Remove 2005 Remove Construction Remove Sellers
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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. million in 2005.

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New home sales are up 28% — but don’t believe the hype

Housing Wire

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. months are under construction, 1.86

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008. What is going on here?

Inventory 526
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The new home sales recession continues

Housing Wire

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. months and above.

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New home sales defy recession calls

Housing Wire

They’re effective sellers and don’t want to create a backlog of completed units for sale because that would ruin their business model. As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018.

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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. months of the supply is active listings, 68K 5 months of the supply is still under construction, 280K 1.6 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 When supply is 4.3 When supply is 4.4

Inventory 501
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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

This is why I have called them efficient home sellers. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. months, the builders will pause construction. months, and we had a big miss on housing starts last week , mostly coming from multifamily construction. We are at 7.8

Inventory 524