Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

I always try to focus people on the total inventory data until we get inventory back into a range of 1.52-1.93 HousingWire: To add to that, since housing is in an inventory shortage, the market has changed, so the good news is inventory is growing. Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse. Why do I call it a housing recession?

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. As we can see below, the purchase application data had four years of growth, peaking in 2005 and then collapsing. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. Housing inventory.

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Housing Wire

JULY 24, 2024

Will the Federal Reserve pivot in time to save construction workers? This is key because, traditionally, residential construction workers are the first to lose their jobs before every recession since higher mortgage rates hit housing first. months , the builders will pause construction. months 274K homes under construction = 5.3

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

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Contracts Construction Supply Chain Marketing 545

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

That’s right — for all the hype of massive housing inventory coming from the builders, today we sit here still trying to work back to pre-COVID-19 levels with just 76,000 completed homes ready to be moved. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. When supply is over 6.5

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 524

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. Homebuilders’ for-sale inventory and months’ supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 439,000. However, this isn’t how inventory grows in America.

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Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 501

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. Housing peaked in 2005 and then declined for many years. Have more questions for Logan?

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

As someone concerned about the housing inflation story since inventory channels broke to all-time lows in 2020, I am frustrated by this housing completion data. All housing inventory data points to the second factor. They do not care about inventory levels being near record lows in the existing home sales marketplace.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Housing Market 533

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

Construction 514

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 514

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month a record low in the series dating back to 1963, while the share of homes sold-but-not-yet-started was at a level only seen during the housing bubble in 2005.” The West came in second at a 17.3%

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Development 468

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. They are good at selling their inventory much quicker than existing home sellers, who might still be stingy on prices. months are under construction, 1.86

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Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

You know, the one that says we have too much inventory and millions of vacant homes in the U.S.? According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. 267,000 homes are under construction, still. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 501

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

Some people prefer something other than the current active existing inventory. As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Now on to the report. This represents a supply of 6.7

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Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 516

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

Second, because of the downtrend in inventory since 2014 and the demand pick-up we will see in the years 2020-2024, we had a risk of home prices accelerating too much. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005. First, total home sales should be 6.2

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Last year we had monthly existing home sales collapse back to 2007 levels, except this time around, NAR has total inventory at 970,000 and not over 4 million. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. months of supply.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 526

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. However, this is much different than what we saw from 2002-to 2005.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. months and above.

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Construction Housing Market Sellers Real Estate 370

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005. NAR: Total Inventory.

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Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Construction 540

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally?adjusted Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months are completed homes.

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Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. Homeowner tenure is projected to remain flat, but a larger share of homeowners remaining in place is also contributing to an inventory shortage, according to the report. Some young families are turning to new construction, and others are renting homes.”

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Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 488

Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. ” Ruben Gonzalez, Keller Williams chief economist, added that he is “optimistic” new home construction will pick up.

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Supply Chain Inventory Buyers Realtors 448

Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

As you can see in the chart below, this looks nothing like the housing peak in 2005 and the crash toward 2008. Currently, new home sales have been trending better as the builders are taking advantage of low existing inventory. However, because of the COVID-19 delays, we are still working through a backlog of homes under construction.

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Mortgage Construction Supply Chain Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

AUGUST 3, 2021

Home prices continue to increase as national inventory levels remain low heading into August. growth is the largest annual growth reported since 1979, as supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs continue to rise, said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. . Home prices increased 2.3% ” The 17.2%

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Buyers Inventory Realtors Contracts 514

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 448

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. From Census: The seasonally?adjusted When supply is 4.4

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Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 435

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today. This is 17.2

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 496

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing Inventory. Home price s. million in 2023. We are at 8.6

Housing Market 543

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 543

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. While I have never been a housing construction boom guy because mature economies typically don’t have a construction boom, the fact that permits are keeping their uptrend is a big positive for the United States of America.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 534

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 This represents a supply of 8.9 When supply is 4.3

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Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years. HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Even though multifamily construction has boosted housing starts recently, the slowdown in single-family purchases hasn’t been anything too dramatic yet. The one thing housing has going for it now is that we don’t have the speculative booming demand as we saw from 2002 to 2005. percent (±12.9 percent (±11.3 When supply is 4.4

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 370

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

The peak in this metric for this century was in 2005, and the real bottom was 2008. months, builders pull back, and new construction stalls. We saw this in 2018 and then spent the entire year of 2019 selling off the excess inventory. This level of inventory means new home sales are doing ok, not great.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Design 545

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

Housing inventory and prices. Given the low interest rates that are driving demand, housing inventory has become a rising concern. MBA Associate Vice President of Industry Analysis Joel Kan explained that current inventory rests at just a three-month supply. trillion in 2005.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 435

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

We haven’t seen that yet; the -12% YoY decline is a noticeable weakness, but nothing too dramatic yet like what we saw from 2005-to 2008. HousingWire: Will inventory finally break the streak and be positive year over year? New home sales fall, which will create a slowdown in housing construction.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing Construction 370

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Also, the market we have today doesn’t look like the credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. I have never believed in the housing construction boom premise as mature economies don’t have construction booms with slowing population growth. In fact, a few months ago I talked about inventory falling again should be the concern going out.

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Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 544