because the credit market changed after the 2010 qualified mortgage rule.