Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. What a year 2021 has been. We started the year with many pundits saying that the U.S.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 months of homes they have under construction or have not even started yet. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the savagely unhealthy housing market. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The new home sales market is doing well as it really benefits from lower mortgage rates.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

The housing market shifted in March of this year. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. housing market. What is going on here?

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

This means the honey badger labor market will keep the Federal Reserve from pivoting anytime soon. . The labor market is actually running into a big theme of my economic work over the years. No country has a Dorian Gray labor market and the labor market deals with different dynamics as the baby boomers leave the workforce each year.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

I’m talking about housing market crash headlines. These dramatic peaks and valleys in the data have fed the demons of greed and fear that infest the minds our extreme housing bulls and the fierce housing market bears – leading to equally wild speculations about the future of U.S. The housing data has been wild this year.

Housing Market 545

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Housing Wire

JULY 24, 2024

Will the Federal Reserve pivot in time to save construction workers? This is key because, traditionally, residential construction workers are the first to lose their jobs before every recession since higher mortgage rates hit housing first. In more traditional markets, when the monthly supply is above 6.5 percent (±14.6

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months , this is just an OK market for the builders. months are under construction, 1.86

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2023

We had some good news this week for the housing market : purchase application data is up , the builder’s confidence index rose to beat estimates, and the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have fallen. million until 2020-2024, when demand would finally warrant that type of construction. percent (±16.9 percent (±11.2

Mortgage 508

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with.

Construction 370

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction. And more sales means more construction means more sales: A large share (38.5%, up from 28.5% This represents a supply of 3.3

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

Construction 514

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

One group has the advantage here while the other doesn’t: The new home sales market is minuscule versus the existing one, and the builders sell their homes like a commodity. But a bigger story here is that the builders’ biggest competition isn’t other builders — it’s the number of existing homes on the market. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. How I look at rates is intertwined with how I look at the bond market.

Housing Market 543

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders. months , this is just an OK market for builders. months, the builders will pause construction. The existing home market is only sitting at 3.3 We are at 7.8

Inventory 524

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 524

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

In June of this year, I raised the fifth recession red flag , putting the housing market in a traditional recession where sales, incomes, jobs, and production would be falling, which is happening now. The new home sales market gets hit harder by higher mortgage rates than the existing home market.

Mortgage 533

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

To be honest here, the new home sales market is stuck for now. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months, this is an OK market for the builders. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. When supply is 6.5

Construction 435

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 435

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5 Inventory has been falling for years.

Housing Market 370

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Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

First, however, remember that the housing market is still in a recession, which I wrote about on June 16, 2022. The housing market is still in a recession until housing permits rise in duration. As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. percent (±13.3

Mortgage 521

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. The market is savagely unhealthy and needs balance; this is what we call balance! As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Guess what happened in March?

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 months of supply.

Construction 526

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month month supply – inching ever closer to the six-month supply sweet spot that suggests a balanced market. The West came in second at a 17.3% decline, while the South and Northeast both fell less than 3%.

Construction 438

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 6, 2024

The New York City Council this week narrowly passed a housing plan backed by Mayor Eric Adams (D) known as City of Yes, which calls for the construction of 82,000 new homes over the next 15 years in the Big Apple. But the plan backed by a mayor who is currently embroiled in a high-profile legal case in which the U.S.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. We didn’t have the credit stress issue from 2010-2023 like we did from 2005 through 2008. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

Inventory 545

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. In reality, housing economic modeling takes a lot of work, and some people instead choose marketing gimmicks to make a name for themselves. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

Inventory 501

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 501

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. housing market for multiple reasons, Redfin said. Some young families are turning to new construction, and others are renting homes.” years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. As you can see below, the housing demand data from 2002 to 2005 was never apparent in any housing data lines from 2018 to 2022.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. I wrote about this topic last year: Why we can’t build our way out of this hot housing market.

Inventory 514

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Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

commercial spaces/building and residential homes/townhomes) and inconsistent transactional processes, fragmentation in the market has prevented real-estate from adopting technology as quickly as other sectors – until now. While each of these digital companies successfully addressed a problem in the market, other pain points still existed.

Real Estate 397

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Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2023

What we see in this latest starts report is encouraging, as a record number of 5-units are still in construction and anything that gets finished is positive against inflation. As you can see, the 1974 recession destroyed the 5-unit construction production. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production. percent (±15.5

Mortgage 521

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today. This is 17.2

Construction 496

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

The market has changed with rates so much higher, but for the most part, the builders are managing the recent weakness in sales as best they can. The monthly supply data for new homes often get mixed up with the existing home sales market. We don’t say the new home sales market supply is the existing home sales market.

Inventory 488

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 The housing market has been in a recession since June of this year, and we have other data lines that can be more useful in gauging the new home sales sector. months, and below, this is an excellent market for builders. months , this is an OK market for the builders.

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 488