Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. economic recovery was a false story and that we were about to embark on a second housing bubble crash due to forbearance. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. What a year 2021 has been. The excellent.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing recession. That would be a positive for demand.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Have higher rates worked? Some data to consider: 1.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. This proves that the mass supply growth we saw from 2005-2007 was due to credit stress, not because the economy was in a recession; the U.S. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

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Housing Wire

MAY 14, 2023

The rise of active listings in this spring housing market reminds me of a zombie slowly rising from its grave. Yes, we found the seasonal bottom for housing inventory on April 14, but this year’s rise in active listings has been tepid at best. Can you imagine the housing market at that point?

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Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. HousingWire: Switching gears really quickly, have you received any feedback on your savagely unhealthy housing market piece ? The days on the market to sell a home is too low.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Understanding this data line and what it is trying to tell you will be more valuable than erroneously thinking the market is crashing and we’ll see a wave of foreclosures.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. Since the credit standards have improved post-2010, we shouldn’t see distressed sellers until a job loss recession happens, even if sales fall noticeably.

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Housing Wire

MAY 8, 2024

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. If you believe people sell to become homeless, then you’re in the group of people that have simply not read housing data for decades. The days on market were too low. And existing home sales crashed in 2022 from a peak of around 6.5

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. However, the housing market changed once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Homebuyers’ median household income increased by $19,000 this year from 2022, reaching $107,000, according to the National Association of Realtors ’ 2023 Profile of Homebuyers and Sellers. The report is an annual survey of homebuyers and sellers who closed transactions between July 2022 and June 2023.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is 12.6

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Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. The existing home sales print is catching up to our data, and this, to me, is the best story for housing in 2024 because when the housing market was savagely unhealthy in 2022, the NAR total active listings data was below 1 million.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. below the August 2021 estimate of 686,000.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. However, not to the degree we saw from 2005-2008. million listings.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

This is why I have called them efficient home sellers. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. From Census: For sale inventory and months’ supply : The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

On a positive note, however, the days on the market are no longer a teenager anymore: that metric grew from 18 days to 21 days. I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. This goes into my low housing bar theme for 2023 and why we need context with sales data. The housing market story is about where the 10-year yield is going.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

However, the people who say low inventory is fake news don’t realize that housing credit channels are very different from 2008, which has prevented total active listings from looking anything like 2008. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

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Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2023

As we can see below, from 2000, total active housing inventory rose from 2 million to 2.5 million before we saw the massive stress spike in supply from 2005 to 2007. The NAR data looks a bit backward, so if you want more fresh weekly data, I write the Housing Market Tracker every week on Sunday night to give you that information.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Looking at the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence data and builder stock prices, I can say the homebuilders got very lucky this time around in the middle of a housing recession. They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. Today, homeowners look great on paper.

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Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2022

This article is part of our housing market economic update series. At the end of this series, you can join us on May 10 for a Housing Market Update webinar. Homes that reach the market sell quickly, bidding wars are the new normal and the investor share of sales continues to rise.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

The credit markets were toxic back then, featuring loans with big recast payments which meant that you could have two people working full-time and still be at a credit risk. As you can see in the chart below, the credit markets broke in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, and then the job-loss recession of 2008 started, which made things much worse.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

Knowing that the housing crash addicts on YouTube , Twitter , Facebook , and Clubhouse would incorrectly push the negative year-over-year data spin, I wanted to get ahead of that narrative. Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

They have no emotional ties to houses and don’t need to sell a home to buy another one. They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales.

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Appraisal Buzz

MAY 17, 2021

Between 2002-2005 in many markets, the real estate market was scorching, much like it is today. As appraisers, we faced tremendous pressure from buyers, sellers, real estate agents, and loan officers during the previous run-up. We are seeing that as a profession again. Is this any different than last time?

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The truth here that nobody wants to talk about is that we didn’t have a massive sales credit boom in housing from 2020-2021 like we saw from 2002-2005. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

The one thing housing has going for it now is that we don’t have the speculative booming demand as we saw from 2002 to 2005. From Census: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 was $436,700. The builders have pricing power and they — along with home sellers — have pushed it very hard since 2020.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2022

In reality, as we talked about many times on HousingWire, housing data was going to moderate, find a base and work from that COVID-19 surge in the data. However, with that said, it’s still just an OK housing market for me based on how I view the new home sales market. This is 11.9 percent (±20.3 percent (±16.6

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Aggregate data from the housing market would confirm this. From the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “the commission on home sales has stayed basically flat for decades at 6%, split evenly between the buyer and seller agents.” What a truly wrong statement for which is there ample evidence to prove that it is incorrect.

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Lamacchia Realty

JUNE 21, 2022

For the past few years, with inventory at historically low levels , sellers were coming pretty close to naming their price and buyers were paying. The low rates made it possible to offer more on a home as the cost of borrowing was lower and therefore, sellers weren’t the ones competing, buyers were. The same will be true for sellers.

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